[Coop]

but in your graphic I see a 23 point slide for Bush among independents in the past year.

So? Independents are least likely to vote. Bush is running very strong among his base, and his base is more motivated than Kerry's. And he's raised over $200 million from over one million contributors.

[JasonC]

Great, he's got money. A second term however hinges on votes not money. There aren't enough votes in the base of either party to win a national election. Independents decide elections. If they split roughly 50-50, then sure, how motivated the base is matters. If they aren't, then that doesn't help. Don't get silly here. Bush needs around 50% of the independent vote.