Get some!
Posted on 06/29/2004 6:34:16 PM PDT by Axion
Summary
Washington and Tehran are engaging in a series of diplomatic spats while Iran attempts to make the United States recognize its strength. The question is: How long will the United States let the game continue?
Analysis
The United States has expelled two Iranian security guards from New York City for taking photographs of local landmarks, infrastructure and transport systems. Washington said the two were involved in activities "incompatible with their stated duties." In diplomatic terms: They were spies. The men, who worked security for the Iranian mission to the United Nations, were observed taking photos in June 2002 and November 2003.
The U.S. government has suspected the men were spies for at least two years, indicating that the June 29 expulsion was determined by the recent escalation in tensions between Tehran and Washington. Iran hopes to manage a crisis and redefine its role in the gulf -- with American cooperation. The United States, on the other hand, is demonstrating its determination to keep Tehran contained.
The situation will escalate in the coming weeks into a series of diplomatic tit-for-tat spats. Iran will likely respond to Washington's latest move with an expulsion of its own within the next two weeks, likely of a CIA operative it might have identified in Iran. Tehran probably would hold the detainee for interrogation and ultimately negotiate his release. Should Iran wait longer to respond, it would signal that Tehran did not expect Washington's move -- and had not prepared a counteraction.
Iran does not want a war with the United States. It does want a managed escalation in tensions that will force Washington to acknowledge Persia's natural and enduring hegemony of the gulf region. It also wants the United States and Britain to back off the nuclear issue.
Iran has invited the Americans to play a game of diplomatic chess. The detention of the eight British sailors June 21 and their release three days later was meant as an opening salvo. The message broadcast to Washington via London was that Tehran could and would have a say in the military and political affairs of Iraq and the gulf. Five days later, the United States made its move.
The decision by the United States to retaliate for the British sailor's detention -- rather than let London respond -- suggests Washington is happy to join the contest. It is likely both sides will continue to fuel the crisis, with Iran taking carefully calculated moves meant to provoke a carefully calculated response -- and vice versa.
The critical question is how far Washington will let this go. Tehran is playing a subtle game and expects the United States to respond as carefully. Washington is not known for subtle responses in general -- and at this point in history has a low tolerance for political games with Muslim countries. It certainly is not going to cede hegemony in the gulf to Iran over the detainment of a few British sailors or a single CIA spy. Nor is Iran about to let its centuries-old dream of controlling the Persian Gulf go up in smoke over losing a couple of U.N.-based spooks.
This is just getting started.
Next move, hit the reactors + plus the "Parliament". destroy all the Iranian troops on the Iraqi border (This time use shock and awe) and let it be know to the Iranians, that any retaliation by Iran will be met like Japan in WWII.
FMCDH(BITS)
bttt
Omitting Israel would seem to be a major oversight in Stratfor's analysis here.
I'd say omitting the whole issue of competitive Iraqi oil production and price-fixing by "terrorism" is a real big hole.
Washington is not known for subtle responses in general -- and at this point in history has a low tolerance for political games with Muslim countries.
What a beautifully understated phrase...
I hope we heat things up before the July demonstrations...and I hope we take advantage of the possibility for an uprising...
Yeah, Stratfor is like that. My post wasn't intended as an exhaustive critique :-).
The men, who worked security for the Iranian mission to the United Nations, were observed taking photos in June 2002 and November 2003.
These weren't the same men... the men in the earlier incidents have long ago been deported. These are new guys.
(and I need to work on my typing)
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