Latest poll returns Ohio to the Bush column.
Since I live here and am a native, I know the conservatism in the suburbs and rural areas. The inner cities will kill him unless he works some magic, but the conservative areas NORMALLY carry Ohio in presidential elections.
Ohio and Florida are the keys.
Go to Dales page to see. http://home.comcast.net/~gerrydal/
I agree that Ohio and Florida are key... but even a couple of "small losses" from the 2000 column (say Missouri and Arkansas) could throw this thing, anyway.
On the other hand, 18-Electoral-Vote Michigan starting to trend in Bush's direction (or at least, becoming a Toss-Up) is unexpected, and interesting...