Posted on 07/07/2004 8:02:18 PM PDT by Dales
Kansas, California, and South Carolina stayed solidly for their respective candidates, with the latter being a partisan Republican poll prior to the Edwards naming. Another partisan poll showed Washington to be very close, but again, it was a partisan poll. There were two very different results for Michigan; one showed Kerry up big and the other showed Bush slightly ahead. And finally, North Carolina was polling with a solid Bush lead, but this was before the Edwards naming. All in all, a very uneventful week on the state polling front, which is not surprising for the dog days of summer. What little movement there was slightly benefitted Kerry.
The battlegrounds have a new addition, as I dropped North Carolina into the mix, anticipating it tightening now that John Edwards is on the Kerry ticket. They now stand as follows:
State | 2000 Result | Media Battleground | Current Status |
---|---|---|---|
New Jersey | Gore +16 | No | Kerry, Lean |
Iowa | Gore +0.3 | Yes | Kerry, Lean |
Michigan | Gore +5 | Yes | Kerry, Lean |
Oregon | Gore +0.4 | Yes | Kerry, Slight |
New Hampshire | Bush +1 | Yes | Kerry, Slight |
Minnesota | Gore +2 | Yes | Kerry, Slight |
West Virginia | Bush +6 | Yes | Kerry, Slight |
Ohio | Bush +4 | Yes | Tossup |
Pennsylvania | Gore +4 | Yes | Tossup |
Wisconsin | Gore +0.2 | Yes | Tossup |
New Mexico | Gore +0.06 | Yes | Tossup |
Florida | Bush +0.01 | Yes | Bush, Slight |
Arkansas | Bush +5 | Yes | Bush, Slight |
Virginia | Bush +8 | No | Bush, Slight |
North Carolina | Bush +13 | No | Bush, Slight |
Nevada | Bush +4 | Yes | Bush, Lean |
Arizona | Bush +6 | Yes | Bush, Lean |
Missouri | Bush +3 | Yes | Bush, Lean |
The scoreboard:
Result | With Tossups | ||
---|---|---|---|
ECB | Kerry 200, Bush 188 | Bush 259, Kerry 226 | |
ECB Classic | Kerry 227, Bush 213 | Bush Kerry 275, Bush 252 | |
ECB Classic Sans Zogby Interactive | Kerry 237, Bush 230 | Bush 282, Kerry 258 | |
Calculated National Result | Bush 44.9%, Kerry 43.8% |
For the trends, the changes in each are as follows:
ECB | Bush -15, Kerry unchanged | Bush unchanged, Kerry +17 |
ECB Classic | Bush +25, Kerry +6 | Bush -17, Kerry +6 |
ECB Classic Sans Zogby Interactive | Bush unchanged, Kerry +17 | Bush -17, Kerry +6 |
Calculated National Result | Bush -0.2%, Kerry +0.4% |
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F | ![]() |
Kansas |
---|---|---|---|
Electoral Votes: 6 | |||
2000 Result | |||
Bush 58% | |||
Gore 37% |
Background: Kansas has been a clean sweep for the GOP since Johnson beat Goldwater.
Polling Data:
Date | Polling Company | Link | Type | MOE | Republican | Democrat | Margin | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2/9/04 | SurveyUSA | Link | 500 RV | 4.3% | Bush | 52% | Kerry | 44% | Bush +8 |
3/4/04 | SurveyUSA | Link | 501 RV | 4.5% | Bush | 57% | Kerry | 39% | Bush +18 |
6/30/04 | SurveyUSA | Link | 589 LV | 4% | Bush | 56% | Kerry | 36% | Bush +20 |
Punditry: I hate when poll writeups do not include the actual percentages. It makes things messy. Bush is getting over a quarter of Kansas blacks. Safe for Bush.
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South Carolina |
---|---|
Electoral Votes: 8 | |
2000 Result | |
Bush 57% | |
Gore 41% |
Background: Jimmy Carter, from neighboring Georgia, won this state. You have to go back to JFK to find another Democrat who was able to do it. Most of the time, it was not all that close although Carter did make it close against Reagan too; the fact that a neighbor was able to twice make the state competitive (and once win it) means that the state will merit more attention should Edwards win the Democrat nomination.
Polling Data:
Date | Polling Company | Link | Type | MOE | Republican | Democrat | Margin | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7/28/03 | Hickman Research | Link | ? | ? | Bush | 52% | Unnamed Democrat | 36% | Bush +16 |
5/31/04 | Rasmussen | Link | LV | 5% | Bush | 49% | Kerry | 39% | Bush +10 |
6/29/04 | Public Opinion Strategies (R) | NA | LV | 4% | Bush | 55% | Kerry | 40% | Bush +15 |
Punditry: It is a partisan poll, but the results look reasonable. I am a little suspicious of the Senate poll released with it that showed DeMint leading Tenenbaum by 6% already. I do expect him to win, but I was thinking she would maintain a lead for a bit longer. I am tempted to move SC to safe, but will hold off on doing so until after the Kerry VP announcement; if it is Edwards I want to see what happens here. I doubt he would make it close, but he may make it close enough that a safe designation would be unsafe. Strong Advantage for Bush.
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Washington |
---|---|
Electoral Votes: 11 | |
2000 Result | |
Gore 50% | |
Bush 45% |
Background: The Democrats have won the last four, and 6 of the last 10, with all four Republican wins coming consecutively (Nixon, Ford, ReaganX2). It is unclear as to if Clinton would have won the first time here sans Perot; it would likely have been extremely close. The Dukakis/Bush race was very close. The Clinton/Dole race was not.
Polling Data:
Date | Polling Company | Link | Type | MOE | Republican | Democrat | Margin | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1/5/04 | SurveyUSA | NA | 975 RV | 3% | Bush | 48% | Kerry | 49% | Kerry +1 |
2/4/04 | SurveyUSA | Link | 975 RV | 3% | Bush | 43% | Kerry | 55% | Kerry +12 |
3/24/04 | SurveyUSA | Link | 698 LV | 4% | Bush | 43% | Kerry | 47% | Kerry +4 |
3/25/04 | Rasmussen | Link | 500 LV | 5% | Bush | 44% | Kerry | 50% | Kerry +6 |
4/5/04 | The Elway Poll | NA | LV | 5% | Bush | 41% | Kerry | 46% | Kerry +5 |
4/18/04 | Moore Information (R) | Link | 500 RV | 4% | Bush | 41% | Kerry | 45% | Kerry +4 |
5/24/04 | Zogby Interactive* | Link | LV | 4.3% | Bush | 44.4% | Kerry | 52.5% | Kerry +8.1 |
6/4/04 | SurveyUSA | Link | 654 LV | 4% | Bush | 44% | Kerry | 49% | Kerry +5 |
6/6/04 | Zogby Interactive* | Link | LV | 2.3% | Bush | 44.4% | Kerry | 51.7% | Kerry +7.3 |
6/11/04 | Moore Information (R) | Link | 500 RV | 4% | Bush | 44% | Kerry | 45% | Kerry +1 |
6/11/04 | Mason-Dixon** | Link | 625 LV | 4% | Bush | 42% | Kerry | 46% | Kerry +4 |
6/21/04 | Zogby Interactive* | Link | LV | 2.8% | Bush | 45.2% | Kerry | 51.6% | Kerry +6.4% |
6/24/04 | Moore Information (R) | NA | 500 RV | 4% | Bush | 43% | Kerry | 43% | Push |
** Done for a 'private public policy client'.
Punditry: Another partisan poll. Caveat lector. Leaning Towards Kerry.
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Michigan |
---|---|---|---|
Electoral Votes: 17 | |||
2000 Result | |||
Gore 51% | |||
Bush 46% |
Background: 2-5-3 in the last ten elections. Without Perot, it likely would have been 2-6-2. Since Lyndon Johnson, only Reagan in his re-elect has approached 60%. Michigan has gone from leaning Bush to having a slight advantage for the Democrats. Republicans have 9 of 15 Representatives, Democrats hold both Senate seats, while Republicans hold both houses of the state legislature. The state executive is split; Democrats hold the Governor and Lt. Governor positions while Republicans have the Secretary of State and Attorney General slots.
Michigan has gone from leaning Bush to having a slight advantage for the Democrats. Republicans have 9 of 15 Representatives, Democrats hold both Senate seats, while Republicans hold both houses of the state legislature. The state executive is split; Democrats hold the Governor and Lt. Governor positions while Republicans have the Secretary of State and Attorney General slots.
Polling Data:
Date | Polling Company | Link | Type | MOE | Republican | Democrat | Margin | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5/26/03 | Epic/MRA | Link | 400 RV | 5% | Bush | 48% | Unnamed Democrat | 41% | Bush +7 |
9/21/03 | Detroit News/Mitchell Research | Link | 600 LV | 4% | Bush | 44% | Unnamed Democrat | 49% | Dem +5 |
12/10/03 | Survey USA | Link | 724 LV | 3.7% | Bush | 53% | Kerry | 43% | Bush +10 |
2/3/04 | Survey USA | Link | 724 LV | 3.7% | Bush | 46% | Kerry | 51% | Dem +5 |
2/22/04 | Epic/MRA | Link | 600 LV | 4% | Bush | 45% | Kerry | 49% | Dem +4 |
3/1/04 | Detroit News/Mitchell Research | Link | LV | 4% | Bush | 40% | Kerry | 46% | Kerry +6 |
3/14/04 | Rasmussen | Link | 500 LV | 4.5% | Bush | 44% | Kerry | 48% | Kerry +4 |
3/14/04 | Marketing Resource Group | Link | 600 RV | 4.1% | Bush | 47% | Kerry | 45% | Bush +2 |
4/1/04 | Epic/MRA | Link | 600 LV | 4% | Bush | 45% | Kerry | 47% | Kerry +2 |
4/4/04 | Survey USA | Link | 536 LV | 4.3% | Bush | 41% | Kerry | 51% | Kerry +10 |
5/2/04 | Survey USA | Link | 536 LV | 4.3% | Bush | 43% | Kerry | 47% | Kerry +4 |
5/12/04 | Detroit News/Mitchell Research | Link | 413 LV | 5% | Bush | 44% | Kerry | 40% | Bush +4 |
5/24/04 | Zogby Interactive* | Link | LV | 4% | Bush | 41.2% | Kerry | 49.5% | Kerry +8.3 |
5/31/04 | Survey USA | Link | 567 LV | 4% | Bush | 43% | Kerry | 47% | Kerry +4 |
5/31/04 | Rasmussen | Link | LV | 5% | Bush | 41% | Kerry | 47% | Kerry +6 |
6/6/04 | Zogby Interactive* | Link | LV | 2.6% | Bush | 45.1% | Kerry | 49.1% | Kerry +4.0 |
6/6/04 | Epic/MRA | Link | 600 LV | 4% | Bush | 45% | Kerry | 47% | Kerry +2 |
6/21/04 | Zogby Interactive* | Link | LV | 3.2% | Bush | 46.8% | Kerry | 46.1% | Bush +0.7% |
6/23/04 | Fox Opinion Dynamics | Link | 750 LV | 4% | Bush | 42% | Kerry | 40% | Bush +2 |
6/30/04 | Survey USA | Link | 594 LV | 4% | Bush | 41% | Kerry | 51% | Kerry +10 |
6/30/04 | Detroit News/Mitchell Research | Link | 400 LV | 5% | Bush | 44% | Kerry | 43% | Bush +1 |
Punditry: When I make the designations of the states, I am giving my impression of where the race is. It dawned on me this morning that another way of phrasing this is that I am predicting what the next poll will show, if the race remains the same. Obviously, my last designation in Michigan did not predict the next Michigan poll, despite the fact that the poll was taken over the same timeframe as the last one. This poll and SurveyUSA's are technically within the margin of error of each other (for example, this poll has a MoE of 5, and if you add 5 to Kerry and subtract 3 from Bush in this poll you get Kerry 48, Bush 41; the SurveyUSA poll had a MoE of 4, and if you took 3 away from Kerry's number in that you get the same 44-41 result).
For comparison purposes, the Detroit News poll in 2000 had Gore leading Bush by 6 on November 1st. This poll was part of a survey of the general mood of Michigan residents. In this poll, 48% said that jobs/the economy is the top issue for the state. 47% say the economy is improving while 11% say it is getting worse.
Before the SurveyUSA poll, I had Michigan parked as a tossup. It is a testimony to how much regard I have for their results that I am not pushing it all the way back. However, I do think this result makes it likely that the SurveyUSA result was overstated, and that the state now has a Slight Advantage for Kerry.
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F | ![]() |
California |
---|---|---|---|
Electoral Votes: 55 | |||
2000 Result | |||
Gore 53% | |||
Bush 42% |
Background: On a three election streak for the Democrats, California has a reputation as a liberal bastion. While Gore did handle Bush easily in 2000, the fact is that the reputation may not fit the data on the Presidential level. Only three candidates have broken 53% in California since the 1964 landslide. Al Gore last time, homestate icon Ronald Reagan in his re-election campaign but not his first election, and Richard Nixon in his re-election campaign but not his first successful Presidential campaign.
Polling Data:
Date | Polling Company | Link | Type | MOE | Republican | Democrat | Margin | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8/16/03 | Field | NA | RV | 4% | Bush | 42% | Unnamed Democrat | 47% | Dem +5 |
8/16/03 | Public Policy Institute | NA | LV | 3% | Bush | 40% | Unnamed Democrat | 45% | Dem +5 |
1/3/04 | Public Policy Institute | Link | LV | 3% | Bush | 45% | Unnamed Democrat | 45% | Tied |
1/13/04 | Field | NA | RV | 3.4% | Bush | 46% | Unnamed Democrat | 47% | Dem +1 |
1/18/04 | Rasmussen | NA | LV | 4% | Bush | 41% | Unnamed Democrat | 46% | Dem +5 |
2/13/04 | Knowledge Networks | Link | RV | 4.1% | Bush | 38% | Kerry | 42% | Dem +4 |
2/16/04 | Public Policy Institute | Link | 1,103 LV | 3% | Bush | 37% | Kerry | 54% | Dem +17 |
2/22/04 | LA Times | Link | 1,521 RV | 3% | Bush | 40% | Kerry | 53% | Dem +13 |
2/27/04 | Knowledge Networks | Link | 505 RV | 3.8% | Bush | 38% | Kerry | 43% | Kerry +5 |
3/11/04 | Rasmussen | Link | 455 LV | 5% | Bush | 44% | Kerry | 53% | Kerry +9 |
4/17/04 | Rasmussen | Link | 502 LV | 5% | Bush | 40% | Kerry | 51% | Kerry +11 |
4/21/04 | L.A. Times | Link | 1,265 LV, Nader an option | 3% | Bush | 39% | Kerry | 49% | Kerry +10 |
4/21/04 | L.A. Times | Link | 1,265 LV, Nader not an option | 3% | Bush | 41% | Kerry | 53% | Kerry +12 |
5/6/04 | SurveyUSA | Link | 635 LV | 4% | Bush | 45% | Kerry | 46% | Kerry +1 |
5/24/04 | Field | Link | 647 RV, Nader not an option | 4% | Bush | 40% | Kerry | 55% | Kerry +15 |
5/24/04 | Field | Link | 647 RV, Nader an option | 4% | Bush | 39% | Kerry | 51% | Kerry +12 |
5/31/04 | Rasmussen | Link | LV | 3% | Bush | 41% | Kerry | 49% | Kerry +8 |
6/30/04 | Rasmussen | Link | LV | 3% | Bush | 38% | Kerry | 52% | Kerry +14 |
Punditry: Rasmussen's new round of state polling releases begins with a favorable, but unsurprising, one from California. Bush leads among conservative voters. Kerry leads among liberals, moderates, men, women, investors, non-Investors, and just about every grouping you can imagine. If SurveyUSA turns out to be right about California, then they will really cement their reputation (while damaging Rasmussen's). Strong Advantage for Kerry.
Not only is this an improvement in Kerry's standing since last month in Rasmussen's survey, it is an even bigger improvement in his standing in Rasmussen's survey since two weeks ago (the mid-month updates are not released to the public).
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F | ![]() |
North Carolina |
---|---|---|---|
Electoral Votes: 15 | |||
2000 Result | |||
Bush 56% | |||
Gore 43% | |||
|
Background: Since Lyndon Johnson's win here, only once have the Democrats taken Tar Heel electors. That's a bit deceptive, however, as many times it was extremely close. Carter lost to Reagan here by only two points in that nationwide blowout. Clinton lost two elections by a combined total of 5%. Yet the Clinton losses are also deceptive, in that the margins would have been considerably larger without Perot and his charts. Simply stated, like much of the south North Carolina votes Republican for President, although a southerner atop the ticket can make things interesting; not always though, as Al Gore demonstrated.
Polling Data:
Date | Polling Company | Link | Type | MOE | Republican | Democrat | Margin | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9/16/03 | Research2000 | Link | 600 LV | 4% | Bush | 51% | Edwards | 40% | Bush +11 |
11/15/03 | Research2000 | Link | 600 LV | 4% | Bush | 54% | Edwards | 42% | Bush +12 |
11/25/03 | Survey USA | Link | 563 RV | 4.2% | Bush | 53% | Kerry | 39% | Bush +14 |
11/25/03 | Survey USA | Link | 563 RV | 4.2% | Bush | 52% | Edwards | 45% | Bush +7 |
2/26/04 | Survey USA | Link | 654 RV | 3.9% | Bush | 53% | Kerry | 42% | Bush +11 |
3/11/04 | Rasmussen | Link | 400 LV | 3% | Bush | 51% | Kerry | 43% | Bush +8 |
4/1/04 | Bennett, Petts and Blumenthal (D) | No Link | LV | 4% | Bush | 51% | Kerry | 44% | Bush +7 |
5/14/04 | Mason-Dixon | Link | LV | 4% | Bush | 48% | Kerry | 41% | Bush +7 |
5/31/04 | Rasmussen | Link | LV | 5% | Bush | 48% | Kerry | 44% | Bush +4 |
6/16/04 | Research2000 | Link | 600 LV | 4% | Bush | 47% | Kerry | 42% | Bush +5 |
6/30/04 | Rasmussen | Link | LV | 5% | Bush | 49% | Kerry | 42% | Bush +7 |
Punditry: So now we know-- it is Edwards. This Rasmussen poll was completed completely before Edwards was named the running mate. My research suggests that in recent elections, a Vice-President nominee is worth between 5-10 points to the topline in his home state. If this holds true this time around, it puts North Carolina in the battleground region. I am assuming it will. Slight Advantage for Bush.
Effective National Popular Results: Bush 44.7%, Kerry 44.2% |
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Kerry E | F Bush | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Safe | Strong | Lean | Slight | Tossup | Slight | Lean | Strong | Safe |
DC (3) | DE (3) | MN (10) K46.5-B42.2 6/14/04 |
NH (4) K46-B46 6/9/04 |
NM (5) B46-K45 4/1/04 |
VA (13) B47-K45 5/31/04 |
NV (5) B49-K38 3/17/04 |
SD (3) B50-K35 5/21/04 |
AK (3) |
HI (4) | VT (3) K51-B36 5/1/04 |
IA (7) K49-B41 5/31/04 |
WV (5) K47-B44 6/17/04 |
OR (7) B46-K45 5/31/04 |
AR (6) B48-K43 5/31/04 |
MO (11) B48-K37 6/8/04 |
LA (9) B48-K42 5/31/04 |
ND (3) |
MA (12) K58-B33 5/31/04 |
IL (21) K52-B39 6/9/04 |
WA (11) K43-B43*R 6/24/04 |
MI (17) B44-K43 K51-B41 6/30/04 |
OH (20) B45-K41 K49-B43 6/23/04 |
WI (10) B46-K42 6/23/04 |
TN (11) B51-K41 6/21/04 |
GA (15) B49-K32 6/2/04 |
NE (5) |
RI (4) K49-B25 6/14/04 |
MD (10) K52-B38 6/9/04 |
NJ (15) K46-B40 6/20/04 |
- | PA (21) B46-K41 6/23/04 |
FL (27) B43-K43* 6/27/04 |
CO (9) B48-K434* 6/18/04 |
KY (8) B52-K39 6/8/04 |
WY (3) |
NY (31) K52-B34 6/14/04 |
CA (55) K52-B38 6/30/04 |
ME (4) K43.5-B41.0* 6/12/04 |
- | - | NC (15) B49-K42 6/30/04 |
AZ (10) B47-K35* 6/27/04 |
SC (8) B55-K40*R 6/29/04 |
ID (4) B55-K23 3/17/04 |
CT (7) K50-B32* 6/28/04 |
- | - | - | - | - | - | - | MS (6) B61.2-K30.0 4/21/04 |
- | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | UT (5) B67-K22 5/10/04 |
- | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | MT (3) B53-K33 5/26/04 |
- | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | AL (9) B57-K36 5/31/04 |
- | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | TX (34) B55-K38 5/31/04 |
- | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | IN (11) B52-K36 6/21/04 |
- | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | OK (7) B60-K34 6/23/04 |
- | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | KS (6) B56-K36 6/30/04 |
Totals | ||||||||
Kerry States | Battleground States | Bush States | ||||||
61 | 92 | 47 | 26 | 53 | 71 | 46 | 43 | 99 |
200 | 150 | 188 |
* Indicates a Registered Voter poll as opposed to a Likely Voter poll.
*R Indicates a partisan Republican poll. *D Inidcates a partisan Democrat poll.
** Indicates a poll of either adults or residents.
I surely do hope you are right. I am optimistic.
Just a little anecdotal evidence...
I live in Washington county, which is a rather
conservative county. In 2000, it was surprising
to find out it went for Gore. I do remember seeing
a lot of Gore signs, bumperstickers, etc. but, in the
end, Gore didn't get many more votes than Bush. This
year, I see very little campaign material for Kerry.
I think I've seen 2 bumperstickers, and no signs. This
is why I am optimistic. BTW, Washington county is part
of the Portland Metro area.
I wrote this in a hurry. I hope it makes sense. ;o)
Good to hear. I hope you're hosting a part for Dubya next week, to make sure like-minded folks in Oregon are mobilized this time around. I'll ping you to a thread with details.
As a tarheel, I can tell you that NC will go for Bush regardless of Senator Breck girl.
He wouldn't even have kept his senate seat had he elected to run for it again.
Trust me on this, NC is not leaning and will not lean for Kerry.
Is FL really polling this way or are pollsters modeling their turnout numbers based on 2000? Was 2000 really a representative year for FL as a whole, or is a state as heavily GOP is, statewide, really that tight nationally? Will a state that loves the brother of the President really toss out the President when he is cut from the same cloth? Stay tuned, alot of these questions to be answered on Nov 2...
Where did they get the 60,000+ people for the rally today? I didn't think he could muster 60,000 votes in North Carolina muchless 60,000 souls to a rally! Did these folks come in from South Carolina?
I have been following your work with great admiration and tremendous thanks!!! Reading your analysis has kept me from going stir-crazy since I live in Kerry country!!!
I have been watching New Hampshire with interest and I have done a little volunteer work there for Bush since I am afraid that NH will actually be the Florida of 2004.
It looks to me that the last couple of polls in Maine and New Hampshire are showing some real improvement for Bush. Is there something that you can particularly point to that can give us some guidance for these two states...?
Thanks again and yes I have donated to your kitty - I hope that others are helping out!!!
What sort of guidance are you looking for?
We are just trying to find our way to potential Bush Voters in NH and ME, and we are working on a shoestring here so if you can see anything in the poll results that will help us please let us know. We are trying to find location of potential voters and if you see any hot button issues that could help too!
If you have anything really hot!! please send a private reply...
Thanks again for your work on the EC Breakdown, it is truly great!!!!
We are in deep do-do.
Terrorists win.
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I Wouldn't Touch It With a 10 Foot Poll
Bounce!
In July 1976, the polls were showing President Ford in all sorts of trouble against his challenger, a peanut farmer from Georgia with an oversized smile and a number of fawning profiles in the major news magazines. The Gallup poll showed him trailing Mr. Carter by 13 points, then by 18 points, then by 17 points. His support level in the horserace question had fallen to the mid-30s, with his opponent consistently coming in comfortably above 50%.And the worst had yet to come, as the Democratic Convention took place in the middle of that month. Mr. Carter's support level skyrocketed up 9 points, to 62%. But it was not just what he gained; it was also what Mr. Ford lost, as his already low numbers fell from 36% to 29%. In the survey conducted after the convention, it was a 33-point race, thanks to the 16-point convention bounce.
The bounce faded fairly quickly. A week later, Gallup measured a 22-point gap. A week after that, it was a fifteen point gap, and then it was down to 11. The entire bounce had evaporated by the time the Republican Convention rolled around in mid-August. Mr. Ford was unable to replicate the magnitude of the bounce. He improved from 40% to 45% while knocking Mr. Carter from 51% to 47%; the bounce was a comparatively modest 9 points (making it a 2 point race). However, while he could not match the magnitude of Mr. Carter's bounce, his bounce was more enduring. Mr. Carter's support did not return in the polls; the rest of the way he averaged 48%. The improvement in Mr. Ford's support number faded within two weeks though, and until election day he trailed by an average of 5 points, before eventually losing by 2%.
In 1980, it was the Republicans turn to go first, and the power of the conventions showed through. Heading into the mid-July convention, Mr. Reagan was sitting at 37%, with Mr. Carter at 34% and independent John Anderson at 21%. By the time the Gipper left the stage, he had gained 8 points while Mr. Carter's support had eroded by 5 points and Mr. Anderson's had declined by 7. The Democrats had scheduled their convention right on the heels of the Republicans, so how enduring the bounce would have been cannot be determined. Mr. Carter's support immediately rebounded by 9 points, and Reagan's fell by 6 points; the President's bounce of 15 points outdid the challenger's of 13 points. Mr. Anderson, pushed to the sideline by the two conventions and not having one of his own, never recovered any of his losses, and faded to the finish line.
While the two previous elections had shown convention bounces averaging in double digits, 1984 produced more modest results. Walter Mondale gained five points and knocked Mr. Reagan down 4; however, he did not bring Mr. Reagan below 50%. The four subsequent polls, taken in aggregate, showed that about half of Mr. Mondale's gains and half of Mr. Reagan's losses endured until the Republican convention. There, Mr. Reagan gained four and Mr. Mondale lost four. Mr. Reagan never lost what he gained from that point forward. Mr. Mondale recovered about half within two weeks, and the other two points by the last survey before the election, but that still left him well behind.
Heading into the 1988 Democratic Convention, Michael Dukakis must have felt extremely confident. He had a 6-point lead on the Vice President and knew that a healthy bounce was heading his way. He gained 7 points while inflicting 4 points of damage on Mr. Bush. Unfortunately for Mr. Dukakis, his bounce, while being respectable in size, had no staying power at all. A poll taken a week later showed that he had given back all but 2 of the points he had gained, and Mr. Bush had not only regained all 4 he had lost but then another point on top of that. A mere two weeks transpired since the Democratic Convention, and the race was tighter than it had been before it. Mr. Bush's convention then followed, and he gained 6 points while Mr. Dukakis fell another 5. To make matters worse for the tank commander, both Mr. Bush's gains and Mr. Dukakis' losses never faded.
1992 was the perfect storm. As the Democratic convention was approaching, there was a tight three-way race. Mr. Bush led, but only by a point over Mr. Perot with Mr. Clinton about 6 points behind. Then Mr. Perot did the unthinkable-- he bowed out of the race, blaming it all on Mr. Bush. If his accusations were not all that damaging, the timing certainly was since all of his supporters would now be making up their mind on their second choice right as the Democrats were starting their week long party and sales job. In the Gallup survey taken right before the start of it, Mr. Bush led 48% to 40%; he had gained 15 points with Mr. Perot's leaving to 13 points for Mr. Clinton, but the gains were extremely soft. Mr. Clinton took advantage. A week later, Mr. Clinton had gained a whopping 16 points and Mr. Bush had lost all of his post-Perot increase (14 points)-- a monstrous 30-point bounce. Mr. Clinton's gains did not fade in the subsequent weeks, and Mr. Bush was only able to gain back a couple of points before his convention. Worse, he was only able to improve his support by 2 points with his convention, although Mr. Clinton did come down 5 points during it. Mr. Bush's modest bounce was enduring, and the race was in the single digits for a while. Then Mr. Perot re-entered the race.
Robert Dole's convention bounce was unusual. In the 20 years prior to 1996, every single convention had resulted in a decrease in the opponent's support of at least four points. Mr. Dole never did figure out how to lay a hand on Mr. Clinton, with the Republican Convention resulting in only a 2 point drop from the poll immediately preceding the convention (and a zero point drop from the two polls previous to that). Mr. Dole did add 8 points to his own tally (but just 4 points from the two polls previous to that). The bounce did not fade before the Democratic Convention. The bounce there was modest as well, with Mr. Clinton adding 4 and knocking Mr. Dole down by 5 points. These changes faded halfway within a few weeks.
In 2000, the conventions came back-to-back once again. Mr. Bush went first, adding 7 points to his support level while Mr. Gore's support slid by 5 points. The Democrats immediately countered, with Mr. Gore doing even better, recouping all 5 points and then 3 more, and knocking off 9 points from Mr. Bush.
Of the 14 convention bounces since 1976, 64% have resulted in a double-digit horserace bounce. 86% have resulted in at least a 9-point bounce. The smallest bounces were George H. W. Bush's 7-point improvement in standing in 1992, and Ronald Reagan's 8-point improvement in 1984. The average bounce has been about 12.5 points. Matthew Dowd, a Bush campaign strategist, calculated it as 15.4 points (the difference may be in if he used the average of several polls to determine the pre and post convention support levels, or if he was using data different than Gallup's, or if he chose a different poll as being the true pre-poll level. Either way, our results are comparable).
The Democratic Convention is approaching, and Mr. Kerry has just named his running mate. Mr. Dowd suggests Mr. Kerry should, based on history, open up a fifteen-point lead. Terry McAuliffe, deciding to not play the manage-expectations game, suggests it will be between 8 and 12 points. Eight points would be very much to the low end of what would normally be expected, while 12 points would be right around average.
There are a few reasons to expect that Mr. Kerry's bounce will be towards the low end of this spectrum, if not below. Convention bounces generally occur due to partisan voters coming home to their candidate, and undecided independents being swayed at least momentarily. Not all independents are equal; studies by Pew and Gallup have shown that some independents routinely vote Democratic, and some independents routinely vote Republican. Exit polls routinely show that each party gets a minimum of 35% of the independents. Any support below this level is bound to 'come home' to their undeclared party with as much regularity as declared partisans returning to the party fold.
Before the Democratic Convention in 1992, Mr. Clinton had only 67% of Democrats saying they were definitely going to vote for him, with 11% saying they were definitely going to vote for Mr. Bush (Data according to Pew Research). After the convention, Mr. Bush was getting under 5% of them, and Mr. Clinton was well above 80%. The Democrats came home. Among independents, Mr. Clinton had been getting just a quarter beforehand-- an extremely low number. Mr. Clinton was well set to have a sizeable convention bounce, even had Mr. Perot not dropped out of the race right before his convention. In comparison, Mr. Bush had 73% of Republicans already in camp with only 3% backing Mr. Clinton. He also already had 32% of independents. The effect of Republicans coming home was going to be markedly smaller, and it was.
In comparison, before the conventions in 1996 both Republicans and Democrats were already mostly home. Mr. Clinton already had 80% of Democrats saying they were definitely going to vote for him, with Mr. Dole getting a mere 4%. Among Republicans, Mr. Dole was commanding 72%, with Mr. Clinton getting 7%. Mr. Dole had only a quarter of independents. The conventions were mainly a battle for the independents, and the bounces were correspondingly smaller. Mr. Dole had more room for growth within his own party and among independents than did Mr. Clinton; as it ended up, 1996 was the only time in the last 7 elections where the Republicans got more benefit from the conventions than did the Democrats. In 2000, Mr. Gore had only 64% of Democrats in camp before the conventions (and again just a quarter of independents). It was inevitable that his bounce would be sizeable as Democrats, and independents that lean Democrat, came home.
Where Mr. Clinton in 1992 and Mr. Gore in 2000 faced the opportunity for a healthy bounce by bringing home the Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents, Mr. Kerry's situation is more similar to Mr. Dole's, only with less room for obvious growth. Mr. Dole commanded 72% of Republicans; Mr. Kerry has 73% of Democrats. Mr. Dole's opponent had just 7% of Republicans; Mr. Kerry's has just 6% of Democrats. But where Mr. Dole had just 27% of independents already in hand, Mr. Kerry already has 37%; those who lean Democrat already are with him. And it is not that Mr. Bush is doing poorly with independents, either. 35% of them say they will certainly cast their vote for him. Mr. Kerry will get about a 4-7 point bounce as the 73% certain support among Democrats increases to 80-85% and the few Democrat-leaning independents not already in his camp swing his way. Any bounce beyond that will have to be accomplished by wooing voters who are either neutral to Democrats or normally disinclined towards them. Further making it difficult for Mr. Kerry is the fact that the networks will be dedicating significantly fewer prime time hours to convention coverage.
I would not be surprised to see both candidates end up with convention bounces smaller than normal. If this happens, then it is going to be difficult for Mr. Kerry to avoid the perception that he did not live up to expectations. Where incumbent Presidents have had less than a 10-point bounce on average since 1996, challengers to an incumbent President have enjoyed a bounce closer to 16 points. Mr. Dowd has primed the coverage to anticipate a double-digit bounce for Mr. Kerry, and so did Mr. McAuliffe. More is expected of Mr. Kerry's bounce, even though the terrain is not favorable for it being large.