[TomEwall]

Having Nader in the race makes the numbers look worse than they are. So around 47 isn't bad in and of itself, as it depends on how Nader is doing. If Nader gets a lot of votes because people or disenchanted with Kerry that's fine.

The point about the undecideds is well taken. If the undecideds break heavily for Kerry, that could indeed be trouble. However, Rasmussen's break up of the numbers indicates that Kerry's support is softer than Bush's, and those who comprise Kerry's support consist of a group which is more likely to move to Bush than Bush's group would move to Kerry (boy, that was well put!).

Let me explain this better. Bush's supporters consist of 80+% which are solid, and the remainder soft. Of these soft supporters, most are conservative. Kerry's support consists of 70+% which are solid, and the rest soft. Of these soft supporters, many are not liberal, hence more likely to move than Bush's soft supporters, which are mostly conservative.

Why is this important? Because when an undecided moves, that's only a 1 point swing. But when a soft supporter moves, that's a 2 point swing. So grabbing a soft supporter of the other guy is twice as important as grabbing an undecided. So even if the undecideds do break more for Kerry, Bush can make up for that by grabbing some of Kerry's soft support. This is why the negative ads are so important. To grab the soft supporters of the opponent.

[Nonstatist]

So grabbing a soft supporter of the other guy is twice as important as grabbing an undecided

Reagan beat Carter in '80 with a lot of soft supporters and a last minute surge of undecideds. If the news out of Iraq is consistently catastrophic (not there yet), then events will take care of themselves, and Kerry could win.

I am optimistic things will stabilize there after June 30. Thats my hope.