Posted on 06/15/2004 2:59:12 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
"Where are they going without ever knowing the way?" Asked the band Fastball in their hit "The Way." The same question could have been asked of the U.S. manned space program for the last several decades. Where it manifestly was not headed was to the stars -- or anywhere out of low earth orbit for that matter.
As President Bush pointed out in his January speech at NASA Headquarters, "In the past 30 years, no human being has… ventured farther upward into space than 386 miles." In that speech, he laid out a stunning new vision for space exploration, which has since been badly misunderestimated.
Maybe many pressmen were muddled by the model -- or the chemicals -- of the Apollo era, but even space enthusiasts (author included) missed the main point, focusing only on the president's plan to return to the moon and travel to Mars. Those programs are there, and they're important components. But as a roundtable with John Marburger, the President's science advisor and retired Rear Adm Craig Steidle, NASA's Associate Administrator for Exploration Systems made clear, the president's vision thing is a great deal grander than most have grasped.
"The objective is everything," said Mr. Marburger said with delighted emphasis -- the moon, Mars and all the rest of the things under -- or at least in the gravitational sway of -- the sun. According to his science advisor, the president has accepted the notion that eventually, humans will incorporate accessible space into their economic zone.
To go where no man has gone before (it had to come somewhere), the president envisions a sustained, multi-generational drive upwards and outwards, with ultimate destination unknown. Mr. Bush has repeatedly used the terms "sustained" and "step by step" in speeches and policy statements. In his January space speech, Mr. Bush announced his "new plan to explore space and extend a human presence across the solar system." A few breaths later he said, "We'll make steady progress -- one mission, one voyage, one landing at a time." The president's policy paper, "A Renewed Spirit of Discovery," declares that two of the primary objectives are, to "Extend human presence across the solar system," and "Implement a sustained and affordable human and robotic program to explore the solar system and beyond."
Fiscal sustainability is also a critical component. The president's people piqued pundits and policymakers a by pronouncing that they weren't sure what the final cost of the program would be, but they appear to have been being honest -- there's no way to know in 20 or 200 years. Still, costs will have to be controlled, since Cold-War competition can no longer serve as a catalyst for exploration. Instead of asking for a NASA budget spike (which Congress would spike), the administration is shooting for small, sustainable funding increases, with no slips and no skyrockets.
Robots are expected to play major roles, both as low-maintenance laborers and as surrogate surveyors. Mr. Steidle said he is also counting on the private sector for innovation. In April, he put out a formal request for information, asking companies for ideas about overcoming the first challenges ahead. About 15 trade studies are already underway, and many more will follow. To drive additional competition and innovation, NASA has set up a program of contests -- "Centennial Challenges" -- which will award cash prizes to those who overcome them.
In a sense, the president's vision marks the continuation of the Apollo missions, but there will be no more one- (or multiple Moon) shot wonders, no more marking time in low earth orbit. Instead, there will be a step-by-step move outwards. When humans reach the moon, they won't just grab a bite of green cheese and go. Instead, they'll survey, explore and begin building the infrastructure -- shelters, machinery, fuel and water depots -- for the next step outwards. They'll do the same when they reach Mars, the asteroid belt, the icy moons of Jupiter, and beyond.
On Wednesday, the President's Commission on Moon, Mars and Beyond, led by former U.S. Air Force Secretary Edward (Pete) Aldridge, will release its recommendations on how to implement that vision. It is expected to describe the major challenges NASA faces but not prescribe detailed solutions.
Will the spending to fulfill the vision be worth it? After all, many think that the billions literally burned as rocket fuel could serve some more significant social purpose. Against that, Mr. Marburger opined, "If we don't make some investment to see if [space exploration] works, 200 years from now we will still be wondering if it is feasible. We think it is a pretty good bet."
It is, for reasons both pragmatic and poetic. NASA is at a crossroads. At the end of the decade, the space shuttles will have to either be re-certified or retired. Going into the solar system will bring great wealth and human enrichment. The earth will eventually run out of resources; it will eventually be hit by a civilization-destroying asteroid; it will eventually be burned to a cinder by the sun. But space exploration is more than an escape strategy, more than an opportunity for economic gain. Space travel is also about the soul, about the aspiration of the human sprit. President Bush said, "We have undertaken space travel because the desire to explore and understand is a part of our character." He might have added, as Fastball did, "You can see their shadows wandering off somewhere/They won't make it home but they really don't care/They wanted the highway/They're happier there, today."
Charles Rousseaux is an editorial writer for The Washington Times and a frequent TCS contributor. He recently wrote for TCS about the builders of Iraq.
21 Jun is the first scheduled spaceflight. Can the second be 22 Jun or would it take longer to prepare the SpaceShipOne?
There's no current business case for it, though -- venture capitalists are not likely to invest the multi-billions necessary to start asteroid mining from scratch, in the vague hope that their grandkids will possibly see a profit sometime within the next 50-75 years. Asteroid mining becomes possible and attractive when there is a space infrastructure already in place, and not before.
Most definately.
We have to be polite and not say so outloud.
Yeah, where's Zephram (sp?) when you need him?
The US has already asserted sovereignty over all outer space, but they have failed to recognize private property rights there. Until private property rights are recognized in outer space, there will be no private investment in outer space resources. That is the true stopper, not lack of a business plan.
Bush said he would do something about private property in outer space. He has not. He must do this.
The vision presents the roadmap (so many haven't even bothered to read it)and it will take steady funding, not mega increases, to stay on that road. Building a spacefaring infrastructure is going to open it up all the way.
Other than the X-prize itself, Burt Rutan cannot make money on his SS-1. The "tourist" dollar will tap itself out pretty quickly, and there are a lot cheaper ways to do "useful" sub-orbital stuff.
And yes, I know the X-Prize is not an orbital shot. But I expect there will be an X2, and an X3. And at every stage, I imagine, there will be one or more Burt Rutans to take up the challenge.
There's the rub. Can there be an orbital X2? I really don't think his current design will carry over to one that can reach orbit, and survive re-entry multiple times -- there are some basic issues of scale and structure that will make the X2 far more complex and expensive than the SS-1. Would it be cost-effective to build and operate? Would it be reliable enough? Are there enough customers to support an X2-building company? These are real questions, and Rutan's design does not address them.
Agreed.
From reports, it sounds like private enterprise is the goal - leading to a vigorous space economy.
Learning how to live off planet will be the test. By mining and using resourses off-Earth, we will truly break free from the gravity well.
Only in support of NASA programs, not in private development of outer space resources.
Oh? Would the Russians, and now the Chinese, recognize that sovereignty? In addition, we're also signatories to numerous Space Treaties governing various space activities. The most relevant would be the AGREEMENT GOVERNING THE ACTIVITIES OF STATES ON THE MOON AND OTHER CELESTIAL BODIES (1979).
but they have failed to recognize private property rights there.
Well, to be quite honest, there's no pressing need to do this, because the likelihood of it being an issue within our lifetimes is slim.
Until private property rights are recognized in outer space, there will be no private investment in outer space resources.
That's only the final hurdle. The first hurdle is to find a use for outer space resources. They don't make economic sense unless there is a use for them in space.
That is the true stopper, not lack of a business plan.
Not even close. Private industry cannot hope to survive spending billions on something that has no potential for payback until decades later. IF we decide as a nation that space business is worthwhile, then the nation needs to build the necessary infrastructure. Private industry won't.
Of course. They have also asserted sovereignty of all outer space.
Private property will be worked out. I believe getting there first is a good start. We need to establish our free market system and ideology as the marker for others who follow.
Be careful to present your business plan to the right people. Don't waste your time with folks who have no intention of investing in your company.
-Jane Applegate
June 21 is not an qualifying X-Prize attempt, since SpaceShipOne will not be carrying three passengers or weight eqivalent to two passengers in addition to the pilot. The flight on June 21 appears to be a test run to the required altitude prior to making an official attempt.
Regarding turn-around time, the Scaled Composites FAQ says they intend to replace the fuel casing and the nozzle on the rocket engine between high-altitude flights. I don't know how long this could reasonably be expected to take--although some areonautical types around here might be able to make a good guess.
I won't be surprised if Scaled Composites takes the full two weeks between their two official X-Prize attempts.
Okay. They will be collecting records all the way.
Of course, I don't know whether or not an X2 goal would be achievable--but that would be the point of sponsering a prize. Since the money is only paid when the goal is achieved, the prize would only attract those willing to gamble that they can achieve it.
I assume that any X2 prize would be for a reusable, orbital vehical. I don't believe Rutan has said whether or not he would participate an an X2 endeavor--so we don't know he thinks it can be done.
Perhaps you are right, and an X2 objective would be out of the reach of private industry--but I expect we will see the X-Prize foundation put up some money to find out.
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