Kerry/Edwards will get another boost come convention time.
I think the president will get a bigger bounce out of his convention. The president has just started hitting back this week after months of vicious attacks.
I think once he starts his full on campaign after the Republican convention he will get a nice lead.
It seems no matter what happens in the media IE prison abuse; 911 commission; all the bash Bush books; the Moore mockumentry, Bush never loses that much ground. Then he eventually pulls right back to tied with Kerry.
Starting in 1952 the three major networks (and that is all there were) covered the conventions from gavel to gavel.
You could go to a movie theater or watch the conventions on TV. The vast majority of voters watched the conventions. Both parties got bumps from their conventions.
But in the last couple of cycles the networks have stopped covering the conventions. And tons of cable channels have never covered any of it.
So the swing voters are watching the movie channels or some channel besides the news channels or the much smaller major network coverage.
With far far fewer people watching there is bound to be a much smaller bounce. But the media lays out the expectation of a bounce, and then reports the bounce is smaller than expected. The inference is that the candidates do not appeal. The truth is he media has far less political clout than it once did. It can't create bounces as it once did.
They don't like it .. but it is true. The media has far less power to even temporarily influence voters. They don't like it and don't want to face it or admit it. But is is a fact.