Posted on 06/11/2004 1:47:34 PM PDT by demlosers
Webster’s Dictionary defines denial as the “refusal to admit the truth or reality.” As the presidential election draws closer, denial is rampant among Republicans. Almost universally, they believe George W. Bush will be re-elected.
There is an addictive quality to this reaction. Republicans are not unlike alcoholics who deny they have a drinking problem despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary. Denial is a powerful mechanism, but as they say in AA meetings, it is time to accept that denial is not a river in Egypt.
By virtually every time-tested political model that predicts presidential outcomes, the verdict is clear: On his own, Bush can no longer win re-election. His only hope now is that Sen. John Kerry makes enough mistakes.
Snip...
An incumbent president’s job approval rating in a re-election year is seen by most presidential analysts and scholars as the most important indicator of re-election. The Gallup Organization, which has tracked presidential elections more than any other polling firm, points out that no president since World War II has been elected to a second term after falling below 50 percent approval at this point in an election year.
At the end of May, Bush’s job approval ratings, as measured by Gallup and large news outlets were:
Gallup: 46 percent approve; 51 percent disapprove
Newsweek: 42 percent approve; 52 percent disapprove
CBS News: 41 percent approve; 52 percent disapprove
Time/CNN: 46 percent approve; 49 percent disapprove
All of these ratings were the lowest of the Bush presidency — and the approval ratings recorded in May of an election year are the most crucial. Voters traditionally take an assessment of a sitting president five to six months before the election to determine if he deserves another term. By most accounts, the jury is in — and voters want Bush out.
snip...
This recovery has been unique. Voters are used to a return to their old jobs and standard of living after a recession. But this time, many jobs have simply disappeared, replaced with lower-paying jobs with less benefits.
With his dismal job approval and an economy not yet embraced by the public, Bush will defy all historical precedent if he wins re-election.
end snip...
(Robert G. Beckel’s e-mail address is rgbeckel@earthlink.net)
(Excerpt) Read more at oscnewsgazette.com ...
Why, is Beckel collecting dossiers on presidential electors again?
HAHAHAHAHA!!!
Thanks for the good laugh after this morning's tears!
Bob Beckel is scum.
Not that Bob Beckel isn't
It's always exactly like Rush says, listen and read what liberals say about conservatives and they are telling you about themselves.
MKM
He's ignoring the fact that the public's pretty much tuned out the campaign since Kerry clinched the nomination in March.
Oh yeah, Kerry's going to win because he's leading some opinion polls in the summer. Ask President Dukakis sometime about how well that works.
To quote a line from NASCAR, "When the green flag drops, the bulls**t stops." And that green flag doesn't drop until November 2nd.
OK Bob, Bush will jost stop running now. Is it me or am I seeing more and more of these articles. The Democrats kind of remind me of Red Sox fans (no offense Red Sox fans, just using you for an analogy). They want the season to end in April or May when the Sox are in first. The left wants the election to end here and now, when the news has been the worst for Bush. Same with the Media, they want it to end here, hence why they keep recycling the same stories. . there just ain't enough bad news for Bush out there, so they are inventing it.
Beckel was gracious and funny on Fox this afternoon, reminiscing about his difficulties managing presidential campaigns against RR. Mondale, under his guidance, won one state. Beckel said, for instance, he'd gotten up early one morning, turned on the TV and came upon what he assumed was a terrific ad for the Olympics...a gorgeous country scene, two farmers leaning on a fence, looking off down this road where flashing lights indicate that a procession of some sort is approaching. It was the torchbearer for the Olympics, but at end, a voice said, "It's morning again in America. Vote for Ronald Reagan for President." Beckel said he threw his hands up and went back to bed. How could you beat Reagan? It was impossible.
Oh, just more of the same we get to see every 4 years, like this one:
Beckel was on Cavuto today. For the 1st time in 25 years, I herd him speak the truth: that campaigning against Reagan was like going up against the Nimitz in a rowboat. When asked which state they won, he said:"We didn't win any states. We borrowed a couple of votes from Minnesota"
Now, if anyone remembers ol' Bob back in the day, he was his usual lying self and Mondull was going to be a slam dunk.
He is a hardball operator, a millionaire populist and he shocked me today because I would have bet he wouldn't recognize truth if it bit him in the butt. He is right up there w/Carville and Begala. Everytime I see him, my stomach churns.
I know it's only one day, and I know the attacks based on manufacutured scandals will start up again tomorrow. I also know many Americans can be easily propagandized, thus pushing the President's numbers down. But for today, Rasmussen has Bush's economic numbers moving up slowly but surely, and Bush is ahead of Kerry in the tracking poll by three points .
History also says : you can't beat somebody with nobody.
lurch is an empty suit nonody who has no issue on which to beat W.
There they go again. :)
Misunderestimating GW Bush...
Ewwww Bob Beckel........I feel the need to shower.
However, when disapproval rises because an abuse scandal is labeled "torture" on the front page of the Times every day for a month, that can become overdone and be history in short order. What's weighing Bush down is Iraq, and unlike jobs and the economy (which are both coming back but not fast enough that the mainstream media will be forced to report on it in a proper light), things will turn around pretty quickly.
Kerry has nothing to offer. You can't beat something with nothing. (Another old adage.) And the issues that he's had have been taken away.
TS
Ding ding ding--We have a winner!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.