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Posted on 06/09/2004 11:32:08 AM PDT by Constitution Day
Six vie to challenge Easley
Candidates try to tone image, hone message
Are Republicans tired of Richard Vinroot?
Is Bill Cobey too strident on social issues?
Does Patrick Ballantine have what it takes to govern?
And, most important of all: Which GOP candidate for governor has the best chance of defeating Gov. Mike Easley this fall?
The six Republican primary candidates have broadly similar platforms. All say they would deliver lower taxes, smaller government, less regulation and more jobs to North Carolina.
But all are working hard to distinguish themselves. The goal is to appeal to primary voters July 20 as the best nominee to face Easley -- a resilient incumbent with a formidable advantage in money and name recognition.
"I wouldn't say I look forward to facing" the other Republicans, whom he considers his friends, Cobey said. "But this isn't about friendship. It's about winning."
Polls have shown since early in the year that Vinroot, Cobey and Ballantine have an advantage over the others in the GOP field. Many expect two of the three to end up in a runoff Aug. 17.
Vinroot, a former Charlotte mayor, has run for governor twice. That gives him valuable name recognition.
Cobey served in Congress and, more recently, as chairman of the state Republican Party.
And Ballantine was a state senator for 10 years until he stepped down in April to concentrate on this campaign.
The other candidates are Dan Barrett, a lawyer and Davie County commissioner; George Little, an insurance broker from Southern Pines; and Fern Shubert, an accountant and state senator from Union County. None has registered strongly with voters in polls, and none has raised much money.
But the three leading candidates have hurdles to leap, too.
Vinroot tries again
Vinroot, 63, has a commanding presence on television and in person. A Vietnam veteran, Sunday school teacher, Morehead scholar and basketball player under coaching legend Dean Smith, the 6-foot-7-inch Vinroot has the resume and demeanor of a natural leader.
Shooting issue spots at WRAL-TV in Raleigh last week, Vinroot was relaxed and read his lines with energy and emotion. He spoke of lowering the corporate income tax, eliminating waste in government and stopping illegal immigration.
"I led my city out of recession by holding the line on taxes and cutting waste," Vinroot says in one spot. "As a result, we created 30,000 new jobs. That's what I want to do for North Carolina."
Vinroot was a popular mayor. But he has lost twice in gubernatorial races; Easley beat him 52 percent to 46 percent four years ago. That makes some Republicans wonder whether he can ever win. Of the three leading candidates, Vinroot has struggled the most to raise money.
But he rejects suggestions that the voters are tired of him. His experience as a mayor -- and on the gubernatorial campaign trail -- give him an edge over Ballantine and Cobey, he said.
"They're both good guys," Vinroot said. "Patrick's a nice young man. He probably has more pizzazz, but not as much substance as Bill. And Bill is the reverse."
Still, such is the antipathy to another Vinroot-Easley matchup that Cobey felt compelled last year to resign as party chairman and join the race.
"I didn't want to be chairman of the party when we lost the governorship again," Cobey said.
Cobey stays right
Cobey, meanwhile, bears both the advantage and the baggage of a long history of conservatism.
He received the endorsement of former U.S. Sen. Jesse Helms, and he is promoting ideas such as a constitutional ban on same-sex marriage, further limits on abortion and a new office of faith-based initiatives that would ensure that government grants and buildings are available to churches, charities and other religious-based groups.
Two weeks ago, Cobey traveled to Winston-Salem to greet attendees at the convention of a state homeschooling association. The gathering, which included many evangelical Christians, was an ideal chance for Cobey to hunt for votes.
Flanked by supporters in red shirts bearing his name, Cobey stood at the bottom of an escalator at Benton Convention Center, proclaiming himself the conservative candidate of choice to all who would listen.
"He doesn't waver, and he's a highly conservative Christian," said Pamela Baylock, 43, of Raleigh, who homeschools her three children.
Yet the very policy stands that attract Republican loyalists could hurt him in the general election. North Carolina voters have a history of electing moderates as governors.
A former UNC-Chapel Hill athletics director, Cobey, 65, also is less known than Vinroot and less dynamic than some of his opponents. He speaks softly, even stiffly. That would hurt him against Easley, who can be masterful in crowds, in speeches and on TV.
Ballantine aims high
Ballantine, a 39-year-old lawyer from Wilmington with an even younger-looking face, is described by his supporters as a rising star.
The GOP leader in the state Senate until he stepped down in April, Ballantine touts both his legislative experience and his youth as top qualities.
"They're all nice guys," Ballantine said of his opponents. "I like them a lot. But one was mayor of Charlotte eight years ago. One was in Congress 20 years ago. And one worked for [former Gov.] Jim Holshouser 30 years ago. I represent a new generation of leadership."
Ballantine shares many views with his Republican rivals: Lower the corporate income tax, cut the top bracket of the personal income tax, remove burdensome regulations from businesses and eliminate waste in government.
And he can provide details when he speaks of the state budget, having spent 10 years scrutinizing the spending plans of Democratic majorities in the legislature. Among other things, Ballantine wants to eliminate vacant positions, cut spending on Medicaid -- the government health-care program for the poor -- and reduce the state's real estate holdings.
"I know what programs work; I know what programs don't work," he said. "I know what departments need to be consolidated."
Still, Ballantine's campaign has stumbled here and there, leading detractors to wonder whether he is ready for the statewide stage.
Ballantine switched campaign managers in April. And although he has raised more money than any other Republican, he has spent much of it on an unusual advertising campaign featuring his 4-year-old daughter and ethereal backdrops. According to some recent polls, the ads have done little to boost Ballantine's standing.
Seeking traction
The other three candidates -- Barrett, Little and Shubert -- are campaigning hard as well. But all show single-digit support in recent polls, leaving them a long way to catch up by July 20. None has raised significant money.
Little, a 30-year party activist who served in the Holshouser administration, has a long history of raising money for Republicans, including a close friend, former Gov. Jim Martin. But Little had raised only $100,000 in donations by March 31 -- filling his campaign chest instead with $900,000 in loans to himself.
Little, 62, also has a long history of activism with the community college system and still serves on the board of his local campus. He views his knowledge of the system and its role as an economic development engine, particularly to train laid-off workers, as a key campaign asset.
"We've got to expand community college programs so there will be the training programs so these people can go back to the classroom and get the training to get new jobs," Little said.
Barrett, 45, a supporter of lower taxes and fewer regulations, is walking across North Carolina to meet voters, a press-the-flesh enterprise that will last into July.
Barrett's message is similar to the others', except for one noteworthy distinction: As a county commissioner, he believes Easley mistreated local governments by withholding state aid two years ago to balance the budget. Barrett also wants to reduce Medicaid spending, and he believes more emphasis should be placed on building rural infrastructure, particularly access to health care.
"That really diverts resources to economic infrastructure if you're having to spend more and more money each year on Medicaid," Barrett said.
Shubert, 56, is talking of waste she sees in government, her view that public schools neglect the basics and her belief that North Carolina is too welcoming to illegal immigrants.
Like most of her Republican opponents, Shubert is opposed to many of the targeted incentive programs that government uses to lure new businesses to the state. Instead, she favors granting incentives to all -- in the form of lower corporate and individual income tax rates.
"The reason rural North Carolina is dying is that we are sucking every dime of money out with too-high tax rates, and then the people in Raleigh grant special breaks to their special friends, who tend to be the big boys settling in the big cities," she said.
Is Easley beatable?
Vinroot -- with 29 percent of support among likely primary voters in a recent poll conducted for WRAL-TV -- is by even his opponents' accounts the man to beat.
Cobey said he views the primary as a battle between himself and Ballantine to come in second to Vinroot -- and to force a runoff by blocking Vinroot from reaching the more than 40 percent required for an outright win.
In a runoff, attracting mostly die-hard Republican voters, Vinroot's advantage could disappear. Vinroot rejects that theory; Cobey and Ballantine are counting on it.
All this still leaves the question of November, when the Republican nominee must do battle with Easley. North Carolina hasn't put a Republican in the governor's mansion since Martin, in 1988.
If there's a runoff, the GOP nominee will have even less time -- and less money.
The latest reports show that Easley had raised $3.8 million by the end of March; the closest Republican, Ballantine, had $1.6 million.
But Easley is not as strong as former Gov. Jim Hunt was at this time eight years ago, when Hunt sought a fourth term. Hunt had raised $5.8 million, and more than two-thirds of voters approved of the job he was doing. Easley's most recent approval rating was 48 percent, in the WRAL poll.
Easley supporters say those numbers are more than respectable for a governor who has steered the state through three years of budget shortfalls and the worst recession since the Great Depression. And now, with the economy bouncing back, the governor is getting plenty of positive exposure cutting ribbons and announcing new jobs.
Still, beating Easley is possible, all the Republicans say. And that is their ultimate goal.
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CD
I'm about 99% sure that someone on my county GOP ex-comm. put me on Little's fundraising mailing list.
Ticked me off, big time.
I live in NC and I just do not know what to make of this race. On paper the incumbent Govenror should be in more trouble than he is, but for what ever reason serious opposition is not materializing, and party infingting is hampering the GOP efforts. Still this race is not over so maybe the nominee can win, but if I were to place bets it would be on Easley to win.
They were at one time, but I think Little is being quiet about it now, Little is married to Ex State Sen Tina Little.
Vinroot, a former Charlotte mayor, has run for governor twice. That gives him valuable name recognition.
Yeah, name recognition as a LOSER!!!
Easley's most recent approval rating was 48 percent, in the WRAL poll. Hard to believe that the voters in this state can be this stupid, but they are. They keep voting for these scummy Dem governors time and time again yet vote Rep for President.
MKM
Regards, Ivan
Try Hickory sometime I think they have as many Rino's as Southern Pines. However Southern Pines is a retirement community which caters to old rich yankess who have come down here. These are the Rino voters and the electorate responds to them.
I live in NC, too, and fear you may be right. I am not moved by any of the current crop of candidates, even though my 12 year old nephew would make a better governor than the current occupant. Vinroot has proven he can't win and I don't think he would against Tax Hike Mike again this year. Cobey is the strongest conservative of the field, but seems almost demure at times. I think Mikey would eat him alive in a debate.
As for the rest, only Ballentine has a legitimate shot, IMHO. I feel he may not be quite ready yet, but, regardless, there is not a chance in hell that I will vote for Tax Hike Mike, even if he were running against a cowpatty from the NCSU vet school pastures.
Sad to say, but I agree. I swear, it just doesn't compute!
Where in NC are you? Want me to add you to the NC ping list?
CD
I can't recall where I recently read the fundraising levels for all candidates, but Vinroot had raised a paltry amount compared to the others.
That would tell me that GOPers are indeed sick of him.
CD
sure, I live in Hickory now but I grew up in Greenville, I was born in Gastonia.
CD
My wife used to work in Tarboro she was the head teller at the State Employees Credit Union
She was there from 1997-1999.
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