Posted on 06/21/2004 5:41:56 PM PDT by freedom44
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Moses Murphy was as Republican as they come. The 27-year-old former Marine always voted a straight ticket and his Jeep Cherokee sported three "Bush-Cheney '04" bumper stickers.
But two months ago as the Boardsman, Ohio, resident was surfing the Internet, he came across the Web site for the Constitution Party, a small, conservative group still struggling to be on the ballot in every state.
Off came the Bush paraphernalia and now Murphy's Jeep is plastered with stickers for Michael Peroutka, the Constitution Party's little-known presidential nominee.
Media attention has focused on Ralph Nader as a potential spoiler to presumptive Democratic nominee John Kerry, but President Bush could face a similar threat from third party candidates on the right.
The Constitution and Libertarian parties believe they could siphon away enough disenchanted conservatives to tip a close election.
For Murphy, Bush's proposal to grant amnesty to illegal immigrants living in the United States was the final straw.
"We can't keep letting illegals come in; we need troops on the border," Murphy said in a telephone interview. "(Bush's) views no longer reflect my views, and I need to vote my principles."
The party occupying the White House is typically more prone to disgruntled ideologues bolting for a third party, said Lawrence Jacobs, director of the 2004 Elections Project for the Humphrey Institute at the University of Minnesota.
And hardline conservatives have no shortage of gripes with the president they helped elect. Topping the list is the dramatic increase in federal spending, especially the $500 billion new Medicare entitlement for prescription drugs Bush pushed through Congress, said Paul Weyrich, head of the Free Congress Foundation and a leading conservative activist.
Weyrich said grassroots conservatives "have a real problem with this administration's out of control spending."
TIPPING THE BALANCE
But it is unclear whether this grumbling on the right will translate into votes for the Libertarian or Constitution party nominees. In 2000, the Libertarian nominee received only about 385,000 votes or 0.36 percent, and conservative commentator Pat Buchanan won about 450,000 or 0.42 percent. By contrast, Nader, running from the left, took almost 3 million votes or 2.74 percent and possibly swung the election to Bush with a strong Florida showing.
Any defections from Bush's base would be "minuscule" said Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, and the policy gripes of Washington political elites do not necessarily resonate among the Republican rank-and-file.
"Spokesman for the conservative movement see it as their job to grumble" when politicians on the right begin to stray, Rothenberg said.
However, even a handful of defections in key states could tip the balance. For Bush to have a hope of winning, Rothenberg said, his support among Republicans cannot dip much below 90 percent.
Unlike Nader, who was on 43 state ballots in 2000 as the Green Party nominee and is struggling to match that this year, the Libertarian nominee is typically on the ballot in all 50 states, Jacobs said.
The Constitution Party was on the presidential ballot in 42 states in 2000.
Libertarians have already proven they can decide the outcome of close elections. In the 2002 South Dakota Senate race, the Republican challenger lost by about 500 votes, with the Libertarian candidate receiving more than 3,000.
That same year, Libertarian candidates in the Wisconsin and Oregon gubernatorial races received 11 and 5 percent respectively, far exceeding the Democrat's margin of victory.
Bush lost both Oregon and Wisconsin by less than a percentage point in 2000, and both will be in play this year.
Swing states like New Hampshire and Nevada may also be fertile ground for Libertarians, Jacobs said.
But the Libertarian and Constitution party platforms could be an obstacle in peeling away conservative votes from Bush.
Both sound familiar conservative themes of slashing government and lowering taxes, but they also advocate the immediate withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq, and the Libertarians are socially liberal, supporting abortion rights and drug legalization. A general rule of thumb, Rothenberg said, is that about half of the voters who support third parties are outsiders who would not vote if their candidate was not running.
But if his candidacy does siphon away enough conservatives from Bush to put Kerry in the White House, Libertarian presidential nominee Michael Badnarik says that is fine with him. There is little difference between the major parties, he said, and playing the spoiler in a presidential election would greatly enhance Libertarians' national profile.
Peroutka, the Constitution nominee, said a Kerry victory could even help the conservative cause by prompting Republicans in Congress, who have approved Bush's spending increases, to oppose similar measures proposed by Kerry.
As I said in Freepmail, I didn't want to hijack the thread. If clicking on URLs is beyond you, that's too bad. Your nastiness doesn't make for a cordial exchange, anyway.
Go...run away and just keep on telling yourself how principled and brilliant you are,whilst I laugh my socks off at you and than GOD, that nobody has to count on you for anything.
Like those who cherry-pick quotes from the FFs,post them as refutation,and then get huffy,when on called on doing so. LOL
"the extreme religious right"...Aren't they pre-disposed to vote for bush and if so why isolate them?
No, he wasn't a shoo-in. Perot got double digits. I expected him to, as did many others. HW Bush didn't deserve a second term. IMHO.
Keep on dancin' and whistlin' and maybe it will work out. I mean, it's not like the 2000 election was close or anything.
Your sarcastic remarks make no difference to me. The facts are that the Constitution Party and Libertarian Party have complete nobody's running this year, and they won't have the effect discussed by this article.
The Constitution Party is irrelevant.
The Libertarian Party will take far fewer voters than they have in the recent past. Those people (like myself) who share much in common with the LP positions on domestic issues will never vote for the Party. Why? Simply because in the era of terror and Islamofacism the LP is insane when it comes to national defense, foreign policy and the war on terror. The notion that we can become "fortress America" and withdraw from the World is absurd. Open borders? Are you kidding?
This election is too important to play games. I have many misgivings about the GOP and this White House. However, outside the war on terror, all pales in significance.
except in razor thin situations like florida 2000 where if buchanan got 8 (eight) extra votes per county algor would be president...
as marginal or as splinter-prone you deem the const. party to be, they could resonate dynamically with extreme religious conservatives and strict constitutionlist in the bible belt...and if they could cost a strategic state or two, like fl, they could be sending more than a message...i say: bring 'em back home...
Here's an excerpt. These are some facts...
Repression's point man, John Ashcroft, overturned Janet Reno's hands-off approach to state medical regulation, and has only recently been rebuked for overstepping his authority: The 'fifty laboratories of democracy' concept resists a national board of 'czars.'
The 'under God' controversy, sexual freedom laws, gay marriage, the 'Ten Commandments' rulings, point to a future of respect for the individual and his liberty free from victimless criminalization and petty moralizing.
In a day when 'Republican' has little relation to 'conservative,' it's no surprise 'normal' Americans are experiencing a Columbian shock. This isn't India, Captain, it's the New World.
It's interesting to see how many sheeple-on-the-Right willingly participate in fragmenting the conservative vote by voting for the Conservative party de jour. No wonder we can't get rid of the Liberals. It's the voters, stupid.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/backroom/1126568/posts?page=1
Idiocy? Have you ever bothered to read the founding platform for the Republican Party? (Above) Read it and tell me how many Republicans come anywhere close to those dictums. Yet you feel the need to consider those of principle idiots? The idiots are the ones who keep voting for the same side after they've been betrayed time and time again. Read it and weep. That is why the CP is now number three and growing faster than the other two parties. People are just sick and tired of being sold out.
Yeah, but I think many are also sick and tired of having to live in the real world. Conservative third parties have had absolutely no political impact in modern American political history. Perot had an impact, but 1) he wasn't a party, but a personality; and 2) his issues were not ideological in nature. George Wallace had an impact, but again, as a potent personality; it was him, not his party.
It all comes down to whether you think Bush is preferable to Kerry. Anyone who denies that Bush is preferable (however flawed) is simply too stupid or too unhinged from reality to debate with.
I wonder if he knows that Peroutka wants to cut and run from Iraq ....
Some of us conservatives don't wish to share the title with organizations that dance all over the racism line. And the "blame everything on the Mexicans" lines those organizations sometimes espouse is clearly over the line and is a serious taint that we do not wish to have associated with us.
So ..... what do you like about the Constitution candidate this time around? Cutting-and-running in Iraq? or surrendering to Osama?
Yes President Bush has done and will do some things I don't like. But Kerry will do EVERYTHING I don't want done.
A vote against Bush is a vote FOR Kerry. Only idiots can't see that.
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