It's a tough call but he has a chance. The city of Seattle is a lost cause but the outlying areas of King County can swing Republican with the right ticket. We've got Bush/Nethercutt for Senate/Dino Rossi for Governor. Pretty darn good ticket. IF we get our voters in Eastern Washington out in force then he should be able to make it. They don't have to win King County, just get about 40 - 45%. George Nethercutt has a very good chance of knocking off Patty Murray - one of the most obnoxious and stupid Senators.
We need to do better then 40% in King County. We need at least 45%, and around 48% to really be safe.
That said, I think Bush can carry this state. For the first time in forever, the state party seems to have it's act in gear as far as organization and recruitment (minus finding a challenger for MY scumbag congressman Jay Inslee).
I'm excited about Rossi and McKenna, they are both excellent candidates, and will be formitable. I'm also very excited about Dave Reichert. He'll coast in the 8th IMHO, and will be a fast rising star. Mark my words: He will be our Governor or Senator one day.
But the one I am most excited about is Nethercutt. Nethercutt has assembled a crack team, and is a smart and relentless campaigner. He's clearly got the other Washington on board, and this race is the race I think we have the best shot at. I'd honestly put it at a straight toss up.