Pre-Written Headlines for AP & Reuters
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Posted on 05/23/2004 1:22:17 PM PDT by Aetius
After U.S. troops captured former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, the Gallup poll found Bush’s approval rating was over 60 percent. It is now down to 46 percent. Six months ago more than half of those surveyed were satisfied with the direction of the country; now, almost two-thirds are dissatisfied. The precipitous slide gives the Democrats improved electoral prospects this fall in the House and Senate, according to a report in the LA Times.
In the House, where 218 seats constitute a majority, there currently are 228 Republicans, 205 Democrats, one independent who routinely votes with the Democrats and a vacant seat. In the Senate, there are 51 Republicans, 48 Democrats and one independent who usually sides with the Democrats.
Just a year ago Democrats doubted they could recapture either chamber – despite the relatively narrow margins.
But the continuing grim headlines from Iraq and a yet wavering confidence in the economy are not only impacting Bush but working to the detriment of Republicans in Congress -- generally.
What a Difference a Year Makes
Just a short year ago, confident GOP leaders looked to expand their narrow control of the House and Senate to establish a durable majority that would dominate national politics into the next decade.
But that was then --
“The psychology has changed from one of [achieving] a permanent victory to maintaining the status quo,” said Michael Franc, a Republican who is a vice president of the conservative Heritage Foundation think tank in Washington.
Despite the opem window of opportunity, Democrats must still somehow morph the general voter discontent into key victories.
Abetting the party in the struggle for the Senate is the unexpected strength of Democratic candidates in several Bush strongholds, as well as retirements by GOP incumbents. As for the bid to take over the House, a good dose of momentum would come if they won an open seat in heavily Republican South Dakota — a potential second Democratic victory in a special House election this year.
Many Republicans are relieved that Election Day is not right around the corner, reports the Times.
“This is just the beginning of the summer,” said Rep. Zach Wamp, R-Tenn. “But if we get to Labor Day and we have these numbers in the polls, we have a big problem.”
Part of that big problem is already here, however.
Recent polls indicate that the Democratic Party had gained an edge over the GOP when people were asked how they would vote in congressional elections.
A Time/CNN poll found that 53 percent said they would vote for a Democratic candidate for Congress in their district, compared with 40 percent who said they would back the Republican.
A survey for the Associated Press reported that that 50 percent wanted Democrats to win control of Congress, compared with 41 percent favoring the Republicans.
Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center for People and the Press, said such results probably reflected weakening support for Bush rather than a solid indication of voting intentions, adding, “No president gets turned out of office without taking some of his brethren in Congress with him.”
Harbinger of Political Swing
Furthermore, some Republican strategists say such soundings of public opinion are too generic to predict the outcomes in specific House races, which often are determined by local concerns. Other GOP leaders, however, worry that if these polls are the harbinger of a political swing that lasts into the fall, House seats not now competitive will become so.
“If that really is the mood of the country … we’ll have races that turn from monkeys into gorillas,” said Rep. Thomas M. Davis (R-Va.), former chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee.
In the meantime, First Lady Laura Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney have been stumping for congressional candidates -- hoping to prevent the evolution of a hostile Congress to dog the president’s second term if successful at the polls in November.
Other Factors in the Mix
In the House, new district lines drawn after the 2000 census made safe seats even safer and reduced the potentially competitive ones to a few dozen, according to the Times report. Furthermore, Texas legislators redrew House districts in the state to give Republicans the potential to gain as many as six seats there.
In the Senate, the fight also began with a disadvantage for the Democrats because they had to defend 19 seats up for election, compared with the GOP’s 16.
Adding to the grim picture, Democratic senators from the South, a region Republicans have come to claim, opted not to seek reelection.
But some breaks are cutting to the advantage of the Democrats.
Last month, Republican Rep. Jack Quinn of New York announced he would retire, opening a House seat that Democrats have a chance to win.
A Democrat won a special election in Kentucky, taking over a GOP-held seat.
In South Dakota’s looming special election, Democrat Stephanie Herseth has been leading Republican Larry Diedrich in the polls. The vote will fill the seat vacated when Republican Rep. William J. Janklow was convicted of a lesser degree of manslaughter after running a stop sign and killing a motorcyclist.
Flipping back to the other side of the coin, Democrats suffered a hit when party incumbents in Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina and South Carolina decided to retire.
However, reports the Times, the GOP appears to have garnered a clear advantage only in Georgia.
According to battle plans, Democrats hope to gain seats in Colorado, Illinois and Oklahoma — seats opened by GOP retirements. The Democratic candidate in Illinois is favored to win there, and the party has fielded strong contenders in the other two states.
Republican stronghold Alaska is going down to the wire. Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski faces a primary challenge from the right and. Even if she prevails, she will then face strong Democratic opposition from former governor Tony Knowles.
Dimming GOP Prospects
Taking a hard new look at the overall developments, Jennifer E. Duffy, an analyst with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said that in her estimation, the GOP chances of keeping control of the Senate has fallen to about 60 percent. Earlier this year, she had rated that prospect at 90 percent.
“We are in an extremely volatile environment,” said Sen. Jon Corzine, D-N.J., chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. “There has been a major failure to manage the occupation in Iraq, which opens up people’s minds to the question of whether there has been competent management on a bunch of other issues.”
“It’s an object lesson in how quickly things can change in this environment,” said GOP pollster Whit Ayres, “and how event-driven they are.”
Boy, you are depressing. The economy will be the key. The war itself is not a disaster but a great success. Perception is critical and Kerry is not an alternative for the good.
President Bush may have low aproval but where's Kerry?
Kerry cannot get traction on any issue. The economy is Bush's
GDP numbers to come out this week will show about a 4.5% increase for the first quarter. If the war was so bad consumer confidence would not be high.
It all looks good for Bush.
I love to see him hit it out of the park with a big speech about all that he knows about the UN, the oil for food program, the complicity of North Korea with Libya and Iraq, etc.
Must see tv. I do so hope it's all coming together. Maybe we'll have our own October surprise. LOL
The one thing that the media is missing and scared of..
is California is in play......maybe it's the Rove strategy,
but this is being downplayed all over..even though the last
poll showed a 1% (yes-One) difference....Will Arnie get
on the bandwagon or does the Edward Kennedy influence get
him to be a lukewarm supporter...if he can barnstorm the
state with the President...it's curtains for Kerry and the
Dems....All of us Californians, and there are a lot on this
site, have to whoop it up....@ the Convention and all of
October..up to...11/2...Jake
Never thought I'd ever say this, but Go Arnie!!
(time to terminate the libs)
They libbies and the Buchananites are in a sheer panic. Afghanistan is no longer run by the Taliban. Saddam is on his way to execution and Iraq has been effectively disarmed. Khadaffy gave up his nuke ambitions. Al Qaeda operatives are being killed by the scores over there rather than them killing us over here. The Oil for Food gravy train is over for the UN and there's more fun on the way.
If the GOP loses,
Don't believe all you read about this election and George W. Bush's popularity sliding, I see how people react to George W. Bush , and they are proud to be with him, to see him. George Bush is a great President , who has had to overcome some tough obstacles in his less than four years of service. Any other man, and America would of crumbled on Sept 11, 2001.
The Media hyped Howard Dean, so much Al Gore endorsed him before the first primary vote. Howard Dean did not make it out of the shoot in the Iowa Primary, and stumbled after he finally made it out.
We only have to look back to the last Democrat who ran for President from Massachusetts, to see a Candidate who was over hyped and then badly beaten in the actual vote. John Kerry does not even warm the person next too him, his fellow democrats have asked him to be warmer. John Kerry has no core principles to guide him, as he rides both sides of the issues until he can figure out what he thinks might be the most popular. John Kerry can hardly figure out what is the Popular stance in the Iraq War. John Kerry can not even chose a Vice President running mate.
I remember when the Media hyped the end of the world with the Y2K disasters. The General Media of America is Sick, and would sell their own Mothers for high news ratings, would sell this country out to the French, and Terrorist to get news ratings.
I thought I felt that burning, itchy sensation...
Really?? I did not know that. That is amazing.
this must have been written by joe conason
Pre-Written Headlines for AP & Reuters
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It's not wishful thinking, it's called political propaganda to favor the democrat party. Been around a long time now and AP is just one of many practitioners.
From your lips to God's ears, Jim!
This article was written to boost RAT fundraising.
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