Specter Wins 51-49 Republican Senatorial Primary: live thread

4/27/2004 | self

[rudy45]

My apologies if a thread already exists. I did a search on "Toomey" and found nothing.

I arrived at my polling area (suburban Philadelphia) at 6:45 am to hand out palm cards. The weather is terrific this morning, but turnout (I thought) was light (I had to leave at 9:15, but will be back).

Actually, I have a good feeling about Pat.

[pollywog]

I agree with you concerning the power of prayer. I am praying today along with other believers for a win for Tommey.

[sharktrager]

Actually God has given us free will, so the results of the election do not mean God supports either candidate.

[jmc813]

NRA supports the Republican incumbents.

I am incredibly disappointed by their endorsement of Specter.

[adam_az]

I agree Phantom, just like any Democrat Specter has the ability to create 3-5 percent of the overall vote through fraud. If the race is within 5% on closing of the polls, Specter wins. Specter truly is a turd.

I loathe the Spectre, but accusing him of fraud is a little over the top. If you're so sure it's happening, please tell us who/where/how and then file a complaint! I am rooting for Toomey, but I think charging Specter with fraud is a little over the top.

[freedomcrusader]

The wife and I voted for Toomey and Castor at around 8:30 this AM.

Somone made a comment about light turnout, but I didn't hear any numbers.

Weather was nice this AM, now raining in Pittsburgh.

[Shooter 2.5]

Here's the chart.
http://www.awbansunset.com/senate.html

[PA Engineer]

I agree with your well reasoned analysis.

The people I met today were very motivated to get rid of Specter. I did not see or talk to a single Specter supporter and have been very involved in local Republican politics.

What I was surprised to find today was a normal Democratic turnout, with a very low (I was 167 out of what should have been in the 300+ range) Republican showing. I think your analysis is sound about the Specter supporters not being very motivated to turn out to vote.

Before anyone wonders about the land of Murrymom, I can assure you we are a very Republican dominated community in this neck of Westmorland County.

[chief911]

Based on the polls in 2000, I thought Bush had a chance in PA because Santorum had such a big lead. I didn't think that enough voters would split to give Gore the win. Turned out the polls were wrong and the race much closer. And in the end, a bunch of people did split their vote. I'm ready to get rid of Specter, but can't even guess the impact in NoV.

[arasina]

Good analysis. You convinced me to agree with your take on the PA election.

[adam_az]

However, a Toomey win will make PA a write-off in Nov. Specter on the ballot gives W a chance in PA. If W wins PA he wins the election! We need to keep Kerry out of the oval office more than kicking out Scottish Law Arlen from the Senate.

I don't buy that argument. the Spectre didn't help Bush win PA in the 2000 general - W lost PA! Toomey would turn out lots of 'rats - but also get the Conservative base energized. Considering that 'rats aren't enthusiastic about Kerry - and might not be motivated enough to go vote AGAINST Bush... it's at worst a wash. Plus, I'd hate to see the Speculum chairing the Judiciary committee!

[Francisco]

The NRA and the Citizen's Committee to Keep and Bear Arms have a higher results rating than the GOA could ever hope for.

Yea, if/when Specter wins, the NRA will declare it a "success" in their "results rating," and a loss by Toomey as a "failure" in the GOA's results ratings.

As I said, I'll never give another nickel to the NRA.

Specter's Smoking Gun

by Dimitri Vassilaros
Pittsburgh Tribune-Review
Friday, April 16, 2004

Gun Owners of America makes the National Rifle Association look like Neville Chamberlain at Munich.

People have been known to sell out whatever principles they have left for politics. Like the Republican Party hierarchy and the NRA endorsing U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter over U.S. Rep. Pat Toomey in the April 27 primary.

The GOA prefers to stick to its guns.

"Specter has always voted for gun owners -- when we do not need him, said Larry Pratt, executive director of the 300,000-member" organization. He describes it as a grassroots citizens' lobby for the Second Amendment since its founding in Virginia in 1975.

"(Specter) is the reason why the semi-automatic gun ban got out of committee and became law. He left the room so he would not be present to vote.

" In its endorsement, the NRA said that "Specter has stood for America's gun owners and sportsmen to protect our firearms freedoms, earning high ratings from the NRA for many years of support for the Second Amendment."

Well, not exactly.

Takes A Walk

From the July 21, 1989, Washington Post:

In yesterday's vote, the fate of the measure hung by a thread as Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Pa.), delayed by other business, came into the room just as DeConcini's proposal appeared headed for a one-vote victory. If Specter had voted with other Republicans, the proposal would have died in a tie vote, but Specter said he was not prepared to vote. Committee Chairman Joseph R. Biden Jr. (D-Del.) declared the measure approved and adjourned the meeting. After the session, NRA legislative director Wayne LaPierre accused Specter of 'taking a pass' on the issue.

The American Rifleman, a publication of the NRA, in a September 1989 story, "Specter Abstains in Critical Vote," suggested Specter stood still for America's gun owners. "Sen. Arlen Specter, an expected vote in favor of S. 1225, the Bush administration's crime-fighting package, and an almost certain vote against the gun ban, abstained from both votes.

And yet the GOA reminds us that Specter stood with President Bill Clinton by voting for the 1994 Clinton Crime Bill. That included the ban on so-called assault weapons.

Ridin' With Ted

Pennsylvania does not need another six years of Specter, Pratt said. "Toomey's appeal to mainline voters on gun issues is very significant. Specter is outside the mainstream. He convinces them every six years. You will find him at gun shows this year, but after that, he is back in the saddle another six years, back with Joe Biden and Ted Kennedy."

And back to being anti-gun, such as in 2002. Specter, along with a few other liberal senators, voted against allowing airline pilots to arm themselves in their cockpits.

If the NRA is Chamberlain, the GOA is Churchill. Attempts to reach a spokesman for the NRA were unsuccessful.

[Think free or die]

Your neighborhood sounds a lot like ours. We're in Montgomery County (suburban Phila), a stone's throw from Joe Hoeffel's hometown of Abington. We have several hotly contested races, and turnout at my polling place was reported to be "pretty good". In addition to the Toomey-Specter and Corbett-Castor races, we have contested primaries on both sides of the US House race. Melissa Brown and Ellen Bard have had a nasty primary season (with the nastiness coming from the former candidate). The two of them seem to have ignored Al Taubenberger, who is is the only pro-life candidate on the Republican side. Taubenberger has had limited visibility at this end of the Gerrymandered district. Tough to call any of these races based on what I'm seeing, but there have been a lot more yard signs for Toomey than for Specter.

[Shooter 2.5]

Specter has a pro-gun rating and he's the incumbrent.

The number one rule in politics is candidates who haven't occupied a particular seat are an unknown factor. You can't endorse someone based on campaign promises over someone who has delivered.

I think Toomey is going to win based on the low turnout but it will be a different story during the Fall elections. I hope Toomey's supporters don't fade away by November.

[TOUGH STOUGH]

Hoping and praying Toomey wins.

Go Toomey Go!!!!!!!!!!!!

[ZULU]

WHY on earth has the NRA endorsed SPECTER????

He'll give them federal judges who don't believe in the Bill of Rights.

Does PA have an official site I check tonight for the retunrs?

I'm not from PA but I'm praying for Toomey.

[jmc813]

You can't endorse someone based on campaign promises over someone who has delivered.

Toomey has served in the House for many years, and his pro-gun record there puts (R)len's record in the Senate to shame.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"I'll be voting in Bucks County tonight... "

---

Good for you. Please make sure to bring a few more conservatives to the polls.

Great to hear you'll be voting for Toomey. Don't forget to vote for Joe Montone for Congress. That Jim Greenwood is as bad of a RINO as Arlen Specter.

[Francisco]

Toomey has served in the House for many years, and his pro-gun record there puts (R)len's record in the Senate to shame.

Bump!

[Elle Bee]

I think the weather is going to be a factor in this horse race

I understand it is raining in Pittsburg ... moving east .... dark clouds looming to the west in Philly .... how's the weather look out on the quad?

.

[Tailback]

I posted "Has the ability" which I meant through his union friends. Whether or not fraud occurs I don't know, but let's just wait and see what happens in Philly this evening after polls close. If something fishy does happen, it will be because Specter made a deal "Too good to refuse" with the unions.

You're right though, accusing him now is incorrect. My disgust with Specter got the better of me.