Posted on 06/21/2004 5:41:56 PM PDT by freedom44
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Moses Murphy was as Republican as they come. The 27-year-old former Marine always voted a straight ticket and his Jeep Cherokee sported three "Bush-Cheney '04" bumper stickers.
But two months ago as the Boardsman, Ohio, resident was surfing the Internet, he came across the Web site for the Constitution Party, a small, conservative group still struggling to be on the ballot in every state.
Off came the Bush paraphernalia and now Murphy's Jeep is plastered with stickers for Michael Peroutka, the Constitution Party's little-known presidential nominee.
Media attention has focused on Ralph Nader as a potential spoiler to presumptive Democratic nominee John Kerry, but President Bush could face a similar threat from third party candidates on the right.
The Constitution and Libertarian parties believe they could siphon away enough disenchanted conservatives to tip a close election.
For Murphy, Bush's proposal to grant amnesty to illegal immigrants living in the United States was the final straw.
"We can't keep letting illegals come in; we need troops on the border," Murphy said in a telephone interview. "(Bush's) views no longer reflect my views, and I need to vote my principles."
The party occupying the White House is typically more prone to disgruntled ideologues bolting for a third party, said Lawrence Jacobs, director of the 2004 Elections Project for the Humphrey Institute at the University of Minnesota.
And hardline conservatives have no shortage of gripes with the president they helped elect. Topping the list is the dramatic increase in federal spending, especially the $500 billion new Medicare entitlement for prescription drugs Bush pushed through Congress, said Paul Weyrich, head of the Free Congress Foundation and a leading conservative activist.
Weyrich said grassroots conservatives "have a real problem with this administration's out of control spending."
TIPPING THE BALANCE
But it is unclear whether this grumbling on the right will translate into votes for the Libertarian or Constitution party nominees. In 2000, the Libertarian nominee received only about 385,000 votes or 0.36 percent, and conservative commentator Pat Buchanan won about 450,000 or 0.42 percent. By contrast, Nader, running from the left, took almost 3 million votes or 2.74 percent and possibly swung the election to Bush with a strong Florida showing.
Any defections from Bush's base would be "minuscule" said Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, and the policy gripes of Washington political elites do not necessarily resonate among the Republican rank-and-file.
"Spokesman for the conservative movement see it as their job to grumble" when politicians on the right begin to stray, Rothenberg said.
However, even a handful of defections in key states could tip the balance. For Bush to have a hope of winning, Rothenberg said, his support among Republicans cannot dip much below 90 percent.
Unlike Nader, who was on 43 state ballots in 2000 as the Green Party nominee and is struggling to match that this year, the Libertarian nominee is typically on the ballot in all 50 states, Jacobs said.
The Constitution Party was on the presidential ballot in 42 states in 2000.
Libertarians have already proven they can decide the outcome of close elections. In the 2002 South Dakota Senate race, the Republican challenger lost by about 500 votes, with the Libertarian candidate receiving more than 3,000.
That same year, Libertarian candidates in the Wisconsin and Oregon gubernatorial races received 11 and 5 percent respectively, far exceeding the Democrat's margin of victory.
Bush lost both Oregon and Wisconsin by less than a percentage point in 2000, and both will be in play this year.
Swing states like New Hampshire and Nevada may also be fertile ground for Libertarians, Jacobs said.
But the Libertarian and Constitution party platforms could be an obstacle in peeling away conservative votes from Bush.
Both sound familiar conservative themes of slashing government and lowering taxes, but they also advocate the immediate withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq, and the Libertarians are socially liberal, supporting abortion rights and drug legalization. A general rule of thumb, Rothenberg said, is that about half of the voters who support third parties are outsiders who would not vote if their candidate was not running.
But if his candidacy does siphon away enough conservatives from Bush to put Kerry in the White House, Libertarian presidential nominee Michael Badnarik says that is fine with him. There is little difference between the major parties, he said, and playing the spoiler in a presidential election would greatly enhance Libertarians' national profile.
Peroutka, the Constitution nominee, said a Kerry victory could even help the conservative cause by prompting Republicans in Congress, who have approved Bush's spending increases, to oppose similar measures proposed by Kerry.
If you don't see any differences between Bush and Kerry, you got a serious problem. I'd call it short term political amnesia, but that would be too nice. Better yet, lets call it, empty braincase syndrome.
Oh this is funny.
If the constitution party was big enough to make a difference, I would like joining them. But, they have ZERO impact. The vote is so small it barely registers and makes the Green Party look like a massive swelling of support.
All the little rightist third parties totaled up don't even make up half the nutty lefty party membership.
In short: they matter nothing.
By the way, your good buddy rove is the one who rabidly spewed to Congressman Tom Tancredo to 'LEAVE THIS WHITE HOUSE AND DON'T EVER DARKEN OUR DOORSTEP AGAIN'.
sounds like your tubby balding hero has a hot temper, as you apparently tried to allude to in your veiled threat above. I think i am right after all.. you ARE Rove!! LOL!
Some people just gravitate toward jackboots, Dane. It's their resolve that the rest of us better get in line that passes me by.
Oh, another reason why the Constitution Party and Liberarians won't be a factor: they aren't even considered a factor by the news media (except for Reuters of course...lol).
ABC, CBS, NBC, Fox, MSNBC, CNN......they will talk all day about Ralph Nader but give the Libertarians and Constitution Party folks nothing.
There is NO guarantee that both House will remain in the hands of the GOP and the slimmest of slim majority the GOP holds in the Senate,is smoke and mirrors at best.
By voting for a fringe candidate for president,in the hopes that both Houses would keep a Kerry presidency in check,is palpably foolish and delusional!
Clinton got away with LOTS,even when the GOPers were pressing him with welfare reform and balanced budgets.Kerry wouldn't be any different!And to assume that your daydreams would be better than a second term of President Bush,is silly and detrimental to all of us.
Just thank GOD,that there are enough of us out here,working to re-elect President Bush,to save your sorry rears.
You're right. Presidential nominations to the SC is not only a major issue, its a critical issue too. My point is, third party candidates on the right totaled 1.1% of the entire vote in 2000. You've got to make allowences for fringe misfits and extremist militants in every general election.
And you are the roadkill in the middle of road.
"..And since you seem to love RINOS so much,..."
A RINO is not a Republican office holder who may have supported some issues with which many Republicans may disagree. By definition, a RINO (Republican In Name Only) is a self professed Republican who will not vote for the Republican candidate versus other candidates in any given race. To believe or espouse anything else is politically dishonest, arrogant, and, in the end, anti-conservative.
let's see you try to address all the specific issues i outlined above. And yes, i realize that there is a stark difference between them in their rhetoric. I am talking about their actions and the results that they yield. Actually, congress and republican voters probably wouldnt support half the stuff Bush promotes if those exact same things were done by kerry.
If by "conservatives" you mean the extreme religious right who want to establish an American-Christian theocracy, then I say good riddance to bad rubbish. Pat Robertson and all of those kooks can go form their own damn party.
These parties aren't serious about being alternatives. Why are they squandering money on a losing campaign rather than funding accumulation of state legislature seats and local government seats, which cost a great deal less. With a base of smaller government positions, they would be in a position to fund raise more powerfully and actually have credentials.
As is, these guys are indulging their own egos in a fundamentally unethical way. They know they will not win, and they are taking donor money anyway, rather than using that money to party-build.
JMo, but you seem to want to wear a faux jackboot behind your neck 24/7 and walk down the runway proclaiming how opressed you are 24/7.
All too true,I fear,but the purists are blinkered and masochists to boot.They LOVE whingeing and whinings and EVERYONE on FR being miserabled.
You think the definition of a RINO is someone who doesn't blindly, completely support anyone with an 'R' next to their name?
That is not what a RINO is. The term RINO describes someone who belongs to the R party, but yet espouses and supports leftist/liberal agenda of the democrats/marxists/socialists.
I told you he doesn't suffer fools.
And Tancredo is the poster child of fools. I do have to give him credit for crawfishing faster than any other Congressman I ever seen when the little twit found out that the 5% remittance tax someone duped him into proposing was aimed specifically at the largest employer in his district.
Idiot, pure idiot.
Btw, Tom Tancredo and Tom McClintock support the reelection of Bush-Cheney.
>>> Jorge Bush
Watch it Wilbur. That's uncalled for.
I don't consider seriously those who basically are michael moore sock puppets.
Wail away like a two year old all you want.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.