| North Dakota | 97 | 3 | 0 |
| Oklahoma | 97 | 7 | 0 |
| Alabama | 96 | 9 | 0 |
| Nebraska | 96 | 5 | 0 |
| Texas | 96 | 34 | 0 |
| Utah | 96 | 5 | 0 |
| Wyoming | 96 | 3 | 0 |
| Idaho | 95 | 4 | 0 |
| South Dakota | 95 | 3 | 0 |
| Mississippi | 94.5 | 6 | 0 |
| Alaska | 94 | 3 | 0 |
| Kansas | 94 | 6 | 0 |
| Georgia | 93 | 15 | 0 |
| Indiana | 93 | 11 | 0 |
| Montana | 93 | 3 | 0 |
| Kentucky | 91 | 8 | 0 |
| South Carolina | 91 | 8 | 0 |
| Tennessee | 87 | 11 | 0 |
| Louisiana | 81 | 9 | 0 |
| Virginia | 80 | 13 | 0 |
| Colorado | 77 | 9 | 0 |
| North Carolina | 75 | 15 | 0 |
| Arizona | 68 | 10 | 0 |
| Arkansas | 67 | 6 | 0 |
| Missouri | 62 | 11 | 0 |
| Florida | 61 | 27 | 0 |
| Nevada | 59 | 5 | 0 |
| Ohio | 59 | 20 | 0 |
| West Virginia | 57 | 5 | 0 |
| New Hampshire | 54 | 4 | 0 |
| New Mexico | 50 | 0 | 5 |
| Oregon | 45 | 0 | 7 |
| Pennsylvania | 44 | 0 | 21 |
| Wisconsin | 42 | 0 | 10 |
| Iowa | 40 | 0 | 7 |
| Michigan | 36 | 0 | 17 |
| Minnesota | 32 | 0 | 10 |
| Washington | 25 | 0 | 11 |
| Delaware | 21 | 0 | 3 |
| New Jersey | 20 | 0 | 15 |
| Maine | 19 | 0 | 4 |
| California | 13 | 0 | 55 |
| Illinois | 12 | 0 | 21 |
| Maryland | 12 | 0 | 10 |
| Connecticut | 9 | 0 | 7 |
| Hawaii | 9 | 0 | 4 |
| New York | 9 | 0 | 31 |
| Vermont | 6 | 0 | 3 |
| Rhode Island | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| Massachusetts | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| DC | 0.9 | 0 | 3 |
Bush has a greater than 50% probablity of winning in 31 states, Kerry only 19 plus DC.
Looking at the 'swing' as defined by within 10% by this poll/odds, Bush has 34 electoral votes 'at risk' to Kerry's 50 votes at risk. Defining the swing as 7% leaves Bush with 9 at risk and Kerry with 33 at risk.