Policy Memo: The Economy is Growing

George W. Bush ^ | June 04, 2004

[RWR8189]

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President George W. Bush has provided steady leadership in the face of remarkable change. The President’s positive and ambitious agenda has made our nation safer, stronger and better.
The past three and a half years have tested our nation. The American people have responded with strength, optimism and resolve to grow the economy, strengthen our communities, and protect our nation from the threat of global terror.

America’s economy is strong and growing stronger. We have overcome the triple shock of terrorist attacks, corporate scandals, and recession. We have overcome the challenges of being a nation at war. Recent economic growth is a powerful confirmation that the President’s pro-growth economic policies are working. The tax relief proposed and signed into law by President Bush was the right action at the right time – it has reinvigorated the U.S. economy and is driving job creation.

The economy is robust

• The economy grew 4.4% in the first quarter of 2004 -- the economy has grown for 10 consecutive quarters. The last four quarters have been the fastest in nearly 20 years. (Source: Gross Domestic Product, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 5/25/04)

Job creation is surging

• The economy created 248,000 payroll jobs in May – 1.4 million payroll jobs have now been added in the past nine months. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 6/4/04)
• Since January, the economy has added jobs in every major sector. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 6/4/04)
• The unemployment rate was 5.6% in May – down from last year’s 6.3% peak -- and is below the average for the 1990s, 1980s and the 1970s. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 6/4/04)
• Net new manufacturing jobs have increased four months in a row, totaling 91,000. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 6/4/04)
• Unemployment insurance claims declined 6,000 applications to 339,000 for the week ending May 29. From the same week a year ago, claims are down 97,000 applications. (Employment and Training Administration, 6/3/04)
• After a post-bubble slump, technology firms are hiring again. (Source: WSJ, “Tech Jobs Start to Come Back in US after Three Year Slump,” 4/29/04)
• College grads are facing the best job market since the recession. (Source: WSJ “Surprise Gifts for this years College Graduates: Job Offers,” 5/11/04)

Incomes and earnings are up

• Two-thirds of the 1 million payroll jobs added since the beginning of this year were in industries that pay more than the national average for non-supervisory workers of $15.64 per hour. The professional and business services industry experienced the largest increase in payroll jobs. It pays on average $17.37 per hour. (Source: “The Employment Situation: May 2004,” Bureau of Labor Statistics, 6/4/04)
• Average hourly earnings of production or non-supervisory workers on private non-farm payrolls increased by 5 cents in May to $15.64, seasonally adjusted. For the year they increased 2.2%.
• Average weekly earnings increased by 0.3% in May to $528.63. For the year they increased 2.5%. (Source: “The Employment Situation: May 2004,” Bureau of Labor Statistics, 6/4/04)
• Real disposable personal income increased at a 4.9% annual rate in the first quarter of 2004, faster than its annual pace in 2001, 2002, and 2003. (Source: “Personal Income and Outlays: April 2004,” Bureau of Economic Analysis, 5/28/04)
• Since President Bush has been in office, real disposable personal income has increased 10% versus 7% for the same period of President Clinton’s first term. (Source: “Personal Income and Outlays: April 2004,” Bureau of Economic Analysis, 5/28/04)
• In the past year, real hourly compensation in the non-farm business sector has gone up 2.7%. That’s faster than the average growth of 1.5% in the 1990s. Since President Bush has been in office, real hourly compensation has gone up 1% per year. During President Clinton’s first term it increased just 0.2%. (Source: “Productivity and Costs,” Bureau of Labor Statistics, 6/3/04)

Consumer spending remains strong

• May was a “sizzling” month for auto sales, rising 3.4% from a year ago and registering its best month this year. (Source: USA Today, 6/3/04)
• In the first quarter of 2004, consumption expenditures increased 3.9% and accounted for more than half the increase in output. Unlike previous downturns in the business cycle, consumer spending has remained resilient throughout the downturn and has gained momentum in the recovery. (Source: Gross Domestic Product, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 5/25/04)
• Retail and food service sales increased by 8.0% on a year over year basis. Total sales for the February through April period were up 8.3% from the same period a year ago. (Source: Census, 5/13/04)

Housing remains strong and homeownership at an all time high

• Housing values increased 7.7% in the year ended in the first quarter of 2004 and are up more 40% over the last five years. (Source: OFHEO, June 1, 2004)
• Existing home sales increased for the third straight month to 6.6 million homes in April. (Source: National Association of Realtors, 5/25/04)
• U.S. homeownership rate is at an all-time high of 68.6% and minority ownership is over 50.8% for the first time. (Source: Census, 4/22/04)
• Americans have saved $10 billion a year on lower interest costs. (Source: Freddie Mac, 05/03/04)
• Mortgage refinancing permitted homeowners to convert more than $200 billion of home equity into cash during 2002 and 2003 and forecasts are for nearly $114 billion this year. (Source: Freddie Mac, 05/03/04)

Stocks rebound from burst bubble

• In the past year the S&P 500 Index has risen 18%. (Source: Standard & Poor’s)
• After weakening in 2000 through 2002, mutual funds increased their value by $1 trillion last year. (Source: “Trends in Mutual Fund Investing,” Investment Company Institute, 5/27/04)

Consumer and business confidence is buoyant

• According to a survey by the Business Round Table, 88% of executives predicted sales would rise over the next six months. (Source: Bloomberg, 6/3/04)
• The Conference Board’s index of consumer confidence is at its highest level in 4 months. (Source: The Conference Board, 5/25/04)
• A recent survey of CEOs indicates the highest confidence level in 20 years. (Source: The Conference Board, 4/5/04)

Investment is strong

• Business investment increased 5.8% in the first quarter of 2004, adjusted for inflation, registering its fourth consecutive increase. (Source: Gross Domestic Product, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 5/25/04)
• Investment in equipment and software, adjusted for inflation, is up 14% at an annual rate – the fastest 3-quarter increase since the late 1990s. (Source: Gross Domestic Product, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 5/25/04)

Economic Activity is expanding Nationwide

• The Pennsylvania Economic Activity Index increased by 0.3% in April and is up 1.7% from a year ago. (Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, June 2, 2004)
• The Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index surged in May recording the highest reading since July 1988. (Source: Economy.com, May, 28, 2004)
• In April, Cincinnati’s manufacturing economy showed significant gains. (Source: NAPM-Cincinnati, April 30, 2004)
• Cleveland business conditions are up dramatically from a year ago. (Source: PMA-Cleveland, April 2004)
• Economic activity in Pittsburgh has improved for 4 consecutive months. (Source: NAPM-Pittsburgh, April 2004)

Manufacturing sector has shifted into overdrive

• Manufacturing jobs have increased 4 months in a row for a total of 91,000. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 6/4/04)
• Factory orders are 12.5% higher than a year ago. (Source: US Department of Commerce, 6/3/03)
• Manufacturing activity has expanded for 12 consecutive months and is approaching a two decade high. (Institute for Supply Management, 6/1/04)
• The manufacturing employment index is at the highest level in 31 years. (Institute for Supply Management, 6/1/04)
• In April, industrial production increased 4.9% (year-over-year), the fastest rate in more than three years and the level is back to pre-recession levels. (Sources: Federal Reserve, 5/14/04)
• Capacity utilization increased in five of the last six months increasing 2.5% over that same period. (Sources: Federal Reserve, 5/14/04)
• The Federal Reserve’s regional economic outlook, [The Beige Book], noted that economic activity increased across the nation during the last three months. (Source: Federal Reserve. 4/21/04)

Exports are picking up as global demand rebounds

• Exports have risen 2.6% over the last month, more than double the average rate of growth over the last year. (Source: Census, 5/12/04)

• The growth rate of exports has exceeded the growth in imports in two of the last three quarters. (Source: Gross Domestic Product, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 5/25/04)
• At $27.7 billion, March exports of capital goods were the highest since May 2001. (Source: Census, 5/12/04)

State Fiscal Conditions Improve

• Thirty-two states are forecasting surpluses by the end of FY 2004. (Source: NCSL 4/28/04)

[fooman]

Awesome post. I wish people would spend more time talking about all the good W has done for us.

He has. We should not have to focus too much on negative kerry. stuff.

[Christian4Bush]

Excellent numbers, excellent news...Daschole is deeply saddened...

The Lies by Lurch aren't working.
The American people ARE working.

Any questions?

[Always Right]

The economy created 248,000 payroll jobs in May – 1.4 million payroll jobs have now been added in the past nine months.

Actually, the number is 1.535 million jobs.....

[cake_crumb]

Worst Economy Since the Great Depression? ROFLOL!

[Brett66]

Not only should Bush be touting the economy, he should also lambast Kerry for trying to "talk down" the economy.

[kevkrom]

Actually, the number is 1.535 million jobs.....

It's probably intentionally low-balled so that any possible adjustment made in the future can't be pointed to as proof of a "lie" in this rundown.

[Christian4Bush]

Every day, Sean Hannity's announcer (Scott Shannon, I think) mentions the exact day count until the Election in November. Today it stands at 151. That seems like a long time, doesn't it? Especially with the drumbeat of negativity against arguably one of the greatest Presidents that have served (out of 43).

Well, if it seems like a long time, consider this: today is ALREADY June 4. We've gone through New Year's, President's Day, Easter, and Memorial Day. The 4th of July is just around the corner, and tradition says that the year flies after the 4th of July (except, perhaps, during a Presidential election year).

If it seems like just yesterday when Hannity's count was at 250, perhaps that's because it WAS almost yesterday. There's still plenty of time for stuff to happen, and hopefully, by the time Thanksgiving and Christmas come around, they will be Happy and Merry, because of W's re-election, and I will be packing my bags...

...for Washington D.C., Thursday, January 20, 2005 (an early 36th birthday present to myself)!

[cake_crumb]

"We should not have to focus too much on negative kerry. stuff."

Pffft. You must be forgetting the portion of freepers who consistantly Bush bash. While some of us have a valid reason for our vendetta against Hanoi Johnny Boy, we also try to highlight the many positives of the administration of one of our greatest leaders, President George W. Bush.

Besides, since Kerry HAS no positives, it takes no effort to focus on his negatives.

[Coop]

I imagine we won't have too many of the "Yeah, but we're adding low-paying jobs!" crowd on this thread. :-D

Two-thirds of the 1 million payroll jobs added since the beginning of this year were in industries that pay more than the national average for non-supervisory workers of $15.64 per hour. The professional and business services industry experienced the largest increase in payroll jobs. It pays on average $17.37 per hour. (Source: “The Employment Situation: May 2004,” Bureau of Labor Statistics, 6/4/04)...

[Coop]

Not only should Bush be touting the economy

He is.

[kevkrom]

I imagine we won't have too many of the "Yeah, but we're adding low-paying jobs!" crowd on this thread. :-D

But dontcha know that all of them $16+ jobs are just for "hamburger flippers"?

[zencat]

"Two-thirds of the 1 million payroll jobs added since the beginning of this year were in industries that pay more than the national average for non-supervisory workers of $15.64 per hour. The professional and business services industry experienced the largest increase in payroll jobs. It pays on average $17.37 per hour. (Source: “The Employment Situation: May 2004,” Bureau of Labor Statistics, 6/4/04)"

Boy, don't let Willie Green find this out. The last thing he's holding on to is that the all the jobs being created are just low wage positions without benefits.

[marblehead17]

ping

[BlessedByLiberty]

Can't wait to tell libs I know, I'll believe the economy's bad when I see Michael Moore starving in the streets. Until then, don't bother me!

[fooman]

Is bush perfect? No, he has let gov grow too much. He is probably somewhere between Reagan and Eisenhower in stature.

Of course, that is light years ahead of clue crioux kerry

[mountaineer]

I recommend cutting and pasting the above to a flyer to be distributed at Jesse Jackson's "The sky is falling, there are no jobs!!!" bus tour.

[Texas_Dawg]

It is impossible for the economy to ever improve as long as GWB as President. Why? Just because.

We're all doomed.