First Contact Within 20 Years: Shostak

Space Daily ^ | Mountain View CA (SPX) Jul 22, 2004

[ckilmer]

EXO WORLDS

First Contact Within 20 Years: Shostak

Will the 20s see ET roar onto center stage Mountain View CA (SPX) Jul 22, 2004 If Intelligent life exists elsewhere in our galaxy, advances in computer processing power and radio telescope technology will ensure we detect their transmissions within two decades. That's the bold prediction from a leading light at the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence Institute in Mountain View, California. Seth Shostak, the SETI Institute's senior astronomer, based his prediction on accepted assumptions about the likelihood of alien civilisations existing, combined with projected increases in computing power.

Shostak, whose calculations will be published in a forthcoming edition of the space science journal Acta Astronautica, first estimated the number of alien civilisations in our galaxy that might currently be broadcasting radio signals.

For this he used a formula created in 1961 by astronomer Frank Drake which factors in aspects such the number of stars with planets, how many of those planets might be expected to have life, and so on. Shostak came up with an estimate of between 10,000 and 1 million radio transmitters in the galaxy.

To find them will involve observing and inspecting radio emissions from most of the galaxy's 100 billion stars. The time necessary for this formidable task can be estimated from the capabilities of planned radio telescopes- such as SETI's 1-hectare Allen Telescope Array and the internationally run Square Kilometre Array- and expected increases in the power of the microchips that sift through radio signals from space.

Shostak assumed that computer processing power will continue to double every 18 months until 2015- as it has done for the past 40 years. From then on, he assumes a more conservative doubling time of 36 months as transistors get too small to scale down as easily as they have till now.

Within a generation, radio emissions from enough stars will be observed and analysed to find the first alien civilisation, Shostak estimates. But because they will probably be between 200 and 1000 light years away, sending a radio message back will take centuries.

Paul Shuch, executive director of the SETI League, a separate organisation in New Jersey, says Shostak's prediction ignores one important factor. "It is altogether reasonable to project the development of human technology, based upon past trends and planned investments," he says.

"But predicting the date, the decade or even the century of contact is another matter because the 'other end' of the communications link is completely out of our hands. It would be nice to think we know something about the existence, distribution, technology and motivation of our potential communications partners in space, but in fact, we don't."

Shostak admits that there are myriad uncertainties surrounding his prediction, but he defends the basis on which he made it. "I have made this prediction using the assumptions adopted by the SETI research community itself."

[GeronL]

I do SETI with a radio telescope

Can you say that with a really high-pitched squeaky geeky voice??

[Ronin]

Actually I have not paid too much attention to it since I set it up about a year ago. Now, when I go to the SIA website and try to log in, they don't know me.

When I try to get my ID via email, the page says they don't have a listing of my email address...

But I'll try again now... maybe I can figure this out.

[Capitalism2003]

I hope EVERYONE on Free Republic has installed the SETI screensaver Use your spare computer power when you aren't using it to search for aliens!!!

[boris]

"However, GR had to be modified, first by Einstein himself with SR. So it isn't out of the question that GR fails the test of time. It could be wrong. It's already required modification.

Also, neither GR nor SR explain the flat plane of the orbits of all of our planets around our Sun.

Two things can explain those flat, in-line orbits: our solar system sits perfectly still in space relative to its position 5 minutes ago - OR - Gravity is substantially faster than Light.

If the latter, then Newton wins. If the former, then Einstein wins (presuming that the rest of GR and SR hold up)."

Every word in your post is wrong. I will not waste time with all of them. I will note--for example--that SR preceded GR and hence GR could not be "modified" by SR. Your post demonstrates a profound misunderstanding--rather a complex of profound misunderstandings--of basic physics as understood in the 21st century.

Quant suff.

--Boris

[RadioAstronomer]

No, I'd have to disagree with that claim. For theories, Newton says Gravity is almost infinitely fast; Einstein says that Gravity is at the speed of light. While both men are credible, they clearly disagree. Thus, "all" credible theories don't have Gravity at the speed of Light.

Nope. Classical (Newtonian) mechanics was superseeded by GR.

As for indications, a simple look at the flat, in-line orbits of all of our planets around our Sun indicates that either our solar system is *not* spinning through space as the Milky Way rotates, *or* that gravity is faster than light. Why?! Because we "see" the Sun from Earth not where the Sun/Earth are currently, but from where the Sun/Earth were located 8.3 minutes ago (takes Light that long to make the trip)...however, we orbit in line with where the Sun is located *now*, as does each of the planets...

Huh? Actually, the Glactic plane is almost 60 degrees offset from our equatorial plane which is offset by 23.5 degrees from our orbit plane.

The Earth is "falling" around the Sun just like a satellite (including the Moon) is falling around the Earth.

[RadioAstronomer]

My wife and I have just started building a new house with some actual land with few houses and even less lighting around, and I'm looking into building my own telescope. I need a new hobby. Used to have one as a kid when my Dad worked in the space program. I need to get back into it, again...

Way cool. There are lots of web sites on building scopes. :-)

[Southack]

Also, neither GR nor SR explain the flat plane of the orbits of all of our planets around our Sun.

Two things can explain those flat, in-line orbits: our solar system sits perfectly still in space relative to its position 5 minutes ago - OR - Gravity is substantially faster than Light.

If the latter, then Newton wins. If the former, then Einstein wins (presuming that the rest of GR and SR hold up). - Southack

"Every word in your post is wrong." - Boris

First, did you miss post #40?!

Second, GR doesn't explain why the Earth accelerates toward a point 20 arc seconds in front of the visible Sun, where the Sun will appear to be in 8.3 minutes.

What GR does is hold that Gravity is geometry; the warping of space and time by mass.

In contrast, Newton treated Gravity as a Force; something that propagated (as does sound, light, etc.).

With Einstein's GR, you can't accurately calculate planetary orbits; you can't even explain the direction of acceleration precisely.

To accurately calculate planetary orbits, you have to presume that Gravity is infinite, or nearly so, ala Newton.

5 Legislative Days Left Until The AWB Expires

[RadioAstronomer]

I think the Europa-type of planet could be the best chance at harboring life because the protective ice shell will keep life safe from a number of cosmic hazards as well as create a large orbital range for life-supporting status. Even an eccentric orbit for such a planet could still support life which gives the potential of such a planet for having a large habitable zone around it's parent star(s). So a reasonably intelligent species of water dwellers could develop a civilization under such a blanket of ice and we would never hear radio transmissions from them and we wouldn't see any signs of life on such a planet with even our most powerful telescopes.

Actually SETI is not looking for intelligence per se. It is looking for a tool building species. (Indicates intelligence)

[RadioAstronomer]

Can you say that with a really high-pitched squeaky geeky voice??

Hehehe. :-)

[Southack]

As for indications, a simple look at the flat, in-line orbits of all of our planets around our Sun indicates that either our solar system is *not* spinning through space as the Milky Way rotates, *or* that gravity is faster than light. Why?! Because we "see" the Sun from Earth not where the Sun/Earth are currently, but from where the Sun/Earth were located 8.3 minutes ago (takes Light that long to make the trip)...however, we orbit in line with where the Sun is located *now*, as does each of the planets... - Southack

"Huh? Actually, the Glactic plane is almost 60 degrees offset from our equatorial plane which is offset by 23.5 degrees from our orbit plane." - RadioAstronomer

But that's just it; the Sun's equatorial plane is in line with the Earth's orbital plane around the Sun, which is in line with Mars' orbit around the Sun, which is in line with Jupiter's orbit around the Sun, etc.

Yet it takes light longer to reach Mars and Jupiter than it does to reach the Earth. If Gravity was as slow as light, then Mars would orbit around a lower plane, where the Sun was much longer than 8.3 minutes ago; even more so for Jupiter.

Planetary orbits would be stacked like a wedding cake, in layers, rather than flat like a pancake...if Gravity was as slow as light.

5 Legislative Days Left Until The AWB Expires

[RadioAstronomer]

Also, neither GR nor SR explain the flat plane of the orbits of all of our planets around our Sun.

Think Accretion Disk.

[GeronL]

"Huh? Actually, the Glactic plane is almost 60 degrees offset from our equatorial plane which is offset by 23.5 degrees from our orbit plane." - RadioAstronomer

So, did sombody bump into it or sumthun? der...

[Southack]

"Think Accretion Disk."

OK, but how do I explain to myself how an accretion disk can even exist if nothing is faster than light?

The escape velocity from a black hole is greater than the speed of light, right?! Yet the *flat* matter of the accretion disk revolving around the black hole, and growing, is *outside* said black hole.

5 Legislative Days Left Until The AWB Expires

[wideminded]

My radio telescope is looking at over 3 million channels simultaneously.

How big is a channel?

[RadioAstronomer]

Take a look at these sites:

http://archive.ncsa.uiuc.edu/Cyberia/NumRel/GenRelativity.html

http://archive.ncsa.uiuc.edu/Cyberia/NumRel/GravWaves.html

http://www.astro.ucla.edu/~wright/cosmolog.htm

[xp38]

There is a logical explanation to no contact. Uhura and the Federation prefer to use Sub Space Communications.

[RadioAstronomer]

Remember the accretion disk of a black hole is outside the event horizon.

[RightWhale]

Hoagland is on Coast this hour.

Ammonia on Mars = life

Maybe he'll discuss this.

[RadioAstronomer]

So, did sombody bump into it or sumthun? der...

Something did bump into the Earth. This is the best model we have on the formation of the moon. As far as the tilt of our equatorial plane versus the glalactic plane, it was the initial plane of the accretion disk of the early formation of the solar system.

[RadioAstronomer]

close to One Hz :-)