Posted on 07/22/2004 12:30:19 PM PDT by Dales
I have taken over maintaining the ping list for the ECB, so if you want on, let me know. Thank you Neets for all your help with it!
Bump the best PoliSci 201 seminar in the country.
Thanks... but I think it will all boil down to one thing:
Gas prices.
I am not good as doing charts, but I have been finding an almost direct correlation between Bush's approval numbers and the price of gasoline. Gas goes up, Bush goes down... Gas goes down, Bush goes up...
We gotta move those numbers!
add me to your list pls
Thanks for the ping, Dales.
I want on. Thanks
These numbers are not making me feel better.
I hit your link for Florida at the bottom (where you total up the EVs) and it took me to your site. I noticed that you're posting your analysis for 7/15 here that rates Florida as Slight for Kerry, but your site has another entry for 7/20 that puts the state back into Tossup status. Did you find some problem with your 7/20 data?
My big question on Minnesota: what are pollsters using to model turnout, or are they just taking what the sample gives them and screening for likelies? 2002 was a sea change for the state, an acceleration of what might otherwise have been gradual Republicanization, but turnout was unusual because of Wellstone. Still, it seems silly to think that it will act like it did in 2000.
I would imagine that your next 2-4 updates will be very ugly indeed with the DNC bounce hitting. Hopefully by week 3 we will see some movement back toward Bush.
As long as the movement is back towards Bush throughout August, we can hope for a bump from the RNC in September.
Still maintain when all is said and done that your "Approval gap" analysis will prove out, and Bush will end up winning. No longer going to predict an electoral blowout, but neither do I expect an all night gut wrencher like 2000.
My bad - I got the date of your latest Florida analysis wrong. It was 7/22 instead of 7/20.
Agreed the numbers are not pretty right now, and they will get much worse after the Convention, but take heart -- the Repub Convention will give Bush as big or bigger a bounce.
Take the election serious and work hard for BUsh, but don't don the worry cap just yet. If it is still this ugly in October then start worrying.
This election is a referendum on Bush -- as long as Bush approval hovers around 50% he has the inside track to reelection.
Take a deep breath and remember this number from 1988 --- at the end of JULY 1988 after the Dem Convention Michael Dukakis led George Bush by 17 POINTS.
Excellent analysis, as always. I'd like to throw these considerations in regarding Florida: 1) The premature call for Gore in 2000 did depress the pro-Bush turnout in the panhandle; even Bob Beckel said Bush lost as many as 10K votes. This won't happen this year. 2) The lack of Lieberman will keep the south FL, Jewish pro-Dem vote down. MHO.
Thanks...
Since this 'snapshot', I have updated three states: Ohio, Florida, and Missouri.
You are already on it?
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