Posted on 07/07/2004 7:50:00 AM PDT by Bonaventure
DEM04: 0.531 REP04: 0.494
(Excerpt) Read more at 128.255.244.60 ...
well this is disconerting
Wee bit of a knee-jerk reaction.
Didn't we expect a bump?
I've never played this market?
Can you short?
No... but if you put down $49.40 on Bush to win, you'll win $100.
Not really. Kerry will be ahead by a decent margin at the end of this month, just as Dubya was ahead of Gore by a decent margin at the end of July 2000. The Iowa markets are just combining the certainty of the Kerry bump with the uncertainty of the size of the subsequent Bush bump.
Should Read: Iowa Investors Smoke Dope, Reminisce About Clinton/Gore Years
What else would be expected from Idiots Out Walking Around.
I think everyone expected a bump -- perhaps even a bigger one than this.
It'll be interesting to watch Rasmussen over the next few days. His poll has been stable for literally months. I expect a breakout for Kerry now that he has picked Edwards. If Kerry can't surge a little now, he's doomed.
Yep and there is another 4 months till the election.
There is wise old adage in politics, "24 hours is a lifetime".
There is a reason why it has become an adage.
Dear Lord, my tagline was obliterated!
That's better.
I still expect all the polls for the next two months to show John-Squared ahead by 10%-20%.
Has an incumbent who won reelection ever fallen 20 points back of the challenger in the history of U.S. politics? I know George H.W. Bush fell about 17 points behind Michael Dukakis, but George H.W. Bush was not the incumbent in 1988.
Whether or not they actually are up by that much is another question entirely.
Yep, that's the real question. It doesn't matter if Lurch gets a bounce from adding the Breck Girl to the ticket and his convention or not. The media will create some polls telling us he ahead.
Note to self: Always read the preview.
It's odd that a market would react to totally predictable news. But then, that makes it easy to make money.
Well they've already created one showing them up by 8%, kinda like the time they had the OTHER John² (Kerry-McCain) up by 13%. In reality, they're probably not going to get much of a bounce at all, reason: Kerry is an awful candidate and Edwards is not the #1 no matter how much they play him up. The illusion of a big bump will be created though.
You can short DEM by going long REP. The mechanics of the market are such that the bids always total <= 1.000, and the asks always total >= 1.000
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