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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

BRIEFING BY ARI FLEISCHER
PRESS SECRETARY

WHITE HOUSE

September 25, 2002

Excerpts



. . .

Q: We can go back to that in a minute. I have another question. Yesterday in the briefing, you said that the information you have has said al Qaeda is operating in Iraq. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld was asked about linkages between al Qaeda and Saddam Hussein this morning. He said very definitively that, yes, he believes there are. And then the President said, talking about al Qaeda and Saddam Hussein, the danger is that they work in concert. Is the President saying that they are working in concert, that there is a relationship? Do you have evidence that supports that?

MR. FLEISCHER: No, the President is saying that's the danger. The President has repeatedly said that the worst thing that could happen is for people -- the world's worst dictators with the world's worst weapons of mass destruction to work in concert with terrorists such as al Qaeda, who have shown an ability to attack the United States. And that's what the President has said.

Q: So why -- when Rumsfeld was saying, yes, there is a linkage between the two, what is he talking about?

MR. FLEISCHER: Clearly, al Qaeda is operating inside Iraq. And the point is, in the shadowy world of terrorism, sometimes there is no precise way to have definitive information until it is too late. And we've seen that in the past. And so the risk is that al Qaeda operating in Iraq does present a security threat, and it's cause for concern. And I think it's very understandably so.

If you're searching, Campbell, again, for the smoking gun, again I say what Secretary Rumsfeld said -- the problem with smoking guns is they only smoke after they're fired.

Q: I'm not looking for a smoking gun. I'm just trying to figure out how you make that conclusion, because the British, the Russians, people on the Hill that you all have briefed about all this stuff say that there isn't a linkage, that they don't believe that al Qaeda is there working in conjunction in any way with Saddam Hussein. And there is a mountain of comments, both public and private statements that Osama bin Laden has made about Saddam, calling him a bad Muslim, suggesting that there would be no way that the two would ever connect. So I just -- if there's something, if you have some evidence that supports this, I'm just wondering why --

MR. FLEISCHER: What supports what I just said is that the President fears that the two can get together. That's what the President has said, and that's one of the reasons that he feels so strongly about the importance of fighting the war on terror.

Q: So does Rumsfeld have some information that the President doesn't, that they are, in fact, working together now?

MR. FLEISCHER: Well, I'm going to take a little more detailed look at anything that you've got there. I haven't seen a verbatim quote, so I'll take a look at that.

Q: It seems that Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is ignoring the recently passed Security Council resolution, and he is maintaining his siege around Yasser Arafat's headquarters. Why does the President continue to support Israel, even though tacitly saying that he condemns Israel, but in short, on the bottom line, he continues to support Israel -- why does he continue to support him when Iraq is being blamed by the President for doing exactly the same thing, for violating the Security Council resolutions?

MR. FLEISCHER: I think you have to be very careful when you equate Iraq with any other nation, and say Israel and Iraq are the same, when they are not. If you look at Resolutions 242 and 338, Resolution 242 and 338 explicitly call for a political settlement, a political dialogue as the underpinning of all the resolutions that subsequently followed that refer back to 242 and 338. Not the case in Iraq. In Iraq's decade of defiance of the U.N. resolutions which explicitly called on Iraq not to have a political settlement with their weapons of mass destruction, but disarm and destroy them. You cannot equate the two.

The President does feel strongly, however, about the need for Israel to listen and to heed the call and to make certain that its efforts don't hurt the cause of reform in Palestinian Authority. The President has spoken out about that, directly in opposition to Israel on that matter.

. . .

Q: Senator Inouye and Senator Byrd also responded to these remarks today. Senator Inouye said he was saddened by them, and Senator Byrd said he was disgusted and accused the President of making a bumper-sticker slogan out of the war on Iraq. Did they misunderstand, as well, or is this political opportunism --

MR. FLEISCHER: Again, the President's remarks were not about the Democratic Senate, as people may have been led to believe. The President's remarks were not even about the war in Iraq. The President's remarks were about homeland security. So, again, the President urges everybody to take a deep breath and remember why we're here, and that's to work together.

Q: Could I follow, sir? Both of these men suggested -- Byrd said there are a lot of serious questions out there that haven't been answered. "We here in the Senate have an obligation to investigate those questions before we vote on the resolution." Inouye said just as much. He said it's American to question the President, it's American to raise these questions. Does the President think there's something wrong with the Senate asking questions about this policy?

MR. FLEISCHER: That's why the President invited leaders of the House and the Senate down to the White House in early September, as soon as the Senate returned from its recess, as soon as the House returned from its recess, to meet with them, to talk to them, to get their ideas and thoughts and to say that he was going to work with them on this. And the process has been a very productive one and the resolution is moving along and we'll see what the language says. But it's been a very collaborative process.

. . .


4 posted on 06/17/2004 3:03:41 PM PDT by Calpernia (When you bite the hand that feeds you, you eventually run out of food.)
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To: Calpernia

Thank you for posting this...The spin meisters are in full attack mode.


5 posted on 06/17/2004 3:15:30 PM PDT by MEG33 (John Kerry's been AWOL for two decades on issues of National Security)
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To: Calpernia

Excellent !!!

Thanks so much!


6 posted on 06/17/2004 3:19:17 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (The terrorists and their supporters declared war on the United States - and war is what they got!!!!)
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To: Calpernia

From below:

>>>>We know from credible sources that Osama Bin Laden was a frequent visitor to the Iraqi embassy in Khartoum when Bin Laden was a resident of the Sudanese capital until 1996. It is no coincidence that Khartoum is one of the Iraqi Intelligence Service’s largest foreign stations.

It has also been confirmed that the Iraqi ambassador in Turkey, Farouk Hijazi, traveled to Afghanistan and met Bin Laden in December 1998. It is revealing to note that prior to being appointed ambassador in Ankara, Hijazi was head of foreign operations for the Iraqi Intelligence Service. Incidentally, this same Hijazi, who was hurriedly pulled out of Ankara on September 29, 2001, has recently resurfaced as Iraq’s ambassador in Tunisia.

There have been several confirmed sightings of Islamic fundamentalists from Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states being trained in terror tactics at the Iraqi intelligence camp at Salman Pak, 20 miles south of Baghdad on the Tigris River. Thee former intelligence officers have reported that they were surprised to find non-Iraqi fundamentalists undergoing training at the facility. The training involved assassination, explosions, and hijacking. All three reported that there is a fuselage of an old Tupolev 154 airliner used for hijack training. This was later confirmed by satellite photographs.
<<<<<



PREPARED TESTIMONY BY

KHIDIR HAMZA

Senate Foreign Relations Committee

July 31, 2002

The Iraqi Threat

1- Failing to obtain concessions in return for allowing the inspectors back, the Iraqi government turned the argument around by claiming that the inspectors’ job is to disarm Iraq and leave it defenseless against an American strike. Since the inspectors are charged only with dismantling weapons of mass destruction and their facilities, this was an admission that Iraq may possess these weapons and also an implied threat that facing an invasion it might use them.

Iraq is currently the country with the most extensive experience in the use of chemical weapons (CW). Its extensive use of these weapons and biological toxins during the war with Iran and against its own Kurdish population provided the Iraqi government with a huge database of information about the effectiveness and strategy of use of each of these agents. The two tests of dirty bombs carried in Mohammediyat in 1988, though were inconclusive as to their effectiveness in a war setting, provided Iraq with extensive design and testing experience in this area, probably the only Middle East country to do so in the last two decades. This provides Iraq with another tool for possible use in a terrorism setting. The recent defector reports of purchases of Russian radioactive materials through an African country re-enforces Iraq’s intents in this direction.

It is understood that CBW use is mainly intended to create a terror situation in the targeted area. Any lethality that can be achieved using CBW can be surpassed by conventional means. But the effects are not the same. The Iranian attackers who showed no hesitancy in facing all the fire Iraq can muster were terrified of the limited CBW Iraq used at the time. The Iraqi port of al-Fao was occupied by Iranian forces that repelled many conventional attacks, but collapsed easily under the continuous flow of CW that was thrown at them in the closing days of the war with Iran. The same goes for the Kurds who fought with incredible bravery against the Iraqi armed forces but ran away in terror to Turkey and Iran when the Iraqi armed forces approached after the Gulf war fearing the use of CW after the Halbja massacre.

2- Iraq’s use of these weapons included also the threat of use to prevent an attack. Thus Saddam’s government firmly believe that it thwarted a second Israeli strike against its nuclear installations in 1990 when Saddam threatened to “burn half of Israel using the binary” (chemical weapon.) Thus a firm belief in the utility and effectiveness of these weapons by Saddam’s government emerged to present an option that the regime believe that it cannot survive without. The WMD option is firmly believed to be the reason behind not losing the war with Iran and preventing further strikes by Israel, and if the Americans have not interfered would have helped in quelling the Kurdish uprising.

3- Iraq built its own WMD technologies indigenously with some foreign help. Saddam understood that his main assets were not the equipment but his scientists and engineers. Thus Saddam’s government kept a tight lid on its science and engineering military teams at the same time it allowed UNSCOM and the IAEA to demolish most of its weapons production sites. That these science and engineering teams were capable was made manifestly clear in the aftermath of the Gulf war. Within less than a year these teams rebuilt successfully most of Iraq’s services infrastructure. These included rebuilding the destroyed control rooms of the power stations, the major telephone exchanges and oil refineries. Elated by their success Saddam kept these teams as contracting entities to the government for the civilian sector with a much reduced load and assigned them the rebuilding of the needed facilities for the WMD program. This provided them with a cover of civilian contractors with actual work to prove it but at the same time their WMD work continued unhindered. Thus the computer we used for the nuclear weapon design is now located in a hospital in Saddam city at the outskirts of Baghdad. If an inspector should arrive at the site he or she will be shown contracts for the civilian sector. The only indication that things are not what they seem is that it is headed by a man who worked extensively on the Iraqi NW design and that most of his staff are former workers in Group Four the Iraqi nuclear weapon team. Legally and according to the current mandate of UNMOVIC, the new UN inspection body, the burden is on the inspectors to prove otherwise. Thus Saddam has managed from the experience of the last eleven years to create the perfect cover. In effect it turns the whole Iraqi science and engineering enterprise into a giant weapon making body. And since they do actually accomplish civilian tasks, the economic burden on the government is minimized. Thus Saddam not only used the international markets to import dual use items under false pretenses, he created for the first time in the third world dual use engineering teams.

4- Unlike the UN, Saddam valued his people more than the equipment. And while initially the UN teams concentrated on destroying equipment and facilities Saddam kept tight control over his scientists and engineers. Thus defections were kept to a minimum. This was helped by well publicized cases of defectors seeking help and were turned down. One of them got killed in Jordan by Iraqi agents while waiting for the US Embassy to grant him an entry visa. Not a single high level defector left the regime since the botched defection of Hussein Kamel, Saddam’s son in law, to Jordan in 1995. This kept the information flow out of Iraq to a minimum increasing the opacity of the WMD programs.

5- German Intelligence (the BND) has been the only major Western intelligence service to provide assessments of the Iraqi WMD programs openly. Though flowed in some minor details it provides a broad outline of the clandestine Iraqi activities in the WMD and missiles areas. As a minimum it generated a large database on Iraqi purchases from Germany and other countries that when put together with defector and other information can present a credible assessment of the current and future threats of the Iraqi programs. These may be summarized as follows:

a) Iraq is well into CW production and may well be in the process of BW production.

b) With the more than 10 tons of uranium and more than one ton of slightly enriched uranium in its possession Iraq has enough to generate the needed bomb grade uranium for three nuclear weapons by 2005.

c) Iraq is using corporations in India and other countries to import the needed equipment for its programs, then channel them through countries like Malaysia for shipment to Iraq. Germany already blacklisted some of these corporations for violating the sanctions imposed on Iraq.

d) Iraq is importing directional control instruments for its missiles of much higher precision than those needed for the allowed 150km missiles under UN sanctions. Thus Iraq is gearing to extend the range of its missiles to easily reach Israel.

e) The type of equipment imported indicate that Iraq is in the process of creating its own foundation for the production of needed materials thus avoiding detection if these materials are on the watch list of the exporting countries. Following this logic Iraq is or will be able to produce its own growth media for the biological weapons program and many of precursors for its CW program. The same can be said for local uranium production from phosphates. This removes many limitations on production and allows Iraq to accelerate its output.

5- Iraq realized that CBWs are more instruments of terror than they are of war. A real deterrence is the nuclear weapon option. Realising that a few nuclear weapons are not a serious deterrence because of the need for testing, it configured its program to generate its own materials for the nuclear core. Thus the plan that was set in 1982 targeted a 100 kg (220 lb) of bomb grade uranium a year. This is equivalent to 6 implosion or two gun type bombs a year. With a worked out design for the implosion option Iraq planned on being a major power in the region through its nuclear arsenal. Thus under this program Iraq was not much interested in purchasing the materials needed for the nuclear core through its extensive black market network. However under threat the situation did change. After the invasion of Kuwait Iraq embarked on a crash program to make one nuclear bomb using the French supplied fuel at its disposal. This option, now declared by the Iraqi government was dropped only after it was made clear that the uranium extraction capabilities were not good enough to achieve enough materials for one bomb. Recent defections indicate that Iraq is seeking actively all kinds of nuclear materials. It is also active in seeking the needed components to accelerate its uranium enrichment program.

6-With the a workable design and most of the needed components for a nuclear weapon already tested and in working order, Iraq is in the final stages of putting together its enrichment program to enrich enough uranium for the final component needed in the nuclear core. Thus Iraq’s nuclear achievement when it happens, together with its history of use of its available WMD will turn it into a serious threat to US interests in the region. Serious punishment (regime change) will be largely discounted. Iraq’s posturing, aggressiveness and harassment of unfriendly regimes will increase considerably. The window of opportunity to abort this option before it happen is closing down possibly within the next two to three years, after that a change of regime will be a much costlier prospect.

7-The inspection regime in Iraq had a mixed history. The International Atomic energy Agency (IAEA), the UN body charged with ensuring that nuclear facilities are not used for nuclear weapons production failed completely in its task with regards to Iraq before the Gulf war. The IAEA remains basically a weak organization beset by its international composition and the multiple loyalties of its workers. Within its sphere it is quite successful in accounting for and keeping tab on the essential components of the nuclear fuel cycle and its utilization over the globe. But it has limited latitude with the states and works best in a cooperative and amiable environment. Against determined states such as Iraq it is at a great disadvantage. Thus it failed again after the Gulf war when it declared early that it took care of basically all of Iraq’s nuclear program. It took the defection of Kamel, Saddam’s son in law to force the Iraqi government to declare the actual scope of its nuclear weapons program and forced the inspectors to start all over again in unraveling what has not been declared before. Thus while it managed to dismantle a large part of the Iraqi nuclear program it was at a loss by the time the inspectors left in 1998 as to the whereabouts of many of the important figures in the program. The new Iraqi policy of giving up some of the equipment but keeping the working teams intact was beyond the inspectors mandate. There was nothing they could do to prevent the Iraqi teams from rebuilding what was destroyed.

Iraq is actually quite open about its intents and goals. It refused to promulgate laws that make it illegal for its citizens to work in the area of WMD as was required by UN resolutions. It also refuses to accept the limitations imposed by sanctions declaring them to be illegal. Thus as stated by the former Iraqi ambassador to the UN, Nizar Hamdoun, Iraq is not going to impose sanctions on itself. This is forced on Iraq and as such the Iraqi government is not bound by its terms. Policing what Iraq imports is a problem for the UN and not the Iraqi government.

8- If the inspectors go back now there is very little human intelligence that will help them locate the new weapons sites. Spread widely among the government infrastructure in smaller hard to detect units, the inspectors will have a hard time locating all the programs components. A recent defector with credible information asserted that all units are built with a backup. If one is detected or is in danger of discovery all activity is immediately transferred to the back-up facility.

9- The new UNMOVIC inspection body do not have the support and free hand UNSCOM enjoyed. With Russia and other states that favor removing sanctions keeping the pressure, the onus is now on the inspectors to prove that Iraq is in violation. Not finding a smoking gun after a series of inspections is all that the Russians and the French need to declare that the US has no case and sanctions must be lifted. The US case will be considerably weakened and more voices will rise against the US Iraqi policy as baseless. This is a danger that must be carefully examined before inspection terms are allowed back in possibly to divert an invasion.

10-The claim that the US needs a smoking gun to prove that Iraq is in violation of its commitments regarding WMD discounts all the past experience in dealing with Iraq. Many voices declared that Iraq was not pursuing nuclear weapons before the Gulf war. This included the IAEA that declared Iraq clean in many statements. This happened even after the German publication Der Spiegel reported Iraq’s successful attempts to acquire classified uranium centrifuge enrichment technology from Germany. However the US knew better and used the Gulf war setting as a way to dismantle Iraq’s nuclear weapons program. But the dismantling process ignored the knowledge base acquired over the years that can be used easily to rebuild what was destroyed. A similar insistence on proof before taking serious action will be allowing Saddam to achieve his goals unchallenged.

11- With no large easily distinguishable nuclear sites and little or no human intelligence it is difficult to see how any measure short of a regime change will be effective. Saddam is totally indifferent to the human suffering of his people, and with his threats of reprisals against the families of WMD workers has managed to stop defections among its personnel despite the fact that a large number of Iraqis from other walks of life managed to escape. With a Soviet style economy that is basically geared toward war and its requirements, Iraq is currently the only Arab state that all the Arab extremists look at as the future challenger to Israel and US interests in the region. Thus if Saddam makes it in the nuclear arena he will be the region’s undisputed leader in Arab eyes. It will then be much harder to agree on the needed concessions for a peace process and a viable peace will be impossible to achieve under any terms. Saddam has used and will continue to use the Palestinian issue to rally the Arabs around him as he did when he used the Arab leaders meeting in Baghdad to challenge the peace treaty of Egypt with Israel that president Sadat agreed to.

12- Limiting Iraq’s access to technology is bound to fail in the end. The US cannot police the transfer of technology in the age of the internet and the widening of the science base all over the globe. Perversely, limiting sales of high technology equipment created financial difficulties for many high tech companies and scientists and made them an easy target for countries like Iraq. Lawyer Michael Rietz who represented three of the main German exporters of technology and know-how to Iraq tell a sobering tale. One of his clients, Karl Schaab sold the blue prints for the uranium enrichment centrifuge to Iraq for a mere forty thousand dollars. He also provided more than a hundred classified reports in the deal. He provided 36 high tech carbon fiber rotors for the centrifuges for a million dollars. Iraq’s investment to buy technology this way was much cheaper than developing it themselves. Dietrich Hinze provided flow forming machinery to make missile shells and gave away half ownership of his company to Iraq all for less than 20 million dollars. He also taught the Iraqis how to use the equipment. Locally he was so much admired for bringing business to his small town in Germany that he was honored with a statue in a main location in town. All those represented by Rietz were more or less sentenced for time served and released though they all pleaded guilty. Actually according to Rietz, one of the men working for the German Federal export Agency, Dr Welzien, opened a consulting business charging very high rates to German companies for advising them on how to use loopholes in the German export laws to expedite making some questionable exports, and it is legal. With Europe no longer in accommodating mood Iraq shifted its purchasing bases to India and Malaysia among others. Thus technology transfer restrictions, which failed in the past to limit advances in the Soviet Union’s weapons programs are failing again in limiting access to weapons technology as was demonstrated by India, Pakistan and now Iraq and possibly Iran. Another failure for the policy of containment.

13- Iraq and terrorism

Saddam Hussein has a long history of involvement in international terrorism. From assassinations of Iraqis abroad in the seventies and eighties, to support for radical anti-western groups in the eighties and nineties, to links with Islamic fundamentalists today, his track record speaks for itself.

Always the opportunist, he has used the biannual Islamic Conferences held in Baghdad since the 1980s as a recruiting ground for Islamic radicals from around the Muslim world. A former Iraqi intelligence officer now in Europe has described how he would dress as a cleric and approach Islamists from key countries to put on the Iraqi payroll for ‘special operations’. He was tasked to recruit Pakistanis, Indonesians and Malaysians while other officers concentrated on Palestinians and Arabs.

We know from credible sources that Osama Bin Laden was a frequent visitor to the Iraqi embassy in Khartoum when Bin Laden was a resident of the Sudanese capital until 1996. It is no coincidence that Khartoum is one of the Iraqi Intelligence Service’s largest foreign stations.

It has also been confirmed that the Iraqi ambassador in Turkey, Farouk Hijazi, traveled to Afghanistan and met Bin Laden in December 1998. It is revealing to note that prior to being appointed ambassador in Ankara, Hijazi was head of foreign operations for the Iraqi Intelligence Service. Incidentally, this same Hijazi, who was hurriedly pulled out of Ankara on September 29, 2001, has recently resurfaced as Iraq’s ambassador in Tunisia.

There have been several confirmed sightings of Islamic fundamentalists from Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states being trained in terror tactics at the Iraqi intelligence camp at Salman Pak, 20 miles south of Baghdad on the Tigris River. Thee former intelligence officers have reported that they were surprised to find non-Iraqi fundamentalists undergoing training at the facility. The training involved assassination, explosions, and hijacking. All three reported that there is a fuselage of an old Tupolev 154 airliner used for hijack training. This was later confirmed by satellite photographs.

14-Iraq’s conventional military capability has been considerably degraded since the Gulf war. Part of the drive to build larger WMD stockpiles is to make up for this depletion in military capability. Iraq now has practically no airforce, a much degraded air defense system and practically no new tanks, heavy artillery or armored vehicles. What is left functioning from the Gulf war arsenal is basically in the hands of the Special Republican Guards and the rest of armed forces are basically armed with light weaponry. With a highly corrupt officers corps the Iraqi army suffers from a large number of absenteeism, poor or nonexistent medical care, pilfered rations and little or no pay to the conscripts. Pay and rations are usually split among the officers and party members. It is estimated that Iraq has no more than a quarter of the firepower it possessed at the onset of the Gulf war. With the original Baath party members mostly murdered or in jail, Saddam’s government now is purely a personal dictatorship of Saddam and his clan. The original rhetoric of the Baath party no longer carry any weight with the population. Thus the army that surrendered to the American forces in droves in Gulf war is now in an even worse shape and would regard an American invasion as a welcome liberation army. American inspectors and media personnel who visited Iraq were surprised by the friendliness and lack of rancor of the population toward Americans. This is in contrast to the image of the Americans as evildoers that Saddam was trying to project in all his speeches.

15- Iraq’s WMD are under the control of the Special Security Organization (SSO). This is the same group that are charged with Saddam’s Security. This feared and ruthless organization is mainly composed of conscripts from Saddam’s hometown and very loyal tribes in adjacent areas. They have an observer in all major military meetings and they are present at the headquarters of all division commanders and they report directly to Saddam’s younger son Qussey. Any operation to disrupt the central authority of the Iraqi command structure and specially the handling and deployment of weapons of mass destruction must target this organization. Precision bombing and strict enforcement of a no drive zones should eliminate most of if not all the dangers of Saddam possibly using his CBW. Past defections from this pampered group indicate that it is not as tightly controlled as was earlier thought and defection rate may increase considerably when faced with an imminent invasion.

16- Iraq is now in one of the lowest points in its history. Saddam managed to destroy its middle class and its hope in a viable future. Millions of Iraqis are believed to have left the country since the Gulf war taking with them most of its professional class. With no future to look forward to Iraqis will welcome an American invasion with open arms. With a long history in government and a large bureaucracy it will not revert to the situation in Afghanistan now. The Kurds promised to rejoin the rest of Iraq under a coalition government. And above all if a democracy is established and nurtured in Iraq it will be a turning point in the region’s history.


9 posted on 06/17/2004 3:25:47 PM PDT by Calpernia (When you bite the hand that feeds you, you eventually run out of food.)
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To: MadIvan

#4 is interesting..an old press briefing stating the President's views.


10 posted on 06/17/2004 3:52:44 PM PDT by MEG33 (John Kerry's been AWOL for two decades on issues of National Security)
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