Posted on 06/17/2004 10:29:41 AM PDT by LS
Rasmussen has Bush up 46% to Kerry's 45%, with Nader at 4%.
Bush Job approval is at 52%; GOP closing in the generic congressional, 40%-38%; Consumer sentiment up 4%; and Bush has been up 7 out of 8 days. I predicted the other day he had turned the corner and that he would start to move outside the MOE. A VERY good day for Kerry looks like it is about to drop off, unless I miscalculated. Some of you numbers people will figure it out instantly.
I hope Nader has a food taster.
I kind of wish Rasmussen would stop publishing his daily tracking poll as long as Bush v. Kerry remains within the margin of error. He could simply say, "No change from yesterday. We'll let you know when one of the candidates breaks out."
On the other hand, it appears that Kerry has maxed-out at around 46%. All the hate and vitriol that the Dems have spewed toward Bush has garnered them only 46%. Bush, on the other hand, has an approval rating above 50%, and it wasn't that long ago that he had the approval of over 60% of the voters. Bush, it seems, has a higher likelihood of increasing his numbers than Kerry. You mentioned a Bush turn-around and possible break-out; I think another way to look at the numbers is that Kerry is dead in the water, has maxed-out, and can only go down.
....Make that Kerry maxing out at 45%.
Very tight race, tighter than Hillary at a diner leaving a tip.
Yesterday we saw that Rasmussen polls 39% Democrat & 35% Republican. If the split should be 37% vs. 36% then Bush would be up by three percent more, which is where I feel that he is from other polls and trends.
I get the feeling this 9/11 Commission garbage is going to cause a slight dip in W's numbers. Hope I'm wrong, but I think we'll see a JFnK lead again soon.
These will probably be the highest numbers he has for a while.
-Michael Moore Fahrenheit 911 media orgasmfest
-DNC Convention
-June 30th holdover
-911 comission report
If he doesn't get much more than 5 points below Kerry's numbers, he's got it made.
Clarification: If Bush doesn't go much below -5 during July and August then he's got it made! His numbers will soar after the DNC convention.
"Very tight race, tighter than Hillary at a diner leaving a tip."
Thanks, now I have to clean all the coke off my monitor.
Generic congressional is rat plus 2. This is dead center. This number moves from GOP plus 4 to rat plus 6. In 94 people who understood this number knew what was coming when the last poll on this came out GOP plus 6.
The stupid clumsey LA times had the congressional generic at rats plus 19!!!!!!!
THAT IS WHAT STARTED people checking other numbers in it's report.
BTW we always lose in this measure. Rat pollster know its a lie but they just can't help themselves. We have not won that one since 1994 and held the congress ever since.
That was my interpretation: Kerry cannot get more than 45% of the vote, probably closer to 43%. The problem (and also good news) is that Nader gets 4%. I think Bush needs to get above 50% and 330 EVs to declare a "mandate."
Is this realistic? I don't think so nationally. I think it's 40/40/20.
If it happens, then he will exceed 45% and may actually win. However, I think it is equally likely that swing voters will be turned off when they learn what JFnK is really all about.
I read someone recently who said that because of the severe political divide in this country, a "landslide" should now be considered anything in the 53-55% range. (I know it's not the current conventional wisdom, but my gut tells me that when all is said and done, Bush will pull out a vote total between 55-and-60%. I believe in divine intervention. :-)
Why is it that they can't seem to poll an even split: 50-50 dems and republicans...is it because they don't wish to see the results? If they are polling more democrats than republicans and Bush is still ahead, then that means democrats are polling FOR Bush and this is BAD news for the Kerry folks!
It was the split in 2000 which, many believe, was an incredibly large turnout for Democrats.
Think about 1984 (the election, not the novel). Mondale was doing well. People wanted to vote for Reagan, but they needed reassured (in this case, based on age). He gave them reassurance with the second debate. That is happening with Bush. His approval is consistantly above 50%. Once people see him juxtaposed against Kerry, Bush will develop a solid lead. The VP debate may actually be a turning point, depending on who Kerry picks.
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