The networks get all there numbers that you see on the TV, from the AP.
My comments are based upon what I discovered from looking into the matter, the night after the 1996 elections.
As I said before, there may be more accuracy, but I doubt it.
My point is, that the people, in general, think that the numbers shown on the TV are the actual count; they are unaware of the estimates included.
An estimate at a precinct, might go something like this:
An AP agent counts all the people who come out of the door. The ask questions of the people leaving, and then make an estimate of the whole, based upon the sampling of the few who were willing to talk about their choices.
Those estimates are reported to the AP center that in turn, the TV networks monitor for the numbers that they will choose to report on the TV screen.
The network numbers differ, because of the fluid situation and because the networks also "balance" the estimates with their own.
This gets to be a problem for close races and can mislead people.
My own two cents is, that no reporting should be permitted for 24 hours, that is, until the evening after election day.
Thanks for clarifying that process by AP. It makes more sense to me now.My 2 cents on the matter is that on local elections, NO reports on the elections should be released until ALL the local polling places are CLOSED. On state elections, NO reports on the elections should be released until ALL the state polling places are CLOSED. And on National elections, NO reports on the elections should be released until ALL National polling places are CLOSED. Any media violating that should face jail time !
It is just PURE BS for the media to affect voter turnout or lack of turnout. And until something is done to stop it, it will continue. It's bad enough we have to fight the 'RATS voter fraud (dead voters, etc.).
< /rant >
The result of the 2000 Presidential Election was called, recalled, called again and recounted. On November 7, 2001, NBC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, ABC and the Associated Press had all called Florida for Gore and all before 8 p.m. EST. The polls in the panhandle were still open when the presidential race was projected.The Voter News Service ("VNS") was established in 1994 by ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN and the Associated Press with Fox News service becoming a member in 1997. In providing an election projection, VNS collects survey responses, or exit polls, actual vote tallies as well as the vote count from precincts and counties. Based upon this information, VNS provides data and analysis to all of the members equally. In 2000, VNS projected that Gore would take Florida at 7:52 p.m. This projection was recalled at 9:40 p.m., which resulted in media recalls and later erroneous projections.
Following the 2000 Presidential Election, many of the nation's major broadcast media outlets adopted a policy of not reporting or projecting which candidate has carried a state until all the polls are closed in that state. It should be noted that these major media corporations have made and adopted similar policies in the past that have not been adhered to. In 1985, many major networks reached an agreement with Congress to not announce results until a state's polls were closed. There are, of course, many other media outlets from which voters may still hear projections regarding ongoing contests, and it is unclear whether local network affiliates will refrain from projecting winners in Florida's statewide election contests until the polls in the panhandle close.
Because content based prior restraints on political speech are virtually prohibited by the First Amendment, government cannot effectively impede the conduct of exit polls by VNS. States' attempts to bar or discourage exit polling have been consistently rejected.
[link for above quote]. IIRC, the VNS is now defunct, so maybe they all rely on the AP exit polls these days.
But they ARE exit polls, not counted votes.