[Momaw Nadon]

I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 304 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 234 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 285.62 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Momaw Nadon]

Previous projections:

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

[Momaw Nadon]

[Izzy Dunne]

Not very many close calls - Wisconsin, New Mexico, Iowa = 22 votes total.

[rface]

interesting data. Missouri 65% of going to Bush. That about sums it up.

[Lunatic Fringe]

I dont know, my friend. That is a lot of swing states going Bush's way. I'd like to think they will, but it may be too much to hope for. I'm going to say Ohio would more likely be in Kerry's column. Possibly Pennsylvania as well.

Those would give the Presidency to Kerry.

[Future Useless Eater]

here's the trend shown graphically...
along with the recent Beltway Boys tallies...

Bush	(tradesports)	(BeltwayBoys)
Kerry	(tradesports)	(BeltwayBoys)

01.26

02.02

02.09

02.16

02.23

03.01

03.08

03.15

03.22

03.29

04.05

04.12

04.19

04.26

05.03

[Recovering_Democrat]

Bush has lost 10 EVs since last week. :(

[marblehead17]

ping

[macrahanish #1]

Bush's chance of winning PA is NOWHERE near 59% after his and Santorum's support of the RINO Specter in the primary.
I'll still vote for Bush, but he and the RNC will get no time or money from us.

[sully777]

Anyone ask the question whether a Hildacoup d' etat at the Dem Convention would change numbers?

[Mudboy Slim]

"Right's Winning"
(To be sung to R.E.M.'s "Nightswimming")

Fight Tyranny...Bold Warriors of the Right!!

We must ignore the Media Whore'd, they sold out long ago...
Spins the Truth backwards so the Sheeple doze.
Clinton, he ain't Right...to Tyrants, Liberty's a curse!
Nation needs The Right to lead her...we'll SLAUGHTER Hatred first...
That's our solemn pledge! Slick's goons must feel our might!!

Right's Winning...the Truth will come to light!!
Must make sure all the Sheeple understand.
We shan't let Traitors go...Bill Clinton must be caught!!
We'll avenge the Waco Slaughter...this Emperor, he's naked!
Bill's crimes won't go away...seek Justice ev'ryday!!
Right's winning...remember as we fight...
November's coming soon...Right's shooting for the moon!!

Slick, watch my dreams come true!!
Re-Impeached by Congress...convicted of Treason!!
Your vile style forever shunned...it's God's design...Right's Winning!!

Bill, your wife, she loathes you...Slick, we will soon judge...
Guilty of Vile Tyranny!! I sit here laughin' quietly...
MUD predicted this...Right's Winning!!

(Reprise)

Ignore the Left's protests...they love Slick 'cuz Left's ALL VILE!
Right's winning...come join the Noble Right...
Come join our Righteous Fight!!

FReegards...MUD