Remember:
If W's Average Approval Ratings just before election (Rasmussen and Dem or GOP polls don't count) is at or higher than 48.5%, W will win PERIOD !
However, if W's Average Approval ratings just before election (Rasmussen and Dem or GOP polls don't count) is lower than 48.5%, W will lose.
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So: If near the election, W's average approval rating is @ 48.5%, the results will be approx.
W 49.1%
Kerry 48.5%
Nader 1.6
Others 0.8
W/O Nader
W 49.5%
Kerry 49.4%
Others 1.1%
Why in the world do you believe this ... name the last two incumbent presidents to lose and what there approval ratings were: Carter and Bush SR. Both in the 30s