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Interesting thesis. The only thing he says that worries me is that Bush's current numbers -- generally in the mid-forties -- represent a ceiling, because Bush is a known commodity. I think he's wrong. Bush's numbers are depressed right now because so many voters persist in thinking that the economy is bad, but those voters cannot keep their heads in the sand forever. Sooner or later economic reality will set in. Still, I can't help but think it's a bit of a bad sign that the president isn't managing a slightly better showing than 46% or 47% in the RCP average.

Having Nader in the race makes the numbers look worse than they are. So around 47 isn't bad in and of itself, as it depends on how Nader is doing. If Nader gets a lot of votes because people or disenchanted with Kerry that's fine.

The point about the undecideds is well taken. If the undecideds break heavily for Kerry, that could indeed be trouble. However, Rasmussen's break up of the numbers indicates that Kerry's support is softer than Bush's, and those who comprise Kerry's support consist of a group which is more likely to move to Bush than Bush's group would move to Kerry (boy, that was well put!).

Let me explain this better. Bush's supporters consist of 80+% which are solid, and the remainder soft. Of these soft supporters, most are conservative. Kerry's support consists of 70+% which are solid, and the rest soft. Of these soft supporters, many are not liberal, hence more likely to move than Bush's soft supporters, which are mostly conservative.

Why is this important? Because when an undecided moves, that's only a 1 point swing. But when a soft supporter moves, that's a 2 point swing. So grabbing a soft supporter of the other guy is twice as important as grabbing an undecided. So even if the undecideds do break more for Kerry, Bush can make up for that by grabbing some of Kerry's soft support. This is why the negative ads are so important. To grab the soft supporters of the opponent.

biggest problem for Bush is that he cant even get the 48.5% he got in 2000 must less 50%

But Carter essentially quit the race in the early fall even refusing to debate Reagan in the first debate. Bush wont do that.

Kerry may win but not by 10% and 400EVs