Rasmussen Daily Tracking (5/13): Bush - 46, Kerry - 46

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 5/13/04 | Scott Rasmussen

[So Cal Rocket]

Bush 46% Kerry 46% Other 3% Not Sure 4% RasmussenReports.com

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thursday May 13, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll is tied once again--Senator John F. Kerry and President George W. Bush each earn 46% of the vote.

Senator Kerry has now been ahead or tied for ten of the last eleven days.

The tracking poll results have been remarkably stable. For 14 of the past 15 days, Kerry has been at 45% or 46% of the vote. With the exception of a few days following the initial headlines of Iraqi prisoner abuse, President Bush has been between 44% and 46% for two full weeks.

In fact, looking at daily polls for more than 10 weeks, neither Bush nor Kerry has moved more than 3 percentage points up or down from the 45% mark. The survey margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points. The race was and is a toss-up.

The stability is also apparent in the President's Job Approval ratings which have generally stayed at 51% or 52% in April and May.

Interestingly, the election numbers have remained stable even though the President's ratings for handling the situation with Iraq have declined. Also, just 38% give the President good or excellent marks for handling the economy.

Supplemental data is available for RR Premium Members. Learn more about Premium Membership Today, at 3:00 p.m. Eastern, Rasmussen Reports will release survey results from a question asking if Defense Secretary Rumsfeld should resign. We also asked if the soldiers involved in prisoner abuse were acting on their own or following orders. Also at 3:00 p.m., Premium Members will receive our weekly Florida update.

The Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern. Results were not posted Monday because Rasmussen Reports did not conduct survey interviews on Mothers' Day.

Most Americans now say it is unlikely that Iraq will emerge as a peaceful nation enjoying freedom and democracy. Rasmussen Reports polling also found that just 46% of voters believe the United States and its allies are winning the War on Terror.

As Americans assess the economy, geopolitical events have overwhelmed Friday's report of job creation. The Rasmussen Consumer Index, a daily measure of the nation's economic confidence, has fallen for four straight days. Normally, that Index would have made double digit gains following a better than expected employment report.

A survey completed Wednesday and Thursday found that 48% of Americans believe the Iraqi prisoner abuse at Abu Ghraib represents an isolated event. However 29% believe such practices are fairly widespread. At the same time, public preference for Bush over Kerry on national defense issues has fallen to its lowest level of the year.

The national telephone survey of 1,500 Likely voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports over the past three nights. Margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Methodology

[KJacob]

Job approval over 50%, whereas the CBS poll had approval at 44%. I really want to know the difference in the two methods.

[mlbford2]

Kerry must suck so bad for this poll to be a dead heat. Bush is having some major problems and this dud of a candidate can't even pull ahead a little. If Bush would get his house in order, he would be killing K. The dems must know this guy is a huge stinker.

[mware]

Somebody better notify CBS.

[mlbford2]

One more thing, though. The new Kerry ads are pretty good IMO. Total BS, but good all the same. Iteresting to see what effect they will have.

[KJacob]

"Somebody better notify CBS."



It is interesting that the CBS poll did not ask any questions about Kerry. There were no comparisons?

[Meldrim]

Precisely what I was thinking. It is a good thing Bush is not running against Edwards. Three strikes: the man from Massachusetts, is arrogant, and a dishonest-liberal and he'll be paying for all three strikes.

[zarf]

Bush's house is in order but this election will be determined by external events.

Kerry is awful, just awful. Bush should be getting killed based upon the way news has been.

Everyone should buck up. We're lucky to have such a lame candidtate like Kerry.

I think the worst news is yet to come. I see Bush's approval numbers in the 30's before he turns it around in late August.

[gilliam]

Job approval over 50%, whereas the CBS poll had approval at 44%. I really want to know the difference in the two methods.

Statistical noise.

[epluribus_2]

AHHH! FREFALL!!!! (smirk)

[epluribus_2]

FREEFALL (using Autopreview again...)

[gilliam]

A survey completed Wednesday and Thursday found that 48% of Americans believe the Iraqi prisoner abuse at Abu Ghraib represents an isolated event. However 29% believe such practices are fairly widespread.

That is a 'gut' reaction because people don't trust other people and the press is hinting at it (or wishing it were so). Reports are coming out now that things are cleaned up. We will see how this flushes out in the next few weeks.

[gilliam]

A survey completed Wednesday and Thursday found that 48% of Americans believe the Iraqi prisoner abuse at Abu Ghraib represents an isolated event. However 29% believe such practices are fairly widespread.

That is a 'gut' reaction because people don't trust other people and the press is hinting at it (or wishing it were so). Reports are coming out now that things are cleaned up. We will see how this flushes out in the next few weeks.

[Bonaventure]

Didn't someone say in yesterday's Rasmussen thread that Rasmussen's most recent one-day sample had Bush at 39% and Kerry at 53%? Clearly that was wrong.

[Dawgreg]

Rasmussen contacts people..............CBS makes it up.........*~*

[DrDeb]

The difference is in the respondent 'sampling' and 'weighting':

CBS NEWS
one-day poll of 448 ADULTS

Weighted Respondents:
132 (29%) Republicans
162 (36%) Democrats
155 (35%) Independents

NOTE: Most experts believe that Republicans and Democrats have reached parity among voters; for this reason, Democrats should NOT be given a 7 pt advantage in any poll. Additionally, genuine Independents comprise only 7-10% of the voting public -- 35% is a GROSS over-representation and probably favors Democrats!
http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/CBSNews_polls/iraq_0512.pdf

RASMUSSEN
3-day poll of 1,500 LIKELY VOTERS

Weighting methodology unknown (at least by me)!

[epluribus_2]

well a big bias is that Rasmussen calls voters who own phones. That would cut out the large block of non-phone (and possibly non-shoe) owning voters that make up Kerry's base.

[Pikamax]

bttt

[TomEwall]

Is the weighted respondent after the weighting, or before?

[Ingtar]

Seems that about 2-3 weeks ago he was making the same comments about Bush being ahead or tied a bunch. He has to keep it close to sell those premium services.