Posted on 06/10/2004 12:44:58 PM PDT by Indy Pendance
PHILADELPHIA - - This is the last thing that John Kerry needed - a full week of Ronald Reagan hagiography, a 24/7 media festival featuring various Reagan alumni telling Americans how Reagan conservatism made the nation great again.
And, potentially, that's a great subliminal advertisement for President Bush, who has long portrayed himself as the heir to Reagan's legacy. Bush can buttress his credentials merely by delivering the eulogy Friday; all Kerry can do is sit in the crowd and cede the spotlight.
Maybe Democrats can find a way to suggest that Bush is no Ronald Reagan, that Bush isn't fit to fill the man's shoes - indeed, that Democratic strategy is slowly beginning to emerge - but, for now at least, the coverage is All Gipper, All the Time.
Kerry has been blindsided by a rare event. As presidential historian Allan Lichtman said Tuesday: "It is extraordinary to have one of the great figures in American history die in the midst of a heated, closely contested presidential campaign. That has not happened in modern times, and it has significant implications for the campaign itself."
In fact, Reagan's long goodbye is virtually unprecedented. Former President Herbert Hoover died in 1964, two weeks before the Lyndon Johnson-Barry Goldwater election, but LBJ liberalism was at its apogee and Hoover was seen as the discredited steward of the Great Depression. Former President Woodrow Wilson died early in the 1924 campaign, but his internationalist legacy was out of fashion and the isolationist Republicans won easily.
The Reagan shadow, by contrast, is big enough to put Kerry in the dark, at least in the short run - and give Bush a welcome break from all the embarrassing events that have bedeviled his presidency over the last two months. It would be no surprise if Bush gets some kind of "nostalgia bounce" in the polls released next week.
Maybe the Democrats are needlessly frustrated; Kerry would have been overshadowed by Bush this week, anyway - with Bush bestriding the world stage, first at the D-Day ceremonies, then at the G-8 summit.
Still, as one national Democrat lamented privately Tuesday, Reagan trumps everything: "You turn on the network news this morning, and suddenly it's not `More deaths in Iraq' or `The latest on the prison-abuse scandal' anymore. TV does emotion well, and the death of a popular president is emotional. That's the story line. We can't compete with that."
There's nothing they can do, except stew. They can't publicly remind people of the downside of the Reagan years - the Iran-Contra scandal, ballooning budget deficits, his refusal to acknowledge the AIDS epidemic until 1987 - because independent voters might view that as inappropriate. And they can't simply ignore Reagan's passing and forge ahead with Kerry's new economic message (the original plan for this week), because - bad taste aside - no one would pay attention.
So they put the message on ice, and shelved two multimillion-dollar Kerry fund-raisers - telling the 7,000 expected attendees and performing celebrities, in a barrage of e-mail messages, that maybe they'll find a way to reschedule after the official mourning period has passed.
It's likely, however, that the Republicans will find ways to extend the mourning - by spotlighting Reagan, late this summer, at the national convention in New York. As Lichtman said, "Homages to the `Reagan conservative heritage' could easily benefit Bush," by suggesting to TV viewers that Bush, despite his controversial record, has a touch of the Reagan aura.
Republicans know they must be careful. As several said privately Tuesday, they don't want to turn Reagan's death into a partisan crusade, and risk voter backlash. Democrats learned that lesson in Minnesota, when Sen. Paul Wellstone died during his 2002 re-election campaign; a memorial event turned into a raucous rally, and some Minnesotans registered their distaste by helping to elect the Republican candidate.
But Reagan nostalgia is still likely to be a main bill of fare at the GOP convention because such outpourings would be a bonding experience for the restive conservatives in the party base.
As Democratic strategist Donna Brazile noted during a Philadelphia visit Tuesday, some GOP activists have been questioning Bush's conservative credentials (grousing, for example, about his expensive new Medicare benefit). But a Reagan homage, she said, "will make them all remember why they are Republicans."
Nevertheless, some Democrats insist Kerry can still benefit from Reagan nostalgia in the long run. They argue that Bush simply doesn't measure up to Reagan, that Reagan's big shadow makes Bush look small and that, as a result, Kerry will draw swing voters who want a more substantive person to fill the office.
In the words of Democratic strategist Jenny Backus: "Reagan's death and funeral are a celebration of the institution of the presidency. It's a reminder of how important the presidency is - and the importance of having a strong president with a global vision" who can work with other nations.
In the last few days, for example, various Democratic think tanks have been cranking out "talking points" for the party - contending, for example, that Reagan (unlike Bush) worked closely with European allies and that Reagan (unlike Bush) confessed error, declaring, after a truck bomb killed 241 Marines in Lebanon, that "if there is to be blame ... it properly rests here in this office and with this president. I accept responsibility for the bad as well as the good."
These Democrats are praising Reagan's political flexibility (he raised taxes sometimes, and signed a liberal abortion law as governor), thereby implying that Bush is too rigid to wear the Gipper's crown. And they are praising Reagan's civility, at Bush's expense; the Democratic Leadership Council says Reagan "never sought to demonize his political opponents, and never questioned their patriotism or sincerity."
Lichtman, the presidential historian, is not impressed. The bottom line, he said, "is that Bush has had two hellacious months, and he's still roughly even with Kerry. And now Republicans get to celebrate Reagan at their convention and link him with Bush. All the Democrats can do is carp about it and say, `Yes, but.' Which position would you rather be in?"
An indirect admission they are hoping for as much death as possible in order to damage Bush and help Kerry. Sick.
"The dems are going to try to politicize that Bush is not Reagan"
You know, I expect that...but I can't figure out how that benefits Kerry! I mean, Kerry's sure as hell no Reagan.
It's like finding out the store's out of your favorite ice cream so you decide to buy an enema instead.
What a joke. Even Democrats can't get excited over Kerry. The idea that Kerry can attract Reagan fans is ridiculous.
Yep. It's like here in New York, where the city was considered ungovernable until Guiliani came along.
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