Conrad Black: Worthwhile Canadian Election – Conservatives just might win.

Canada will vote tomorrow, and for the first time since the Free Trade election of 1988 there is a possibility of a party other than the Liberals winning the election. Polls indicate Prime Minister Paul Martin's Liberals and his Conservative opponents running closely, with neither likely to have a majority in Parliament. In the 20th century, the Canadian Liberal Party was the most successful of any party in any important democratic country with continuous parties. It governed for 70 years in that century (against 57 years for the British Conservatives and 53 for the U.S. Republicans).

Ever since the Conservatives imposed conscription on a reluctant Quebec in World War I, the Liberal formula has been to be the major party more favorable to Quebec and more heavily influenced by Quebec leaders, earning comparative popularity in that province and convincing moderate English-speaking Canadians that it was better equipped to prevent the disaffection of Quebec with Canada. The Liberals have generally placed themselves in economic and social policy between the Conservatives and the socialist party, called the New Democrats for the last 43 years (though their novelty has long since worn off).

For most of their history, the Canadian Conservatives have been an uneasy coalition of prairie populists and Toronto Tories, and generally an aggregation of people united by the fact that, for differing reasons, they weren't Liberals. Brian Mulroney, the prime minister from 1984 through 1993, managed briefly to broaden the party to include Quebec autonomists. When this came unstuck, the Conservatives splintered into three parties, one for western Canadian radicals, one for French Quebec nationalists (the Bloc Quebecois) and one for continuing, as they used to be called, Progressive Conservatives.

The present election is interesting because two of those fragments have reunited in the reorganized Conservative Party. And in a piquant irony, the balance of power in the next parliament will likely be held by the third, the Bloc Quebecois. Separatism has been decisively rejected by the voters of Quebec, and this party exists at the federal level at all only because the former separatist leader happened to be a federal member of Parliament when he defected from the Mulroney government to set up his party.

I work in the the Conservative campaign in Ontario, and on Monday we vote. The advance polls' turnout was 96% higher than in other elections, which could mean people are asking for change, and that could be really good for our side.

Conservative candidates are generally clean-cut, pro-US (or at least not anti-US), pro tax cuts, pro government fiscal responsibility, pro-military, pro-small business, pro-morality. Can't say the same for the Liberals, not by a long shot. And DEFINITELY can't say it for the New Democrats (should be spelled DemoKrats) - a very, very left-wing party.

It's a strange situation here right now, actually. It's a very, very close election, from all indications. If Conservatives don't manage to pull off a win, they are set to do so the next time around (about four years)and would have the time to build up party strength and the solid backing of the people. They are pretty powerful in an opposition position.

If they DO manage a win - and they could - they would almost certainly form a minority government, and that would put them in the unenvionable position of having to fight hard for everything in their current platform, with a failed program perhaps triggering a vote of non-confidence, which could bring the government down and force another election.

Which could be okay - as long as enough time has passed for them to build up the necessary confidence of the electorate in them to win a majority that time around. A Conservative majority win could be really GREAT for this country, and our relationship with the U.S.

These are just my musings, and I suspect they will only confuse you, if you're not familiar with the way our weird government works.

We used to be a two-party system, but we now have Liberals, Conservatives (a joining of the former Progressive Conservatives and the Alliance Party), Progressive Conservatives who DIDN'T join with the Alliance, the New Democrats, the Quebec Bloc, and a few bits and pieces of parties, including, believe it or not, the Communist Party (although they never elect anyone). You have a right to be confused. I probably didn't help much.

Actually, this is helpful. I appreciate all the feedback.
I understood the different parties, but am less familiar with the constitutional details, which of course are very important. I think the U.S.'s separation-of-powers system serves us less well than it did at one time. However, coalition governments would be an awful drawback of a parliamentary system.

I caught a little of one of the debates. Harper seems pretty good.

By the way, was Robertson Davies a (small-c) conservative?
I'm finishing his Deptford Trilogy right now, and previously read another of his novels. I have the growing impression that he was somewhat right of center, at least culturally.

The Conservatives' aim for a permanent two party system. Unlike the Progressive Conservatives of the past, they're not interested in sharing Liberal spoils. They're interested in being permanent contenders for national power. If they win a minority Monday, their aim will be to work with other opposition parties on measures to put the Liberals in their place. No wonder Canada's once natural governing party is panicked. Imagine an end to the natural order of things and a Canada without the Liberals, who stradded the Left-Right divide in the country for decades, was an unthinkable proposition, until now. We may well be witnessing in the Liberals' loss of hegemony, the birth of a New Canada.

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