To: Truth666
Fact 1 - NO traces of non-endemic palms in Lord HoweFirst, I don't think you have a clear idea of what "endemic" means. Second, considering the basic things you've gotten wrong on this thread, I won't take your word for it that there are no non-endemic palms on LHI. Please provide a source. Third, just because the LHI palms are not now found elsewhere, it doesn't mean that they didn't come from elsewhere in the past. Fourth, you've not presented any evidence that no existing species of palm elsewhere might have served as a parent stock to any given LHI palms. Fifth, you've given no indication of how different the LHI palms are from palms elsewhere. Sixth, you've presented no evidence that any of the palms (or rather, their ancestors) might have weathered the last ice age on LHI. Seventh, I thought you'd given up on the palms in favor of the coral.
Fact 2 - NO traces of civilisations of other planets in Earth.
That's very hard to parse; at least one preposition is poorly chosen. However, it seems you are referring to the Fermi problem: if alien civilizations exist, why haven't they already arrived here? My personal expectation is that civilizations don't last long. As their intelligence becomes ever greater, the timescales that are relevant to the civilization shrink to zero.
What is statistically more astonishing ?
I don't think either observation lends itself to any kind of statistical inference.
To: Physicist
"First, I don't think you have a clear idea of what "endemic" means. " I precised what I meant with endemic "in the sense that they don't exist or were recorded anyhwere else" - and included it in the
new version, post 188
To: Physicist
"I won't take your word for it that there are no non-endemic palms on LHI."
Should I be astonished that an expert on evolution theory comes up with this?
In view of the endemism facts about unique climates I shouldn't need to included any remarks about palm endemism in the article.
In view of the facts about correlating endemism and how isolated the area and how seldom the climate is, I shouldn't need to included any remarks about palm endemism in the article.
Some facts about (palms) endemism : the worldwide and largest nearby examples (of the palm family).
Madagascar
This large island off the east coast of Africa has the most remarkable palm flora of anywhere in the world. Dransfield and Beentje (1995) describe as native 167 species in 13 genera; only two of these species are also found in mainland Africa, giving Madagascar a palm species endemism rate of 99 percent. New Caledonia
New Caledonia has 32 indigenous palm species, all endemic (Moore and Uhl, 1984)
To: Physicist
Third, just because the LHI palms are not now found elsewhere, it doesn't mean that they didn't come from elsewhere in the past.
This is part of Fact 2, that you correctly described as another example of the Fermi problem. Answer later, in the scope of Fact 2.
To: Physicist
Fourth, you've not presented any evidence that no existing species of palm elsewhere might have served as a parent stock to any given LHI palms.
Again this in the scope of Fact 2. Statistically it's even less probable, since it requires additionally :
- only the LHI endemic palms made it to Lord Howe
- they were extremely seldom in their supposed original habitats, since no traces of them anywhere else
To: Physicist
Fifth, you've given no indication of how different the LHI palms are from palms elsewhere.
Yes I did. Survival id one of the best systems to measure how unique a species is :
- at the lowest end of the scale you have the invasive species, that when introduced in a new habitat destroy the native species in shortest time.
- at the top end of the scale you have in second place species that are still able to survive at least in one other habitat under natural conditions (without care) but are not able to keep all their features (for instance the cork tree (quercus suber), that produces cork only in its natural habitat, some small areas of southwestern Europe)
- at the very top of the scale you have species additionally are not able to survive without care - Lord Howe palms are among them.
To: Physicist
Sixth, you've presented no evidence that any of the palms (or rather, their ancestors) might have weathered the last ice age on LHI.
Yes I did. I mentioned first temperature and then cloud cover.
You can say that extinction of a species due to causes other than humans is a function of how unique the species and how isolated the habitat is. I've shown in the previous point that Lord Howe palms (BTW, the same for corals) are the world leading palms for that function.
In other words, the first palm species to perish as a result of climate change would be the Lord Howe island palm species(probably along with the Juan Fernandez islands palm).
To: Physicist
Seventh, I thought you'd given up on the palms in favor of the coral.
Obviously not, since before posting the revised version at #188 (which continued to include both) I answered every objection about palms.
To: Physicist
So now let's check your answer to fact 2.
I don't think either observation lends itself to any kind of statistical inference.
No surprise here. Evolution theory avoids statistiscs like the devil avoids the cross ...
To: Physicist
To: Physicist
It is very simple to see what is statistically more astonishing ...
To: Physicist
At this point it is convenient to recall the "big lie construct techniques" that I mentioned before in this thread, as it was required ...
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