If you go to Rasmussen's "electoral votes," he has Ohio and Florida as tossups rather than in the Bush camp, where the latest polls have them. If you move them where the polls show them to be, Bush leads by 30+ EVs, without PA or MI.
I have the rassmussen site bookmarked, I check it everyday, but as with most polls, I take them with a grain of salt, sometimes two. IMHO, Bush will comfortably, but that october surprise is still out there..