Centered over Oklahoma and (ahem) Nebraska with Missouri off to the right.
Posted on 05/29/2004 11:22:56 AM PDT by dusty99999
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 AM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004
VALID 291653Z - 300100Z
...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING A FEW STRONG...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
WESTERN IOWA CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS NORTHWEST MISSOURI CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA OKLAHOMA
THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS FROM THE CANADIAN BORDER OF EASTERN ND AND MN SWD THRU MUCH OF CENTRAL TX.
AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT OVER A LARGE PART OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE AREA.
AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY NE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...PRODUCING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL DRAW INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. A VIGOROUS JET STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL STRENGTHEN WINDS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WITH VERY STRONG SURFACE HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...VARIOUS SURFACE FEATURES WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF NEBRASKA...IOWA...EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN KANSAS. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM A LITTLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTHWARD THROUGH OKLAHOMA INTO PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN TEXAS.
THE COMBINATION OF THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES WILL RESULT IN SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT STORMS THAT QUICKLY DEVELOP THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. A STRONG POSSIBLY FOR LONG TRACK TORNADOES WILL EXIST IN THE HIGH RISK AREA.
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL AFTER DARK AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS REMAINING PORTIONS OF IOWA...MISSOURI AND OKLAHOMA. IN ADDITION...MORE ISOLATED BUT STILL POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE IN REGIONS ADJACENT TO THE HIGH RISK AREA FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA SOUTH TO THE BIG BEND REGION OF TEXAS.
THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
I have my own program to watch the live Level III data. What program are you using?
Centered over Oklahoma and (ahem) Nebraska with Missouri off to the right.
Im in Holmesville, its a tiny town of about 45 people 7 miles SE of Beatrice.
The spotters and police are reporting strong rotation in the Odell area, there are also reports of tree damage. Its headed my way, and the sirens are going off in neighboring towns.
Just spent the last hour os so watching the local ABC affaillate and thier chopper follow a large tornado approx 25 miles north of the Downtown KC airport. They were able to catch a massive wall cloud touch down and followed the resulting tornado for about 20 minutes plus.
Not much damage apparently as it was over a mainly rural area.
Regards
alfa6 ;>]
Looks like the rotation is near Wymore and Blue Springs. There's a definite hook just across the border in KS, near Lone Elm and Oketo.
29 tornadoes now..plus more not reported in local storm reports yet
I'm using StormLab... recently updated (today) and finally working right, after a spring of frustration.
keep us posted on damage...report said damage west of dearborn
The technique involves overlaying alternately the Reflectivity and Velocity images and alternating like once a second, by locating any identifiable Reflectivity features - hooks, heavy precip cores, etc., one can then observe the area where inflow is expected and observe the Doppler velocity in/around that same area:
Wow ...
Now THAT"S the way to 'storm chase' ...
where are you watching your radar from.
That is really neat dusty...
We're having them all over the place it seems like. There was one just finished that was about 1/2 mile wide perhaps in eastern buchanon county. We got to see it form via camera on a helicopter. (I don't think any houses were hit..maybe a barn)
Same with the ones in northern clay county missouri. We can see little spikes come out of the clouds..then they are popping back into the cloud. As long as they don't head south towards us, I'm just fine.
Hi alfa..if ya don't remember me, we protested against gore together...you little devil you. ((insiders grin))
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0980 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 326... VALID 292337Z - 300030Z LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY OVER NERN KS INTO NWRN MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS SHOULD AID ONGOING TORNADIC SUPERCELL ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED INTO SRN PORTIONS OF THE WW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH MUCH OF THIS DEVELOPMENT. ..DARROW.. 05/29/2004 ATTN...WFO...EAX... 38979461 39739513 40379412 39849322 38889372 - - - - - - - MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0981 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0704 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND AND NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 324... VALID 300004Z - 300200Z CONTINUE WW 324. THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT...CONTINUES NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ORIENTED WNW-ESE NEAR THE SD/ND BORDER. DEEP LAYER OF SLY FLOW ABOVE THE FRONTAL SURFACE PER FARGO VAD SUGGESTS CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION...AND FEED OF MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE FRONTAL SURFACE /MLCAPE TO 2000 J/KG/. STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER WW 324 IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS SERN ND AND W-CENTRAL MN WHERE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST. CELLS WILL TRACK GENERALLY 200/15-20 KT...WITH STRONGER CORES LIKELY CONTAINING HAIL. VERY STRONG HODOGRAPH CURVATURE MAY SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH THESE ELEVATED STORMS AND THREAT FOR LARGEST HAIL. IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD NATURE OF CONVECTION AND NUMEROUS CELL INTERACTIONS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE FAR SERN ND COUNTIES DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. SURFACE FRONT IS VERY CLOSE TO THE ND/SD LINE...AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SRH WILL SUPPORT TORNADO POTENTIAL NEAR THE BORDER...BUT PRIMARILY IN WW 321 ACROSS ERN SD/SWRN MN. A SMALL-SCALE VORT MAX CENTERED 20N DVL CONTINUES MOVING NWD...HOWEVER...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS GENERALLY WEAK...LIKELY DUE TO LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SUSTAIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD INTO WRN HALF OF MN. ..BANACOS.. 05/30/2004 ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 45919861 48960077 48979704 45919503
We did too..did you see it form? That was amazing..I thought it was going to fizzle out in the beginning. I turned my head for a few seconds and bam..it was huge, 1/2 mile wide or so. We're south of kc....you near us?
We now have two storms working, one in the St. Joseph area and one by Smithville which is maybe 15 miles north of Downtown KC.
The local Fox station has gotten thier chopper in the air and are following the Smithville storm. The ABC station is following the first storm which is up by St. Joe. The Smithville storm was showing a wall cloud but it did not seem to be as well defined as the first storm.
The first storm the pilot and cameraman were able to follow the tornado and we were able to see debris in the air. The first tornado started out about a mile wide but narrowed down to naybe a couple hundred yards wide at the end. At point I wqas able to see the funnel cloud go behind a church leaving it untouched as somew debris was in the air.
I will try to post a link a liitle later to their webpage if they have video on it.
Regards
alfa6 ;>}
...A TORNADO WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR REPUBLIC COUNTY...
AT 720 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 4 NORTHWEST OF SCANDIA. ANOTHER TORNADO WAS INDICATED BY RADAR NEAR BELLEVILLE...OR ABOUT 17 MILES NORTH OF CONCORDIA. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST ABOUT 15 MPH
...TORNADO WARNING CONTINUES FOR SOUTHERN BLAINE AND CANADIAN COUNTIES...
AT 723 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM SPOTTERS OBSERVED A TORNADO 4 MILES SOUTH OF GREENFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE CALUMET...CONCHO...GEARY... GREENFIELD AND OKARCHE
Hi Kim, I am at the 18th St Expressway and the Kansas River.
Fox 4 has gotten Skyfox up and they are following the strom up by Smithville.
My scanner has died so I am not getting the raw data like I used to.
Take care and keep a sharp eye out for a while
Regards
alfa6 ;>}
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