Here is some evidence to back my assertion up. I'm using Gallup here, since they have available data going back over many elections. In each case, I am presenting the results from a month before the election, the results in the poll before the last one (their last one never has undecideds), and the election results.
Year | Race | 1 Month Out | Next To Last Poll | Result | Verdict |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1936 | Incumbent FDR vs. Landon | FDR 51, Landon 44 | FDR 54, Landon 43 | FDR 61, Landon 37 | Broke towards incumbent |
1940 | Incumbent FDR vs. Willkie | FDR 51, Willkie 42 | FDR 51, Willkie 42 | FDR 55, Willkie 45 | Broke evenly |
1944 | Incumbent FDR vs. Dewey | FDR 47, Dewey 45 | FDR 47, Dewey 45 | FDR 53, Dewey 46 | Broke towards incumbent |
1948 | No incumbent pres, incumbent VP Truman vs Dewey | Dewey 46, Truman 40 | Dewey 50, Truman 45 | Truman 50, Dewey 45 | Broke towards the incumbent VP |
1952 | No incumbents. Dems incumbent party. Ike vs. Stevenson | Ike 51, Stevenson 38 | Ike 48, Stevenson 39 | Ike 55, Stevenson 44 | Broke evenly |
1956 | Incumbent Ike vs Stevenson | Ike 51, Stevenson 41 | Ike 51, Stevenson 41 | Ike 57, Stevenson 42 | Broke towards incumbent |
1960 | No incumbent pres. Incumbent VP vs Kennedy | Kennedy 49, Nixon 45 | Kennedy 49, Nixon 45 | Kennedy 50, Nixon 50 | Broke for incumbent VP |
1964 | Incumbent LBJ vs. Goldwater | LBJ 64, Goldwater 29 | LBJ 64, Goldwater 29 | LBJ 61, Goldwater 38 | Broke towards challenger |
1968 | No incumbents. Dems incumbent party. Humphrey vs Nixon | Nixon 43, Humphrey 31 | Nixon 44, Humphrey 36 | Nixon 43, Humphrey 43 | Broke towards incumbent party |
1972 | Incumbent Nixon vs McGovern | Nixon 60, McGovern 34 | Nixon 59, McGovern 36 | Nixon 61, McGovern 38 | Broke evenly |
1976 | Incumbent Ford vs Carter | Carter 47, Ford 41 | Carter 48, Ford 44 | Carter 50, Ford 48 | Slight break towards incumbent |
1980 | Incumbent Carter vs Reagan | Carter 47, Reagan 39 | Carter 47, Reagan 39 | Reagan 51, Carter 41 | Broke strongly towards challenger. So did some of the decideds. |
1984 | Incumbent Reagan vs Mondale | Reagan 58, Mondale 38 | Reagan 56, Mondale 39 | Reagan 59, Mondale 41 | Broke evenly |
1988 | No incumbent pres. Incumbent VP Bush vs Dukakis | Bush 49, Dukakis 43 | Bush 53, Dukakis 39 | Bush 53, Dukakis 46 | Depends on which you use. Broke evenly from a month out. Broke slightly towards challenger from the 2nd to last. |
1992 | Incumbent Bush vs Clinton | Clinton 47, Bush 29 | Clinton 43, Bush 36 | Clinton 43, Bush 38 | Broke towards incumbent |
1996 | Incumbent Clinton vs Dole | Clinton 48, Dole 39 | Clinton 52, Dole 41 | Clinton 49, Dole 41 | Broke evenly |
2000 | No incumbent pres. Incumbent VP Gore vs Bush | Bush 48, Gore 43 | Bush 47, Gore 45 | Gore 48, Bush 48 | Broke towards incumbent VP |
Hey, that's really interesting! I'm gonna have to revise my approach now so I'm unsure how I would speculatively distribute the EVs except to say that I would assign Kerry notably less than I had previously. Almost certainly no more than 295, off the top of my head.
Thanks for posting that!
"1948: No incumbent pres, incumbent VP Truman vs Dewey"
Thanks for posting that.