I've heard that they have recently released more of the documents that show there was a major problem with Operation Olympic. Top Allied brass was planning for a defense strength of about 360,000 troops maximum in Kyushu. These secret documents show that Truman and his planners found that the Japanese defense forces had 579,000 in Kyushu. This included 10 combat divisions. The numbers were rising. This was in the summer, for a planned invasion on Nov 1. Operation Olympic forces totalled 770,000 including the Naval personnel that would not be going to the beach.
We had a planned invasion, that was roughly equal to the repelling forces on the ground. And they were armed, military forces, not farmers. The defense forces were three times the numbers planned on, and roughly equal to our own forces.
You make the call as Truman. You can:
1) Call the operation off. Hope that conventional bombing and the blockade will make a people with the will to defend their island beyond our our ability to predict their behavior will quit. Of course millions of Japanese will starve. Hundreds of thousands of their POWs may either starve or be killed.
2) Continue with the operation. Hope that we get "lucky" on a macro level. Iwo Jima was one for one. Hope the Japanese homeland will be less? Hundreds of thousands of Japanese military will die. Hundreds of thousands of Allied troops will die. The house to house fighting may still take place, with much smaller force on the Allied side than planned. We will have to use more conventional bombing and continue the blockade. Millions of Japanese may die, from starvation or war. Hundreds of thousands of Allied POWs may be starved or killed.
3) Upset everyone's apple cart. Use nukes. Make the Russians fear us. Take Patton seriously. Make the Japanese realize they are DEFEATED. With a big D. Make the Japanese realize that victory is not the goal, continued existance is. Of course the Japanese still did not have to surrender, but now we could have made more nukes by the time of Operation Olympic, and been able to use them tactically, if necessary.
Of course Truman made the right decision for our country. Japan sensibilities were not his worry. We won the war. Japan surrendered, Russia did not interfere, we did not have to do Operation Olympic. We've been respected (feared) by our "friends" and foes in the world for the last 60 years.
So what part of success are we arguing about?
DK
"So what part of success are we arguing about?"
I think the only one arguing about success is BMC. For some reason, he holds the belief the use of nukes is never justified. Of which I disagree with him\her on this assertion. I think when faced with the very real massive fatalities on both sides if Americans had decided to continue with Operation Olympic, the use of nukes was very much justified. The Military Force the Japanese were planning to use was not the only concern. There was also major concern for Japan's possible use of civilians as well. I truly believe the entire country of Japan, at least at one point, would have committed mass suicide under the deception of Victory for the masses.