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Bush's Good Week (Bush likely winner in Nov. - James J. Zogby)
Al-Jazeerah ^ | June 8, 2004 | James J. Zogby

Posted on 06/08/2004 9:58:02 AM PDT by veronica

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To: veronica
In their work for Al-Jazeerah and Abu Dhabi TV maybe Jim and John could share a penname.

Abu Zogby would work.

41 posted on 06/08/2004 10:27:38 AM PDT by SJackson (America...thru dissent and protest lost the ability to mobilize a will to win, Col Bui Tin, PAVN)
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To: veronica; RetiredArmy

different Zogby...the Pollsters brother. This guy runs some Arab PR group.


42 posted on 06/08/2004 10:31:36 AM PDT by Cousin Eddie
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To: southernnorthcarolina

What does the third one mean?..I've read it several times..it's not making sense..


43 posted on 06/08/2004 10:33:09 AM PDT by ken5050
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To: Phantom Lord; Howlin; Miss Marple; hchutch
Yep the pollster [John] had the following to say at a briefing of the Free Congress Foundation according to an article by Paul Weyrich on 5/4/04

Kerry's Election to lose

But it was pollster John Zogby who gave the most intriguing briefing. Zogby has to be taken seriously because he got it right when almost all the pollsters had it wrong in 2000. He also caught the slight tilt toward the Republicans on the eve of the 2002 elections.

What he told the group upset most of them -- but his message came through loud and clear. While most pollsters view this election as Bush's to lose, he believes this election is Kerry's to lose.

He said that usually at this time of year, 20-25% of the electorate is undecided, but this year there only 5% of the electorate is undecided. Finding such people when polling is becoming exceedingly difficult, he told us. Moreover, the soft vote, that is the people who MIGHT be persuaded to vote for the other guy, is only 10% -- a historic low.


44 posted on 06/08/2004 10:33:57 AM PDT by deport
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To: southernnorthcarolina
Zogby will be able to claim he was right no matter what the outcome is.

But we will be able to claim Zogby was left no matter what the outcome is.

45 posted on 06/08/2004 10:35:29 AM PDT by hflynn
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To: ken5050
What does the third one mean?..

The guy running for President belongs to the same Party ar the guy who was just President. In this case, theyre the same guy.. Get it?

46 posted on 06/08/2004 10:38:17 AM PDT by Nonstatist
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To: veronica

BOY! The Rats are suffering from the FLIP FLOP Plague!! Didn't Zogmbie call it for sKERRY not long ago?? RATS=Flippers!!

PLAGUE: 1 a : a disastrous evil or affliction : CALAMITY b : a destructively numerous influx2 a : an epidemic
disease causing a high rate of mortality :


47 posted on 06/08/2004 10:38:39 AM PDT by RoseofTexas
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To: deport
only 5% of the electorate is undecided

Its higher than that. Most polls show 10-15 % aamong likely voters. I suspect theres a bit more float than he thinks..

48 posted on 06/08/2004 10:40:41 AM PDT by Nonstatist
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To: Nonstatist

OK...it's a more "general" list....thanks...


49 posted on 06/08/2004 10:42:21 AM PDT by ken5050
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To: True Capitalist

Yes. John and James Zogby are brothers and neither one should be trusted.


50 posted on 06/08/2004 10:42:31 AM PDT by Darlin' ("I will not forget this wound to my country." President George W Bush, 20 Sept 2001)
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To: veronica

BUMP!


51 posted on 06/08/2004 10:42:48 AM PDT by jmstein7 (Real Men Don't Need Chunks of Government Metal on Their Chests to be Heroes)
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To: veronica

Zogby is actually willing to write for Al-Jazeerah? That's the surest sign of a scumbag I can think of.


52 posted on 06/08/2004 10:43:39 AM PDT by atomicpossum (I give up! Entropy, you win!)
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To: veronica
Did W give some aid to the PLO? What's up w/Zogby??

Pray for W and Our Magnificent Troops

53 posted on 06/08/2004 10:44:05 AM PDT by bray (The war is going far better than PravdABCBS wants you to know!!!!)
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To: RetiredArmy
"WAIT A MINUTE HERE!!!! Didn't the Zog just say a week or so ago, Flip Kerry in a LANDSLIDE??? What am I missing here?"

I can't trust Zogby anymore. In 2000 election, he had al bore winning in staggering numbers.

54 posted on 06/08/2004 10:44:14 AM PDT by the Deejay
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To: RetiredArmy

That's what I thought... then I read at the end that the person writing this was the Arab institute Zogby, not the pollster... nuch to my surprise. It was his brother, the pollster who had said that.


55 posted on 06/08/2004 10:59:39 AM PDT by dangus
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To: RetiredArmy
Zogby's strategy becomes clear:

1. Tell the American public that Bush will loose - demoralize Republicans and depress their voter turnout.

2. Tell the Arabs that Bush is likely to win; increasing the pressure to commit more violence in Iraq and throughout the region to make it look like America has totally lost control of the situation.

Remember, Zogby is an Arab

56 posted on 06/08/2004 11:01:02 AM PDT by HardStarboard ( Wesley...gone. Hillary......not gone enough!)
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To: HardStarboard

I wonder if the House of Saud owns Zogby like it does the rest of liberal US media.


57 posted on 06/08/2004 11:06:58 AM PDT by txhurl
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To: Howlin
Yeah, but, Howlin, it means there IS a parade to get in front of.

Schroeder AND Fischer said positive things about the USA at the G8, quashing attempts to put forward a resolution against our actions in Iraq. Fischer praised our process in dealing w/Abu Ghraib as open and transparent and a quick response (paraphrase). Chirac evidently sees no profit in killing the new Iraq resolution (I'll believe that when I see it, but even if France abstains, that means it will pass).

The Iraqi transitional government members (2 of them) thanked the US publicly and have stated our military help is needed for the foreseeable future.

The internals of even the polls showing Kerry ahead, show important subsets (vets) going for Dubya.

The turnout for Reagan is bound to include some people who can make the connection that the press, the EU and the Dems were wrong about Reagan. Since the complaints and smears against Reagan are the same as those against Bush, this is going to make the Dem negative blitz even a tougher sell.

According to Rasmussen, only 28% think we are still in recession. The market has rallied. Gas is inching downward. There are jobs available. Even w/a 25pt increase, rates are still historically low. There is enough inflation to bring bonds back to being a safe harbor and not enough to sink the economy.

54% still think the war was the right action. The troops think so, too.

I think it is going to take the proverbial *dead girl/live boy* scenario to keep us from winning this election.

Not that I intend to let defeat happen, if I can help it, nor should we be euphoric. But right now, the signs are in our favor.
58 posted on 06/08/2004 11:08:03 AM PDT by reformedliberal (Proud Bush-Cheney04 volunteer)
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To: reformedliberal

According to Rasmussen, only 28% think we are still in recession. The market has rallied. Gas is inching downward.



I think some of those thinking recession are really using the gasoline prices as their indicator rather than economic data.... So as gasoline prices decline their perception of it being a recession will decline also. jmo.


59 posted on 06/08/2004 11:12:27 AM PDT by deport
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To: Phantom Lord
James and his group (Arab-American yada yada) was a BIG clintoon supporter.

James and John are brothers, John is the pollster.

I saw a "non-political", "technical" interview of John on C-Span a year or so ago and I was startled to hear John make and amazing admission...polling is getting to be so unreliable as to almost be useless.

Reasons he cited were, Caller ID (people don't answer the calls), new phone systems (such as cable phone where you can have any area code you choose), Cell phones as the only phone (once again different area codes and no answers due to the "minutes" issue) and people just refusing to participate (folks used to be thrilled to do it), amoung others.

Bottom line is the pollsters can't be sure that they have a statistically valid sample.

My personal addition is in a Presidential election a national poll is meaningless...President Reagan won 50.3% of the vote but won 45 states in his first election (that's 90% of the states). I forget what the electoral vote was but it seems that President Reagan got about 80% of those. I'm not a bit worried, I wouldn't be surprised if Kerry won as few as 3 states; CA, MA and NY...W lost those three in 2000 and Kerry might carry the popular vote.

60 posted on 06/08/2004 11:17:09 AM PDT by Positive
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