But as the late great Sagan often said, despite the "billions and billions" of galaxies and stars out there, if we can't figger out how to get there, they obviously can't git HERE. Good thinkin', Carl.
Better brush up on your math a little bit. You are citing the gambler's fallacy. Vegas was built on it.
I love to read a proof for the non zero probability of intelligent life else where in the universe.
Does the fact that I exist and the largeness of the Universe mean that I also exist else where? I think not.
Let's take a look at a few of constraining factors that science thinks were necessary for me to exist.
a)Life on earth requires at least third generation star system, since life on earth requires a planet make with heavy elements. Ergo, life as we know it could not possibly exist in the early universe and maybe not even until serveral billion years ago. So if the Universe is 14 billion years old life was not possible in the first 7 billion years or so. So how many of those billions and billions of galaxies are over 7 billion years old? How many still exist today? point a cuts the probability in half.
b). Life as we know it is only possible in the outer edges of a galaxy, closer to the center the environment is to violent. b) cut the probability by 2/3. (1/2 * 2/3 = 1/6)
c). Life as we now it requires a Sun like star. While sun like stars are not unusual, not all or even most stars in the universe are sun like. c is another divide by 2 (1/6 * 1/2 = 1/12)
d. Life as we know it requires a planet orbiting in the middle of an inhabitable zone. Earth is right in the middle, Mars is just outside the outer edge and Venus just inside the inner edge. That makes the orbital zone about 70m miles to 110m miles. What is the probability of a planet forming in this zone? Well the Sun has nine and only one formed here so I could call it 1/9 but I'll call it 1/3 1/12 * 1/3 = 1/36
Now the planet must be solid a 50/50 based on the Sun so 1/36 * 1/2 = 1/64. And it must be of earth size another 50/50, 1/64 * 1/2 = 1/128.
The solid planet orbiting the inhabitable zone of smallish third generation star on the outer edge of a galaxy also needs a magnetic field to deflect the solar winds of it star, which if not deflected would fry any life. To have a magnetic field requires a hot iron core. That is at least a 1/2 and more likely a 1/10. 1/256,
and the planet needs to have water (lots of water) and and inert atmosphere. Another 1/2 at least. 1/512.
To protect the planet from cosmic collisions the planets solar system must contain number large outer planets. 1/1024.
The planet needs a large moon to generate the tidal forces that mix the soup, but a proper moon can only be created as a result of a planetary collision of a very special type. this has got to be a 1/1000. 1,024,000 drop in potability so far and I haven't even got to the
3 billion years of relative stable conditions needed to evolve intelligent life. What are the chances of a planet existing for 3 billion years without some terrible violent event like a local super nova? Gamma ray bust? huge collision? another 1 in a 1000.
Now we have a 1,024,000,000 drop in probability. Any we have not even looked at what it takes in terms of chemistry, assuming chemistry can make life happen, what are the chances of proper chemistry? Another 1 in 1000? OK, 1,024,000,000,000, that is a 1 trillion drop in probability.
I hope I have make my point. We are very very lucky to be here. And it is not at all certain that our kind of luck is common in the universe.