Summary 7/28/04 - Current Homeland Defense threat level is YELLOW
1. Attack windows - Many dates have been put forth here on TM based upon Islamic / Jihadist ‘special days’, numerology and rumor. Fortunately these dates have proven to be false (although some evaluation of the relation of 911 to 311 is useful). Therefore we may need to review and look for other indicators of impending attack such as changes in communications / chatter levels, etc. The best understanding I have is that the next round of attacks will be sequential with Italy being hit first, then England and the US. If this threatened pattern appears, then we could look more closely at the activity at the time to try to narrow the attack window further.
Italy. - Terrorist group Brigades of Abu Haf al-Masri has issued a third threat (7/28/04) against Italy since the end of the so-called ‘truce’. This threat says that war has been declared against Europe and that Italy will be the first to be hit. Rome has been specifically mentioned in other threats. Previous threats issued July 2, 16, 26. Additional threat from Tawhid on July 25th threatens Australia and reiterates al Masri threat to Italy (thanks Vel). In the face of these numerous threats, if something doesn’t happen soon, then al-Masri and AQ risks losing face.
England - nothing new to report
Japan – nothing new to report
U.S. - Jihadist ‘chatter’ has been on-going for many months about the impending death strike to America. The first significant opportunity is the Democrat convention in Boston. For AQ, there would be many pros and cons to such a strike
Pros - Heavy news coverage Concentration of political power in small area Potential to influence national election
Cons - Heavy security, higher risk of detection May cause support for the President and not Kerry (who is viewed to be more sympathetic/softer).
AQ has shown savvy towards timing an attack to influence the electorate as shown in the Madrid bombings. However I think they misjudged American response to 911 and are leery to strike at a sympathetic party. Homeland security seems to think it will be ‘soon’. Definitely expect an attempt prior to the national elections in November.
Australia – No new threats issued today.
Turkey – On 28 July 2004, news services reported that airport security went to level ‘yellow’ second highest based upon threat that AQ would launch a 911 style attack or blow-up an airliner.
2. Attack method.
A. Jihadist chatter suggests something big and devastating to hit US. This has been a common theme. There has been significant discourse on whether AQ has small nukes or the capability to deploy them. No significant proof has been provided to prove they possess them.
B. Discussion in TM, internet and from national news sources indicate continued AQ interest in aircraft hijacking. Thoughts range from using far more people to putting together a ‘weapon’ of some sort in a toilet. This weapon could be an explosive device or a chemical of some sort. Another aspect is having more terrorists on the plane to help keep the passengers subdued if they can take over the craft. One piece of the puzzle missing is how the terrorists would get past the reinforced doors to the cockpit.
C. Personnel - A more disturbing development are reports of considerable numbers of arabs crossing the US - Mexican border. This could be why the US Border Patrol is increasing its attention to the southern border. Southern Arizona has been considered by some to be a terrorist haven area. More people would permit more car/truck suicide bomb attacks that if dozens were to occur simultaneously, would cause substantial panic, as well as sustained attacks. The US Moslem community is absent martyr complex that is prevalent with the Middle East jihadists, thus people will to commit suicide bombings have to be ‘imported’. With the exception of 911, the car bomb has continued to be the weapon of choice, needing only willing martyrs and the careful accumulation of explosive material (fertilizer, etc).
A South African woman, Farida Goolam Mohamed Ahmed, was picked up in Texas at McAllen Miller International Airport on July 19. She had illegally entered the US via Mexico and is suspected of being associated with Al-Qada.
The American Muslim Holy Land Foundation for Relief and Development charity and seven of its officers were charged Tuesday with providing millions of dollars in support to Hamas, a Palestinian terrorist organization blamed for dozens of suicide bomber attacks in Israel.
Michael Wagner, 44, of San Diego, was arrested this week and said he had knowledge of terrorist activities and people and groups tied to al-Qaida and the Taliban. Wagner also said that he knew about things in the Muslim communities in San Diego that would interest federal authorities.
4. Significant meetings canceled: A. OPEC’s meeting in Vienna Austria has been canceled, unprecedented.
5. Security has been heightened in specific cities - Boston, NYC, Philly, Seattle, LA, DC. Trains and buses searched - Significant development in east coast towns. Some of this is in response to the upcoming democrat and republican conventions. Ports are getting a lot more security scrutiny. Diving teams are activity looking for mines, Coast Guard turning away ships as necessary. However, this appears to be in part in line with scheduled increased security posture and not necessarily in response to a specific threat.
6. Military operations. The fleet is deployed conducting various maneuvers and exercises. The F-117s are still deployed in S. Korea. The first ABM missiles are being installed in Alaska.
Iran – Reuters and Israeli news agencies reporting that Iran is trying to purchase key components for the nuclear weapons program from Russia. Israel is rumored to be sharpening its talons for a preemptive strike. Iran is threatening total destruction of Israel if they attack. What is unknown is what degree of cooperation the US will provide. Key indicator to watch are deployments of additional carriers to the ME region to back up US forces quickly if Israel strikes independently. US ground forces are insufficient to maintain Iraq security and attack into Iran. Any US strike into Iran likely to be via aircraft, special ops and cruise missiles.
Syria – Information suggests that they are supplying terrorists with rocket components to attack Israeli targets from S. Lebanon.
7. Dept of Homeland Scty. Nothing new since congressional and public briefings.
Great summery! It well appreciated. Thanks!
Thank you.
Thank you for all your hard work, we truely appreciate it.
Excellent post Godzilla! Your own opinions are welcome and help us to fashion our own opinions as well - again, great job!
"Zilla, your summaries are much appreciated. Thanks so much for investing the time to do them.
Excellent summary. Thanks.
MUCH APPRECIATED. Please put me on your ping list, if you have one.
Tariq al-Qods="Teotwawki"
http://www.haaretzdaily.com/hasen/spages/457490.html
Hezbollah warns Israel against extremist attack on Al-Aqsa Mosque
By The Associated Press
BEIRUT - The leader of the Hezbollah militant group, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, warned Israel on Wednesday of the most dire consequences if Jewish extremists were to harm Al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem.
He was commenting on Public Security Minister Tzachi Hanegbi's weekend statement that there was a growing threat of such an attack. Hanegbi said he did not know of a specific plot to attack the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound - the third holiest shrine in Islam - but intelligence assessments said the danger of such an action was growing.
Hanegbi said Jewish fanatics might attack the mosque to act as "a catalyst for change to the whole political process."
(snip)
Thanks Godzilla. You do an excellent job of summarizing events. Do you have a ping list when you post a new summary? If so, would you please add me. If not, will you start one? Pleaseeeeeeeeeeee.
Great summary. Bumping that.
What a helpful summary. Thanks for the hard work.