Electoral College Breakdown 2004, July 7th Update

I Wouldn't Touch It With a 10 Foot Poll

Bounce!

In July 1976, the polls were showing President Ford in all sorts of trouble against his challenger, a peanut farmer from Georgia with an oversized smile and a number of fawning profiles in the major news magazines. The Gallup poll showed him trailing Mr. Carter by 13 points, then by 18 points, then by 17 points. His support level in the horserace question had fallen to the mid-30s, with his opponent consistently coming in comfortably above 50%.

And the worst had yet to come, as the Democratic Convention took place in the middle of that month. Mr. Carter's support level skyrocketed up 9 points, to 62%. But it was not just what he gained; it was also what Mr. Ford lost, as his already low numbers fell from 36% to 29%. In the survey conducted after the convention, it was a 33-point race, thanks to the 16-point convention bounce.

The bounce faded fairly quickly. A week later, Gallup measured a 22-point gap. A week after that, it was a fifteen point gap, and then it was down to 11. The entire bounce had evaporated by the time the Republican Convention rolled around in mid-August. Mr. Ford was unable to replicate the magnitude of the bounce. He improved from 40% to 45% while knocking Mr. Carter from 51% to 47%; the bounce was a comparatively modest 9 points (making it a 2 point race). However, while he could not match the magnitude of Mr. Carter's bounce, his bounce was more enduring. Mr. Carter's support did not return in the polls; the rest of the way he averaged 48%. The improvement in Mr. Ford's support number faded within two weeks though, and until election day he trailed by an average of 5 points, before eventually losing by 2%.

In 1980, it was the Republicans turn to go first, and the power of the conventions showed through. Heading into the mid-July convention, Mr. Reagan was sitting at 37%, with Mr. Carter at 34% and independent John Anderson at 21%. By the time the Gipper left the stage, he had gained 8 points while Mr. Carter's support had eroded by 5 points and Mr. Anderson's had declined by 7. The Democrats had scheduled their convention right on the heels of the Republicans, so how enduring the bounce would have been cannot be determined. Mr. Carter's support immediately rebounded by 9 points, and Reagan's fell by 6 points; the President's bounce of 15 points outdid the challenger's of 13 points. Mr. Anderson, pushed to the sideline by the two conventions and not having one of his own, never recovered any of his losses, and faded to the finish line.

While the two previous elections had shown convention bounces averaging in double digits, 1984 produced more modest results. Walter Mondale gained five points and knocked Mr. Reagan down 4; however, he did not bring Mr. Reagan below 50%. The four subsequent polls, taken in aggregate, showed that about half of Mr. Mondale's gains and half of Mr. Reagan's losses endured until the Republican convention. There, Mr. Reagan gained four and Mr. Mondale lost four. Mr. Reagan never lost what he gained from that point forward. Mr. Mondale recovered about half within two weeks, and the other two points by the last survey before the election, but that still left him well behind.

Heading into the 1988 Democratic Convention, Michael Dukakis must have felt extremely confident. He had a 6-point lead on the Vice President and knew that a healthy bounce was heading his way. He gained 7 points while inflicting 4 points of damage on Mr. Bush. Unfortunately for Mr. Dukakis, his bounce, while being respectable in size, had no staying power at all. A poll taken a week later showed that he had given back all but 2 of the points he had gained, and Mr. Bush had not only regained all 4 he had lost but then another point on top of that. A mere two weeks transpired since the Democratic Convention, and the race was tighter than it had been before it. Mr. Bush's convention then followed, and he gained 6 points while Mr. Dukakis fell another 5. To make matters worse for the tank commander, both Mr. Bush's gains and Mr. Dukakis' losses never faded.

1992 was the perfect storm. As the Democratic convention was approaching, there was a tight three-way race. Mr. Bush led, but only by a point over Mr. Perot with Mr. Clinton about 6 points behind. Then Mr. Perot did the unthinkable-- he bowed out of the race, blaming it all on Mr. Bush. If his accusations were not all that damaging, the timing certainly was since all of his supporters would now be making up their mind on their second choice right as the Democrats were starting their week long party and sales job. In the Gallup survey taken right before the start of it, Mr. Bush led 48% to 40%; he had gained 15 points with Mr. Perot's leaving to 13 points for Mr. Clinton, but the gains were extremely soft. Mr. Clinton took advantage. A week later, Mr. Clinton had gained a whopping 16 points and Mr. Bush had lost all of his post-Perot increase (14 points)-- a monstrous 30-point bounce. Mr. Clinton's gains did not fade in the subsequent weeks, and Mr. Bush was only able to gain back a couple of points before his convention. Worse, he was only able to improve his support by 2 points with his convention, although Mr. Clinton did come down 5 points during it. Mr. Bush's modest bounce was enduring, and the race was in the single digits for a while. Then Mr. Perot re-entered the race.

Robert Dole's convention bounce was unusual. In the 20 years prior to 1996, every single convention had resulted in a decrease in the opponent's support of at least four points. Mr. Dole never did figure out how to lay a hand on Mr. Clinton, with the Republican Convention resulting in only a 2 point drop from the poll immediately preceding the convention (and a zero point drop from the two polls previous to that). Mr. Dole did add 8 points to his own tally (but just 4 points from the two polls previous to that). The bounce did not fade before the Democratic Convention. The bounce there was modest as well, with Mr. Clinton adding 4 and knocking Mr. Dole down by 5 points. These changes faded halfway within a few weeks.

In 2000, the conventions came back-to-back once again. Mr. Bush went first, adding 7 points to his support level while Mr. Gore's support slid by 5 points. The Democrats immediately countered, with Mr. Gore doing even better, recouping all 5 points and then 3 more, and knocking off 9 points from Mr. Bush.

Convention	Republican Change	Democrat Change	Horserace Change

1976 Democratic	-7	+9	Democrat, +16
1976 Republican	+5	-4	Republican, +9
1976 Total	-2	+5	Democrat, +7
1980 Republican	+8	-5	Republican, +13
1980 Democratic	-6	+9	Democrat, +15
1980 Total	+2	+4	Democrat, +4
1984 Democratic	-4	+5	Democrat, +9
1984 Republican	+4	-4	Republican, +8
1984 Total	0	+1	Democrat, +1
1988 Democratic	-4	+7	Democrat, +11
1988 Republican	+6	-5	Republican +11
1988 Total	+2	+2	Push
1992 Democratic	-14	+16	Democrat, +30
1992 Republican	+2	-5	Republican, +7
1992 Total	-12	+11	Democrat, +23
1996 Republican	+8	-2	Republican, +10
1996 Democratic	-5	+4	Democrat, +9
1996 Total	+3	+2	Republican, +1
2000 Republican	+7	-5	Republican, +12
2000 Democratic	-9	+8	Democrat, +17
2000 Total	-2	+3	Democrat, +5

Of the 14 convention bounces since 1976, 64% have resulted in a double-digit horserace bounce. 86% have resulted in at least a 9-point bounce. The smallest bounces were George H. W. Bush's 7-point improvement in standing in 1992, and Ronald Reagan's 8-point improvement in 1984. The average bounce has been about 12.5 points. Matthew Dowd, a Bush campaign strategist, calculated it as 15.4 points (the difference may be in if he used the average of several polls to determine the pre and post convention support levels, or if he was using data different than Gallup's, or if he chose a different poll as being the true pre-poll level. Either way, our results are comparable).

The Democratic Convention is approaching, and Mr. Kerry has just named his running mate. Mr. Dowd suggests Mr. Kerry should, based on history, open up a fifteen-point lead. Terry McAuliffe, deciding to not play the manage-expectations game, suggests it will be between 8 and 12 points. Eight points would be very much to the low end of what would normally be expected, while 12 points would be right around average.

There are a few reasons to expect that Mr. Kerry's bounce will be towards the low end of this spectrum, if not below. Convention bounces generally occur due to partisan voters coming home to their candidate, and undecided independents being swayed at least momentarily. Not all independents are equal; studies by Pew and Gallup have shown that some independents routinely vote Democratic, and some independents routinely vote Republican. Exit polls routinely show that each party gets a minimum of 35% of the independents. Any support below this level is bound to 'come home' to their undeclared party with as much regularity as declared partisans returning to the party fold.

Before the Democratic Convention in 1992, Mr. Clinton had only 67% of Democrats saying they were definitely going to vote for him, with 11% saying they were definitely going to vote for Mr. Bush (Data according to Pew Research). After the convention, Mr. Bush was getting under 5% of them, and Mr. Clinton was well above 80%. The Democrats came home. Among independents, Mr. Clinton had been getting just a quarter beforehand-- an extremely low number. Mr. Clinton was well set to have a sizeable convention bounce, even had Mr. Perot not dropped out of the race right before his convention. In comparison, Mr. Bush had 73% of Republicans already in camp with only 3% backing Mr. Clinton. He also already had 32% of independents. The effect of Republicans coming home was going to be markedly smaller, and it was.

In comparison, before the conventions in 1996 both Republicans and Democrats were already mostly home. Mr. Clinton already had 80% of Democrats saying they were definitely going to vote for him, with Mr. Dole getting a mere 4%. Among Republicans, Mr. Dole was commanding 72%, with Mr. Clinton getting 7%. Mr. Dole had only a quarter of independents. The conventions were mainly a battle for the independents, and the bounces were correspondingly smaller. Mr. Dole had more room for growth within his own party and among independents than did Mr. Clinton; as it ended up, 1996 was the only time in the last 7 elections where the Republicans got more benefit from the conventions than did the Democrats. In 2000, Mr. Gore had only 64% of Democrats in camp before the conventions (and again just a quarter of independents). It was inevitable that his bounce would be sizeable as Democrats, and independents that lean Democrat, came home.

Where Mr. Clinton in 1992 and Mr. Gore in 2000 faced the opportunity for a healthy bounce by bringing home the Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents, Mr. Kerry's situation is more similar to Mr. Dole's, only with less room for obvious growth. Mr. Dole commanded 72% of Republicans; Mr. Kerry has 73% of Democrats. Mr. Dole's opponent had just 7% of Republicans; Mr. Kerry's has just 6% of Democrats. But where Mr. Dole had just 27% of independents already in hand, Mr. Kerry already has 37%; those who lean Democrat already are with him. And it is not that Mr. Bush is doing poorly with independents, either. 35% of them say they will certainly cast their vote for him. Mr. Kerry will get about a 4-7 point bounce as the 73% certain support among Democrats increases to 80-85% and the few Democrat-leaning independents not already in his camp swing his way. Any bounce beyond that will have to be accomplished by wooing voters who are either neutral to Democrats or normally disinclined towards them. Further making it difficult for Mr. Kerry is the fact that the networks will be dedicating significantly fewer prime time hours to convention coverage.

I would not be surprised to see both candidates end up with convention bounces smaller than normal. If this happens, then it is going to be difficult for Mr. Kerry to avoid the perception that he did not live up to expectations. Where incumbent Presidents have had less than a 10-point bounce on average since 1996, challengers to an incumbent President have enjoyed a bounce closer to 16 points. Mr. Dowd has primed the coverage to anticipate a double-digit bounce for Mr. Kerry, and so did Mr. McAuliffe. More is expected of Mr. Kerry's bounce, even though the terrain is not favorable for it being large.

This Week's Polling Updates Overview

Kansas, California, and South Carolina stayed solidly for their respective candidates, with the latter being a partisan Republican poll prior to the Edwards naming. Another partisan poll showed Washington to be very close, but again, it was a partisan poll. There were two very different results for Michigan; one showed Kerry up big and the other showed Bush slightly ahead. And finally, North Carolina was polling with a solid Bush lead, but this was before the Edwards naming. All in all, a very uneventful week on the state polling front, which is not surprising for the dog days of summer. What little movement there was slightly benefitted Kerry.

The battlegrounds have a new addition, as I dropped North Carolina into the mix, anticipating it tightening now that John Edwards is on the Kerry ticket. They now stand as follows:

State	2000 Result	Media Battleground	Current Status
New Jersey	Gore +16	No	Kerry, Lean
Iowa	Gore +0.3	Yes	Kerry, Lean
Michigan	Gore +5	Yes	Kerry, Lean
Oregon	Gore +0.4	Yes	Kerry, Slight
New Hampshire	Bush +1	Yes	Kerry, Slight
Minnesota	Gore +2	Yes	Kerry, Slight
West Virginia	Bush +6	Yes	Kerry, Slight
Ohio	Bush +4	Yes	Tossup
Pennsylvania	Gore +4	Yes	Tossup
Wisconsin	Gore +0.2	Yes	Tossup
New Mexico	Gore +0.06	Yes	Tossup
Florida	Bush +0.01	Yes	Bush, Slight
Arkansas	Bush +5	Yes	Bush, Slight
Virginia	Bush +8	No	Bush, Slight
North Carolina	Bush +13	No	Bush, Slight
Nevada	Bush +4	Yes	Bush, Lean
Arizona	Bush +6	Yes	Bush, Lean
Missouri	Bush +3	Yes	Bush, Lean

	Result	With Tossups
ECB	Kerry 200, Bush 188	Bush 259, Kerry 226
ECB Classic	Kerry 227, Bush 213	Bush Kerry 275, Bush 252
ECB Classic Sans Zogby Interactive	Kerry 237, Bush 230	Bush 282, Kerry 258
Calculated National Result	Bush 44.9%, Kerry 43.8%

	F		Kansas
Electoral Votes: 6
2000 Result
Bush 58%
Gore 37%

Background: Kansas has been a clean sweep for the GOP since Johnson beat Goldwater.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
2/9/04	SurveyUSA	Link	500 RV	4.3%	Bush	52%	Kerry	44%	Bush +8
3/4/04	SurveyUSA	Link	501 RV	4.5%	Bush	57%	Kerry	39%	Bush +18
6/30/04	SurveyUSA	Link	589 LV	4%	Bush	56%	Kerry	36%	Bush +20

Punditry: I hate when poll writeups do not include the actual percentages. It makes things messy. Bush is getting over a quarter of Kansas blacks. Safe for Bush.

	South Carolina
Electoral Votes: 8
2000 Result
Bush 57%
Gore 41%

Background: Jimmy Carter, from neighboring Georgia, won this state. You have to go back to JFK to find another Democrat who was able to do it. Most of the time, it was not all that close although Carter did make it close against Reagan too; the fact that a neighbor was able to twice make the state competitive (and once win it) means that the state will merit more attention should Edwards win the Democrat nomination.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
7/28/03	Hickman Research	Link	?	?	Bush	52%	Unnamed Democrat	36%	Bush +16
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	49%	Kerry	39%	Bush +10
6/29/04	Public Opinion Strategies (R)	NA	LV	4%	Bush	55%	Kerry	40%	Bush +15

Punditry: It is a partisan poll, but the results look reasonable. I am a little suspicious of the Senate poll released with it that showed DeMint leading Tenenbaum by 6% already. I do expect him to win, but I was thinking she would maintain a lead for a bit longer. I am tempted to move SC to safe, but will hold off on doing so until after the Kerry VP announcement; if it is Edwards I want to see what happens here. I doubt he would make it close, but he may make it close enough that a safe designation would be unsafe. Strong Advantage for Bush.

	Washington
Electoral Votes: 11
2000 Result
Gore 50%
Bush 45%

Background: The Democrats have won the last four, and 6 of the last 10, with all four Republican wins coming consecutively (Nixon, Ford, ReaganX2). It is unclear as to if Clinton would have won the first time here sans Perot; it would likely have been extremely close. The Dukakis/Bush race was very close. The Clinton/Dole race was not.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
1/5/04	SurveyUSA	NA	975 RV	3%	Bush	48%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +1
2/4/04	SurveyUSA	Link	975 RV	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	55%	Kerry +12
3/24/04	SurveyUSA	Link	698 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +4
3/25/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +6
4/5/04	The Elway Poll	NA	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +5
4/18/04	Moore Information (R)	Link	500 RV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +4
5/24/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	4.3%	Bush	44.4%	Kerry	52.5%	Kerry +8.1
6/4/04	SurveyUSA	Link	654 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +5
6/6/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	2.3%	Bush	44.4%	Kerry	51.7%	Kerry +7.3
6/11/04	Moore Information (R)	Link	500 RV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
6/11/04	Mason-Dixon**	Link	625 LV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +4
6/21/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	2.8%	Bush	45.2%	Kerry	51.6%	Kerry +6.4%
6/24/04	Moore Information (R)	NA	500 RV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	43%	Push

	F		Michigan
Electoral Votes: 17
2000 Result
Gore 51%
Bush 46%

Background: 2-5-3 in the last ten elections. Without Perot, it likely would have been 2-6-2. Since Lyndon Johnson, only Reagan in his re-elect has approached 60%. Michigan has gone from leaning Bush to having a slight advantage for the Democrats. Republicans have 9 of 15 Representatives, Democrats hold both Senate seats, while Republicans hold both houses of the state legislature. The state executive is split; Democrats hold the Governor and Lt. Governor positions while Republicans have the Secretary of State and Attorney General slots.

Michigan has gone from leaning Bush to having a slight advantage for the Democrats. Republicans have 9 of 15 Representatives, Democrats hold both Senate seats, while Republicans hold both houses of the state legislature. The state executive is split; Democrats hold the Governor and Lt. Governor positions while Republicans have the Secretary of State and Attorney General slots.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
5/26/03	Epic/MRA	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	48%	Unnamed Democrat	41%	Bush +7
9/21/03	Detroit News/Mitchell Research	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Unnamed Democrat	49%	Dem +5
12/10/03	Survey USA	Link	724 LV	3.7%	Bush	53%	Kerry	43%	Bush +10
2/3/04	Survey USA	Link	724 LV	3.7%	Bush	46%	Kerry	51%	Dem +5
2/22/04	Epic/MRA	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	49%	Dem +4
3/1/04	Detroit News/Mitchell Research	Link	LV	4%	Bush	40%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +6
3/14/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +4
3/14/04	Marketing Resource Group	Link	600 RV	4.1%	Bush	47%	Kerry	45%	Bush +2
4/1/04	Epic/MRA	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
4/4/04	Survey USA	Link	536 LV	4.3%	Bush	41%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +10
5/2/04	Survey USA	Link	536 LV	4.3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +4
5/12/04	Detroit News/Mitchell Research	Link	413 LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	40%	Bush +4
5/24/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	4%	Bush	41.2%	Kerry	49.5%	Kerry +8.3
5/31/04	Survey USA	Link	567 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +4
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +6
6/6/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	2.6%	Bush	45.1%	Kerry	49.1%	Kerry +4.0
6/6/04	Epic/MRA	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
6/21/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	3.2%	Bush	46.8%	Kerry	46.1%	Bush +0.7%
6/23/04	Fox Opinion Dynamics	Link	750 LV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	40%	Bush +2
6/30/04	Survey USA	Link	594 LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +10
6/30/04	Detroit News/Mitchell Research	Link	400 LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	43%	Bush +1

Punditry: When I make the designations of the states, I am giving my impression of where the race is. It dawned on me this morning that another way of phrasing this is that I am predicting what the next poll will show, if the race remains the same. Obviously, my last designation in Michigan did not predict the next Michigan poll, despite the fact that the poll was taken over the same timeframe as the last one. This poll and SurveyUSA's are technically within the margin of error of each other (for example, this poll has a MoE of 5, and if you add 5 to Kerry and subtract 3 from Bush in this poll you get Kerry 48, Bush 41; the SurveyUSA poll had a MoE of 4, and if you took 3 away from Kerry's number in that you get the same 44-41 result).

For comparison purposes, the Detroit News poll in 2000 had Gore leading Bush by 6 on November 1st. This poll was part of a survey of the general mood of Michigan residents. In this poll, 48% said that jobs/the economy is the top issue for the state. 47% say the economy is improving while 11% say it is getting worse.

Before the SurveyUSA poll, I had Michigan parked as a tossup. It is a testimony to how much regard I have for their results that I am not pushing it all the way back. However, I do think this result makes it likely that the SurveyUSA result was overstated, and that the state now has a Slight Advantage for Kerry.

	F		California
Electoral Votes: 55
2000 Result
Gore 53%
Bush 42%

Background: On a three election streak for the Democrats, California has a reputation as a liberal bastion. While Gore did handle Bush easily in 2000, the fact is that the reputation may not fit the data on the Presidential level. Only three candidates have broken 53% in California since the 1964 landslide. Al Gore last time, homestate icon Ronald Reagan in his re-election campaign but not his first election, and Richard Nixon in his re-election campaign but not his first successful Presidential campaign.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
8/16/03	Field	NA	RV	4%	Bush	42%	Unnamed Democrat	47%	Dem +5
8/16/03	Public Policy Institute	NA	LV	3%	Bush	40%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Dem +5
1/3/04	Public Policy Institute	Link	LV	3%	Bush	45%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Tied
1/13/04	Field	NA	RV	3.4%	Bush	46%	Unnamed Democrat	47%	Dem +1
1/18/04	Rasmussen	NA	LV	4%	Bush	41%	Unnamed Democrat	46%	Dem +5
2/13/04	Knowledge Networks	Link	RV	4.1%	Bush	38%	Kerry	42%	Dem +4
2/16/04	Public Policy Institute	Link	1,103 LV	3%	Bush	37%	Kerry	54%	Dem +17
2/22/04	LA Times	Link	1,521 RV	3%	Bush	40%	Kerry	53%	Dem +13
2/27/04	Knowledge Networks	Link	505 RV	3.8%	Bush	38%	Kerry	43%	Kerry +5
3/11/04	Rasmussen	Link	455 LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +9
4/17/04	Rasmussen	Link	502 LV	5%	Bush	40%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +11
4/21/04	L.A. Times	Link	1,265 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	39%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +10
4/21/04	L.A. Times	Link	1,265 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	41%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +12
5/6/04	SurveyUSA	Link	635 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +1
5/24/04	Field	Link	647 RV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	40%	Kerry	55%	Kerry +15
5/24/04	Field	Link	647 RV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	39%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +12
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	3%	Bush	41%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +8
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	3%	Bush	38%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +14

Punditry: Rasmussen's new round of state polling releases begins with a favorable, but unsurprising, one from California. Bush leads among conservative voters. Kerry leads among liberals, moderates, men, women, investors, non-Investors, and just about every grouping you can imagine. If SurveyUSA turns out to be right about California, then they will really cement their reputation (while damaging Rasmussen's). Strong Advantage for Kerry.

Not only is this an improvement in Kerry's standing since last month in Rasmussen's survey, it is an even bigger improvement in his standing in Rasmussen's survey since two weeks ago (the mid-month updates are not released to the public).

	F		North Carolina
Electoral Votes: 15
2000 Result
Bush 56%
Gore 43%

Background: Since Lyndon Johnson's win here, only once have the Democrats taken Tar Heel electors. That's a bit deceptive, however, as many times it was extremely close. Carter lost to Reagan here by only two points in that nationwide blowout. Clinton lost two elections by a combined total of 5%. Yet the Clinton losses are also deceptive, in that the margins would have been considerably larger without Perot and his charts. Simply stated, like much of the south North Carolina votes Republican for President, although a southerner atop the ticket can make things interesting; not always though, as Al Gore demonstrated.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
9/16/03	Research2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	51%	Edwards	40%	Bush +11
11/15/03	Research2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	54%	Edwards	42%	Bush +12
11/25/03	Survey USA	Link	563 RV	4.2%	Bush	53%	Kerry	39%	Bush +14
11/25/03	Survey USA	Link	563 RV	4.2%	Bush	52%	Edwards	45%	Bush +7
2/26/04	Survey USA	Link	654 RV	3.9%	Bush	53%	Kerry	42%	Bush +11
3/11/04	Rasmussen	Link	400 LV	3%	Bush	51%	Kerry	43%	Bush +8
4/1/04	Bennett, Petts and Blumenthal (D)	No Link	LV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	44%	Bush +7
5/14/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	41%	Bush +7
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	48%	Kerry	44%	Bush +4
6/16/04	Research2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	42%	Bush +5
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	49%	Kerry	42%	Bush +7

Punditry: So now we know-- it is Edwards. This Rasmussen poll was completed completely before Edwards was named the running mate. My research suggests that in recent elections, a Vice-President nominee is worth between 5-10 points to the topline in his home state. If this holds true this time around, it puts North Carolina in the battleground region. I am assuming it will. Slight Advantage for Bush.

Kerry E		F Bush
Safe	Strong	Lean	Slight	Tossup	Slight	Lean	Strong	Safe
DC (3)	DE (3)	MN (10) K46.5-B42.2 6/14/04	NH (4) K46-B46 6/9/04	NM (5) B46-K45 4/1/04	VA (13) B47-K45 5/31/04	NV (5) B49-K38 3/17/04	SD (3) B50-K35 5/21/04	AK (3)
HI (4)	VT (3) K51-B36 5/1/04	IA (7) K49-B41 5/31/04	WV (5) K47-B44 6/17/04	OR (7) B46-K45 5/31/04	AR (6) B48-K43 5/31/04	MO (11) B48-K37 6/8/04	LA (9) B48-K42 5/31/04	ND (3)
MA (12) K58-B33 5/31/04	IL (21) K52-B39 6/9/04	WA (11) K43-B43*R 6/24/04	MI (17) B44-K43 K51-B41 6/30/04	OH (20) B45-K41 K49-B43 6/23/04	WI (10) B46-K42 6/23/04	TN (11) B51-K41 6/21/04	GA (15) B49-K32 6/2/04	NE (5)
RI (4) K49-B25 6/14/04	MD (10) K52-B38 6/9/04	NJ (15) K46-B40 6/20/04	-	PA (21) B46-K41 6/23/04	FL (27) B43-K43* 6/27/04	CO (9) B48-K434* 6/18/04	KY (8) B52-K39 6/8/04	WY (3)
NY (31) K52-B34 6/14/04	CA (55) K52-B38 6/30/04	ME (4) K43.5-B41.0* 6/12/04	-	-	NC (15) B49-K42 6/30/04	AZ (10) B47-K35* 6/27/04	SC (8) B55-K40*R 6/29/04	ID (4) B55-K23 3/17/04
CT (7) K50-B32* 6/28/04	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	MS (6) B61.2-K30.0 4/21/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	UT (5) B67-K22 5/10/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	MT (3) B53-K33 5/26/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	AL (9) B57-K36 5/31/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	TX (34) B55-K38 5/31/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	IN (11) B52-K36 6/21/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	OK (7) B60-K34 6/23/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	KS (6) B56-K36 6/30/04
Totals
Kerry States	Battleground States	Bush States
61	92	47	26	53	71	46	43	99
200	150	188

* Indicates a Registered Voter poll as opposed to a Likely Voter poll.
*R Indicates a partisan Republican poll. *D Inidcates a partisan Democrat poll.
** Indicates a poll of either adults or residents.

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ECB	Bush -15, Kerry unchanged	Bush unchanged, Kerry +17
ECB Classic	Bush +25, Kerry +6	Bush -17, Kerry +6
ECB Classic Sans Zogby Interactive	Bush unchanged, Kerry +17	Bush -17, Kerry +6
Calculated National Result	Bush -0.2%, Kerry +0.4%