...Beijing is becoming increasingly frustrated that the United States does not regard this matter as urgent, said Carpenter, vice president of defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute in Washington.
If United States wants to avoid the line of fire, according to Carpenter, we should make clear to Taiwan that although we support negotiations, we will not defend Taiwan in the event of a military conflict.
We don't want to fight a war with China over Taiwan, he concluded, and that may be the bottom line.
I cannot believe a member of the Cato Institute is spewing this defeatist blather. China is playing the blustering bully as usual. Do any of US need reminding of how one deals with bullies? For pete's sake, it's quite obvious in history's hindsight (both ancient and recent) that a strong show of resolve is what's needed. Simply talk a quiet game while showing them through our actions that we don't give a damn for their crude saber-rattling. Pay lip service to the One China policy while letting it linger on in name only, reinforcing Taiwan's defences for all we're worth, while paying them every diplomatic courtesy possible; welcoming their officials and citizens to our shores and carrying out joint defensive exercises and so on. It would also be a good idea to systematically cut off their access to our dual-use technology and eliminate any military cooperation with the PRC.
If we are serious about avoiding war in the Taiwan Straits than a good, solid show of firm resolve is the only guarantor of "peace" that has ever been shown to work (hello Mr. Chamberlain, hello?),
"If we are serious about avoiding war in the Taiwan Straits than a good, solid show of firm resolve is the only guarantor of "peace" that has ever been shown to work (hello Mr. Chamberlain, hello?),"
I agree with your entire post, especially the final observation.
That said, I've noticed for the past decade the Chinese offer up vague mutterings, vague threats, on a regular basis. I suspect its designed much more for internal comsumption than anything else.
Even the Chinese admit, grudgingly, that they have no viable means of attacking Taiwan sucessfully at this time, nor will they for another half dozen years, minimum. Short of nuking Taiwan, there isn't anything they can do but mutter ongoing threats of "doom" for Taiwan, and any that interfere.
Big sign of weakness, in my opinion. After fifty years of this stuff, eventually you gotta take it with a big grain of salt.
When they invade Taiwan, I expect we will boycott the olympics.
I strongly agree that such is the best course generally and even with Beijing.
However, we have a very thin line that is likely workable with Beijing. It's a bit of a catch 22.
Beijing HATES being confronted and treats it as a huge insult etc. etc. etc.
But they will also take advantage of weakness and DISRESPECT US AND HATE US *MORE* FOR OUR WEAKNESS--KIND OF NOT BEING A WORTHY OPPONENT.
And diplomatic/military fencing is much more ingrained at an art level in China than anywhere in the West.
I'm sure the french and germans will back us up...