[FA14]

Agree with you. 7 polls aren't wrong. While I don't agree with your conclusions many of the times (on here)....The facts do remain....GWB approval ratings are falling and that his mid 40's is not good (at all) for an incumbent.

[chimera]

Typically incumbents with approval ratings in the mid forties and lower have a tough time being re-elected. Kerry's marks aren't much better but then again they don't need to be much better, just better enough. The Bush team needs to take these results seriously and start making headway toward turning this around. Business as usual isn't going to cut it.

The question is, is this the trough, the nadir of his ratings, with nowhere to go but up, or is Bush teetering on the edge of a cliff, ready to take a serious tumble into the low forties or even thirty percentiles. Many on FR would like to believe the former. Unless the Bush advisers can come up with something dramatic to turn this trend around, I'm leaning toward the latter at this point, based on my own "polling" in a battleground state (i.e., listening to what people around me are saying).

[KQQL]

Remember:

If W's Average Approval Ratings just before election (Rasmussen and Dem or GOP polls don't count) is at or higher than 48.5%, W will win PERIOD !

However, if W's Average Approval ratings just before election (Rasmussen and Dem or GOP polls don't count) is lower than 48.5%, W will lose.
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So: If near the election, W's average approval rating is @ 48.5%, the results will be approx.

W 49.1%
Kerry 48.5%
Nader 1.6
Others 0.8

W/O Nader
W 49.5%
Kerry 49.4%
Others 1.1%