My bias is this: undecideds tend to break almost entirely for the challenger. This is the average of Bush's recent poll numbers (last month and a half) in battleground states from your very own blog.
Arizona: 43%
Arkansas: 48%
Florida: 46%
Iowa: 46%
Michigan: 43%
New Hampshire: 46%
New Jersey: 42%
New Mexico: 46%
Oregon: 45%
Pennsylvania: 43%
Wisconsin: 45%
West Virginia: 48%
In all cases where Nader is an option those figures are preferred. If you think these are the numbers of an incumbent president headed for reelection, you are probably in for a rude awakening if they keep up.
Assigning all other states to their 2000 results and switching only those indicated above (Bush 2000 states polling under 50%) gives Kerry 332 EVs. Assuming that either AR or WV will slip through for Bush gives 326/327 playing around with other states on the cusp (AZ, MO, NV, WI) centers Kerry EVs somewhere in the 320s. This Zogby poll implies 320 EVs, so for the time being I'm content with a 320-327 projection if the election were held tomorrow.
If you want to keep pretending as many do that this election is an open contest, then be my guest. I will assume that it's following the 'rules' of past incumbent reelection efforts until I have reason to think otherwise (i.e., Nov 3rd). You may think it's good news for GWB when he's tied with Kerry or slightly leading with numbers in the mid or low 40s, but I don't. Sorry.
Commonly accepted, but untrue in Presidential elections.
Here is some evidence to back my assertion up. I'm using Gallup here, since they have available data going back over many elections. In each case, I am presenting the results from a month before the election, the results in the poll before the last one (their last one never has undecideds), and the election results.
| Year | Race | 1 Month Out | Next To Last Poll | Result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1936 | Incumbent FDR vs. Landon | FDR 51, Landon 44 | FDR 54, Landon 43 | FDR 61, Landon 37 | Broke towards incumbent |
| 1940 | Incumbent FDR vs. Willkie | FDR 51, Willkie 42 | FDR 51, Willkie 42 | FDR 55, Willkie 45 | Broke evenly |
| 1944 | Incumbent FDR vs. Dewey | FDR 47, Dewey 45 | FDR 47, Dewey 45 | FDR 53, Dewey 46 | Broke towards incumbent |
| 1948 | No incumbent pres, incumbent VP Truman vs Dewey | Dewey 46, Truman 40 | Dewey 50, Truman 45 | Truman 50, Dewey 45 | Broke towards the incumbent VP |
| 1952 | No incumbents. Dems incumbent party. Ike vs. Stevenson | Ike 51, Stevenson 38 | Ike 48, Stevenson 39 | Ike 55, Stevenson 44 | Broke evenly |
| 1956 | Incumbent Ike vs Stevenson | Ike 51, Stevenson 41 | Ike 51, Stevenson 41 | Ike 57, Stevenson 42 | Broke towards incumbent |
| 1960 | No incumbent pres. Incumbent VP vs Kennedy | Kennedy 49, Nixon 45 | Kennedy 49, Nixon 45 | Kennedy 50, Nixon 50 | Broke for incumbent VP |
| 1964 | Incumbent LBJ vs. Goldwater | LBJ 64, Goldwater 29 | LBJ 64, Goldwater 29 | LBJ 61, Goldwater 38 | Broke towards challenger |
| 1968 | No incumbents. Dems incumbent party. Humphrey vs Nixon | Nixon 43, Humphrey 31 | Nixon 44, Humphrey 36 | Nixon 43, Humphrey 43 | Broke towards incumbent party |
| 1972 | Incumbent Nixon vs McGovern | Nixon 60, McGovern 34 | Nixon 59, McGovern 36 | Nixon 61, McGovern 38 | Broke evenly |
| 1976 | Incumbent Ford vs Carter | Carter 47, Ford 41 | Carter 48, Ford 44 | Carter 50, Ford 48 | Slight break towards incumbent |
| 1980 | Incumbent Carter vs Reagan | Carter 47, Reagan 39 | Carter 47, Reagan 39 | Reagan 51, Carter 41 | Broke strongly towards challenger. So did some of the decideds. |
| 1984 | Incumbent Reagan vs Mondale | Reagan 58, Mondale 38 | Reagan 56, Mondale 39 | Reagan 59, Mondale 41 | Broke evenly |
| 1988 | No incumbent pres. Incumbent VP Bush vs Dukakis | Bush 49, Dukakis 43 | Bush 53, Dukakis 39 | Bush 53, Dukakis 46 | Depends on which you use. Broke evenly from a month out. Broke slightly towards challenger from the 2nd to last. |
| 1992 | Incumbent Bush vs Clinton | Clinton 47, Bush 29 | Clinton 43, Bush 36 | Clinton 43, Bush 38 | Broke towards incumbent |
| 1996 | Incumbent Clinton vs Dole | Clinton 48, Dole 39 | Clinton 52, Dole 41 | Clinton 49, Dole 41 | Broke evenly |
| 2000 | No incumbent pres. Incumbent VP Gore vs Bush | Bush 48, Gore 43 | Bush 47, Gore 45 | Gore 48, Bush 48 | Broke towards incumbent VP |