Posted on 07/19/2004 4:17:26 PM PDT by bd476
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A strong earthquake occurred at 08:01:48 (UTC) on Monday, July 19, 2004. The magnitude 6.3 event has been located in the VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION. (This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.)
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"Mon Jul 19, 9:35 AM ET
STRASBOURG (AFP) - A major earthquake, measuring 6.2 points on the Richter scale, hit Vancouver Island off the Pacific coast of Canada, a French seismological institute reported.
The epicentre of the earthquake was at 49.69 degrees North and 126.90 degrees West, about 300 kilometres (190 miles) northwest of Vancouver city, the Strasbourg-based Observatory of Science and the Earth said in a statement..." (End Yahoo.com News Excerpt)
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(Excerpt) Read more at earthquake.usgs.gov ...
I have a friend who lives in Comox on the Island (a lot further North than Victoria). It woke them all up, but they had no damage.
Ping
What exactly is the prediction?
The prediction is for a magnitude 6.4 or greater earthquake to occur between January 5 and September 5, 2004, within a 12,440 sq. miles area of southern California that includes portions of the eastern Mojave Desert, Coachella Valley, Imperial Valley (San Bernardino, Riverside and Imperial Counties) and eastern San Diego County.
Is the prediction true? Are we going to have a large earthquake?
We don't know. The Keilis-Borork team has just begun the test of this prediction technique and has not yet issued enough predictions to evaluate whether or not the approach is successful.
It's notable because of the group's apparent success in predicting the magnitude 8.1 earthquake in Hokkaido, Japan in September 2003 and last December's magnitude 6.5 San Simeon quake.
However, those predictions also covered very large areas so there was some chance the earthquakes would have happened anyway. Many more predictions will be needed to determine if this technique is providing a more accurate prediction than we can get anyway from our past history.
Moreover, the current prediction region encloses many hazardous faults including portions of the San Andreas, San Jacinto, Imperial and Elsinore, plus the desert region that hosted the Landers and Hector Mines earthquakes, and thus has a 10-15% chance of a M 6.4 earthquake in any 9 month period.
An earthquake on any one of these faults would count as a success, so even if the prediction is correct, you cannot know if your community will be affected.
How did they come up with the prediction?
The prediction method the Keilis-Borok team uses is based on identifying patterns of small earthquakes as precursors to large ones. These small earthquakes occurred last fall and the prediction window is 9 months from the end of that earthquake cluster.
Are USGS scientists ignoring the prediction?
No. The work of the Keilis-Borok team is a legitimate approach to earthquake prediction research. However, the method is unproven, and it will take much additional study, and many additional trial predictions, before it can be shown whether it works, and how well.
If the method, or one like it, is eventually shown to work, it will demonstrate that the Earth's crust contains information about upcoming large shocks. This would be an important finding, and would spur additional research that might someday lead to societally useful predictions.
What special action is California taking based on this prediction?
In February, experts from U.S. Geological Survey, California Geological Survey, the Southern California Earthquake Center and others reviewed the Keilis-Borok prediction.
Dr. Keilis-Borok and his colleagues presented their methods and findings and engaged in frank discussion with about 30 invited scientists and public officials.
The California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council attended and concluded that the Keilis-Borok methodology is a legitimate approach in earthquake prediction research, but that, while the prediction serves as a reminder for vigilance in earthquake-prone areas, the results do not at this time warrant any special public policy actions in California.
What can Southern Californians learn from this prediction?
Southern Californians should take the Keilis-Borok predictions as strong reminders that earthquakes have happened and will happen again in the region. And they should keep doing what the earthquake community has preached for many years: Prepare for the inevitable.
Whether they happen in the next 9 months or the next 9 years, earthquakes in California will happen, and we need to be ready.
Whether it's called preparedness, mitigation, sustainability, earthquake resistance, or disaster-resiliency, it all means the same thing. Earthquakes will happen and a prepared California is a safer California.
Californians live in earthquake country, but they can prepare by ensuring that building codes are up-to-date and enforced, that older buildings are properly retrofitted to withstand earthquakes and that families and individuals are prepared.
By reading and following the advice in a great new guide, "Putting Down Roots in Earthquake Country" you'll go a long way towards being prepared for California's inevitable temblors.
Until then, rest assured that USGS and its partners are doing everything possible to understand and monitor how the earth works and to reduce earthquake risk."
Information about the Keilis-Borok California Earthquake Prediction
Dang... a sixer... that'll get yer attention.
Looks like it's right up near Campbell River, where Dad and D were just a little while back.
Not enought to help with traffic around here ;~D
I was a bit cynical about quakes until I was awakened by a 5.7 quake. Thankfully only one neighbor saw me dash out the front door in my jammies.
The 1994 Northridge quake was beyond comprehension. The block on my street had nine buildings severely damaged and eventually all had to be torn down.
Unfortunately I missed seeing that movie.
Living in San Diego I thought the same thing it's been so fricking hot lately fires all over now it's time for an Earthquake, I am debating taking some of my breakables off the shelves and buying some velcro for the T.V's and Computers, don't want to seem paranoid but with all this seismic activity it wouldn't be out of the question that a major earthquake will be knocking on the door sooner than later...
There are no recent studies about them. The latest paper is dated 29 October 2003.
Some scientist has it predicted by Sept here in SoCal. Hope he's wrong. Seriesly
Perhaps when there are two distinct fault lines involved they give each a unique "quake" status. Then "fore" and "after" shocks would apply only to precedent or subsequent quakes occurring on the same fault line.
Just a guess however.
We went through the 6.8 quake in the Seattle area in '01. Not a fan of earthquakes after that.
Hmmmm...felt nothing in Tacoma.
It was UCLA scientists who published the research after successfully predicting another quake:
It happens to be directly north of my location in Eastern WA state.
Some people here felt the Seattle 7.1 quake, others didn't. That quake a couple of years ago was a little closer and much more powerful. I actually felt it quite strongly, as I was on some filled-in land that shook like jelly.
That distant on Victoria location
and the 13 mile depth would probably explain the lack of sensations in Seattle.
It still likely cocked the Seattle area faults all the more.
Wheeee.
Still prayer time!
This quake wasn't nearly large enough to produce a tsunami.
Holy Moly. No Val. I didn't feel it. But then there is a lot of space between Vancouver Island and Kelowna including several miles of Ocean.
And a 5.9 in the exact same spot 4 days ago.
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