Posted on 07/05/2004 12:30:01 PM PDT by The Bandit
Despite the lack of enthusiasm John Kerry has shown for his very own campaign, he will become the 44th President of the United States.
Although it can be easily argued that it is much too early to call this election, I feel confident that a majority of Americans are so disgusted with the actions of George W. Bush and his administration that they would vote for any candidate that does not come from Bush family lineage.
As it stands in the current polls, Bush and Kerry are neck-and-neck by percentage; however Kerry has a lead in the Electoral College with the added comfort that several swing states will most likely close in his favor. According to Republican pollster, Scott Rasmussen, Florida, Michigan, New Mexico, Oregon and Pennsylvania are in the "tossup" category. That's an additional 77 points that are going to swing Kerry's way. The remaining tossups will go to Bush giving him 48 extra points. The bottom line: Kerry 287, Bush 251. This would be a conservative estimate.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtondispatch.com ...
I refuse to listen to political commentary from someone who doesn't even know the difference between electoral college votes and POINTS!
I lost almost all respect I had for Morris' predictions when he said that Hillary was the defacto incumbent versus Lazio in 2000, and that all the undecideds would go for Lazio -- instead Hillary got almost all of them and won going away -- and when he said that the GOP has run out of white people, that it has maxed out its support from whites -- despite the fact that Bush's paltry 54% was 5 points less than his father got in 1988 and 10 points less than Reagan got in 1984, and 13 points less than Nixon got in 1972. That was the type of PC analysis I expect from the left, not some supposed independent thinker who tells it like it is.
I will still proceed to write this stupid article.
1. Because I can.
2. Because I get paid.
I feel confident that a majority of Americans are so disgusted with the actions of George W. Bush and his administration that they would vote for any candidate that does not come from Bush family lineage.
There is money to be made here; and great opportunity for my future; but the window is narrow. Kerry has a big fat war chest, and favors will be dispensed after he wins.
I want to be remembered as being on board from the get-go.
What is this guy smoking??
That might have been the one. Wasn't she the boss at the Washington Post, or Times?
The name's not all that important, my point was to show that liberals tend to associate with their own kind, and aren't really aware how of the rest of America thinks.
Pauline Kael, the well-known movie reviewer for New Yorker magazine. She was one of the first American movie critics to give positive reviews to the gritty youth-oriented films of the late 60s: movies such as Midnight Cowboy, Five Easy Pieces, Easy Rider, etc.
YAY! That's her! Thanks!
Way to go, Shane, keep up the writing. Someone send the boy some Adam Smith.
"No,no. Favours will be dispensed during the campaign. After the campaign there won't be anything left, and anyway I'm never going to get anything from Bush, as I'm a stupid liberal a.."
The perception of arrogance is generated within the observer in this case, as the superiority of the policies of those mentioned has been proven beyond doubt.
It must really smart to be proven wrong 100% of the time by EVENTS, as the Bushies' style is to allow events and results speak for them, and have gone out of their way not to appear haughty.
I'm pleased to see this, I consider this article and its tone to be an indication of frustration and futility on the part of our ideological adversaries.
Note to self: re-invest in white flags and fetal brain tissue vacuums.
LOL. You mean the cousin of Roy Cohn and Jules Feiffer?
Talk about whip lash.
Lots of ppl disect the polls, but that doesn't change the fact that Rasmussen blew it big time in 2000.... So as Nov draws nigh we'll see how others project the outcome...
I don't put much into this article either, but wouldn't some of you agree that its at least a troubling sign that a guy so far to the left has managed to stay so close or even slightly ahead in the polls? Kerry is one of the most liberal Senators ever. He would appoint judges who make Ginsburg look like a moderate. He would raise taxes. He would make the military vulnerable to the type of leftwing social engineering that the Clinton regime began ( and that the Bush adm has at least stalled, though they should be reversing them). The Supreme Court would be lost for decades if he were to win. Gay marriage would be imposed nationwide, late-term abortions will never be restricted, the Second Amendment may be eviscerated. One could go on and on.
That he has done as good as he has so far is worrisome. I think it speaks to some inherent weakness in Bush, and to a country that is slowly moving left to the point where some of Kerry's wacko, far left ideas don't seem so wacko anymore to a lot of people.
Now the good news is of course that he has done fairly well by keeping a relatively low profile because he and his handlers know that people don't really like him, that he's cold and patrician-like, and that in reality his record is so far to the left that even a nation that may be trending towards him is still a long ways from going that far. Also, he has been unable to open up a lasting significant lead despite months of bad Iraq news for Bush which again speaks to Kerry's inherent weakness.
Hopefully this will be Dukakis all over again. That liberal from Mass had a big early lead over Bush I before the campaign really got going in 1988, but once people got a good look at the guy it was all over for him. Hopefully the same will happen here and people will determine that despite their misgivings with and disappointments in Bush, he's still preferable to Kerry.
Oh. Dear. God.
Latest from Bush pollster Matthew Dowd:
As the post-primary season winds down and Kerry's VP selection and convention approach, I wanted to share with you what we should expect polls to show in early August.An examination of Gallup polls in presidential elections since 1976 reveals that a challenger's vice presidential selection and nominating convention can have a dramatic (if often short-lived) effect on the head-to-head poll numbers. In fact, historical analysis suggests John Kerry should have a lead of more than 15 points coming out of his convention…
1. An average of the most recent public polls shows the race is a dead heat.
2. Assuming that Kerry enjoys the average challenger's bounce (15.4% since 1976), we should expect the state of the race to swing wildly to his favor by early August.
Democrats themselves expect Kerry to have a sizeable lead after his convention. On Face the Nation on Sunday, DNC head Terry McAuliffe said, `We are about to pick our vice presidential nominee. We're about to go into a convention of four days and I think once we finish up our convention, I think you're going to see Senator Kerry anywhere from eight to twelve points up.’”
Posted at 03:34 PM
'The Corner' in National Review, July 5, 2004)
http://www.nationalreview.com/thecorner/corner.asp
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