SurveyUSA: Specter/Toomey Tied

SurveyUSA ^ | 4/26/04

[Dales]

Specter 48%, Toomey 48%. 4.6% MoE.

[undeniable logic]

I lived in Georgia for the first 24 years of my life (I am 25 now) and now live in Pittsburgh. I am working on convincing my parents and brother to go out and support Cain. Is there a chance that he could win the primary? I haven't read or heard anything about him up here, so I don't know what's going on. I would love to see him beat out Isakson.

[Coop]

Don't forget to vote today! :-)

[GEC]

I just smashed a bottle so that I could crawl across the broken glass on my way to the polls.

[Coop]

Why do you think that Specter will win by 6%?

Fred Barnes on FNC last night said the political crowd felt Spectre would hold on by about five points.

[guitfiddlist]

Between the broken glass and the weather - let's hope only the die-hard Toomey voters make it to the polls:

Severe Weather Alert from the National Weather Service

...ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ- CAPE MAY NJ-CARBON PA-CAROLINE MD-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA- COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA- DELAWARE BEACHES DE-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-HUNTERDON NJ- INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT MD-KENT DE-LEHIGH PA-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ- MONROE PA-MONTGOMERY PA-MORRIS NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHAMPTON PA- NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-QUEEN ANNE'S MD- SALEM NJ-SOMERSET NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SUSSEX NJ-TALBOT MD- WARREN NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ- 352 AM EDT TUE APR 27 2004
... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTEWERS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

[Coop]

If Specter's seat goes to the Democrat, George W. Bush will probably lose the Presidential election.

How did you reach that conclusion?

[twigs]

a "Conservatives for Hoeffel" campaign

Unfortunately, Hoeffel is a real leftist. Just way out in left field. If the dem was at least a moderate, I would consider voting against Specter if he wins today. But Hoeffel? You need to read up on him.

[jmc813]

And you wonder why some of us talk about "so-called conservatives". Anyone preferring a Democrat to a Republican, especially when it would mean turning the entire Senate over to the Democrats is NO conservative.

Answer the question about Tom McClintock that you've been dodging for months, then we'll talk.

[AuH2ORepublican]

" I am working on convincing my parents and brother to go out and support Cain. Is there a chance that he could win the primary?"

---

Yes, he has a very good chance. While I have not seen any polls, he is reputed to be in second place right now (behind the pro-abortion Johnny Isakson), with Isakson below 50%. If Isakson can't get to 50%+1 in the primary, he will be forced into a run-off against the second-place finisher (hopefully Cain, but maybe Mac Collins, who is a good candidate as well), and Isakson would be at a disadvantage in the low-turnout run-off in which conservatives will have just one candidate to rally around.

NewLand has a Herman Cain Ping List; if you'd like to join, please let him know.

BTW, I'm currently working on my aunt, who lives in Rome, GA, to vote for Cain. I promise to work extra hard if you bring out as many Pittsburghers as you can to vote for Pat Toomey today. : )

[AuH2ORepublican]

Severe weather throughout SE PA (i.e., RINO Country)? What a shame. I would have preferred if Arlen didn't have the weather to blame for his defeat. Then again, if victory has a thousand fathers, no reason why God shouldn't be one of them. : )

[FairOpinion]

Real conservatives voted for Schwarzenegger.

Only those who wanted Bustamante as CA governor voted for McClintock. Anyone for Bustamante is no conservative.

It's the same thing here.

Specter = 100% Republican win in November, high confidence in retaining Republican leadership in the US Senate.

Toomey = 50-50 shot or worse at Republican win in November, high probability of turning over leadership of the US Senate to the Democrats.

If we had a comfortable Republican majority in the Senate, I would think Toomey is worth a shot, but not when we are on the razor's edge and that may be the election that throws control of the Senate to the Democrats.

But we seem to have many people who have the audacity of claiming to be conservatives, while actually wanting and even admitting that they want the Democrats to win, just to take revenge on some Republican.

[USMA '71]

I voted for Pat Toomey @ 7:24 this morning. Hope other PA Conservatives do likewise.

[AuH2ORepublican]

FairOpinion, you are mistaken. Pennsylvania Republicans who are struggling with whether to support a real conservative or a more electable liberal need not fret. In Pat Toomey, we have the good fortune of having a candidate who is not only a true conservative, but also has a better chance of beating Democrat Joe Hoeffel in the general election than does Arlen Specter. And a Toomey nomination would greatly improve President Bush's chances of carrying PA, which would pretty much kill whatever chances Kerry has of becoming president.

In order for *any* Republican to win statewide in PA against a Montgomery County Democrat like Joe Hoeffel, he must win votes from blue-collar Democrats (who are disproportionately pro-life Catholics like Toomey) not only in the Pittsburgh area, but in the "T" as well. Arlen Specter is incapable of winning those votes, since he is pro-abortion and anti-gun and thus have nothing to offer those voters (and if they wanted to vote for someone who will raise taxes and toe the union line, they'd surely vote for the Democrat). Pat Toomey, on the other hand, has been elected and reelected in the blue-collar Lehigh Valley, centered in Allentown and Bethlehem, with similar demographics to the Pittsburgh-area districts held by Melissa Hart and Tim Murphy and to the one held by Rick Santorum before moving to the Senate (in fact, Toomey's district is less Republican than Hart's or Murphy's, although less Democrat than Santorum's old districts). Pat Toomey knows how to get blue-collar Democrat votes, and will beat Hoeffel just about everywhere outside of Philly and its close-in suburbs (well, Hoeffel will carry a few inner-city areas, but he is so brazenly anti-gun that he will get blown away in most of the "T"). Pat Toomey will win the general election, and given the fact that he's both more conservative and more electable than Specter, the choice is clear.

Some people point to Specter's easy victory in 1998 as evidence that he is more "electable," but Specter did not face a well-financed Democrat challenge that year, so it is silly to even look at those numbers. So let's look at the 1992 election, the last time Specter faced a strong challenge.

Specter won with 49.10% in the state, to Lynn Yeakel's 46.33%. Specter was below 50% overall even though he received 39.34% of the vote in Philadelphia (source: http://www.seventy.org/stats/1992GeneralResults.htm), which is a ridiculously high percentage for a "Republican" in a city in which Clinton beat George H.W. Bush by 68.16% to 20.90% in 1992 and in which Gore beat George W. Bush by 80.04% to 17.99% in 2000. It is risible to presume that Specter would be able to win such a high percentage in Philly this time around, since (i) Philadelphia has trended even more Democrat than it was in 1992, (ii) there is more political polarization today than back then, so there is less ticket-splitting among Philadelphia Democrats, and (iii) Joe Hoeffel is from Abington Township, just across the Montgomery County border, and represents most of Northeast Philadelphia (which is the least heavily RAT part of the city) in Congress. The same holds true in the close-in Philadelphia suburbs of Montgomery, Delaware and Bucks Counties, in which Specter won 54.40%, 53.17% and 50.72%, respectively, in 1992 (source: http://wilkes1.wilkes.edu/~wesp1/sen/PaSen1992.html), but have trended Democrat through the years and in 2000 these counties gave George W. Bush 43.81%, 42.66% and 46.29%, respectively. Outside of Philly and its 3 adjoining suburbs, Arlen Specter got only 49.97% in 1992, a pitiful percentage for a Pennsylvania Republican and much lower than Santorum's totals in his 2 statewide victories or even than Fischer's and Bush's losing statewide races.

Nowadays, because of demographic and political changes in Philadelphia, Montgomery, Delaware and Bucks Counties, Republicans can't carry Pennsylvania without getting at least 55% of the vote in the Pittsburgh area and in the "T." And for that, Republicans need to not only turn out their conservative base, but get votes from blue-collar Democrats, who are generally liberal on economic issues but pro-life, pro-gun and pro-military. Arlen Specter can't do either of those things, but Pat Toomey can, as he has proven in his blue-collar Democrat district in the Lehigh Valley. And if Bush carries PA in 2004 (as I think he will), it will be because he will increase his percentages among blue-collar Democrats, not because he can somehow convince pro-abortion, anti-gun and anti-military suburban RINOs to vote for him. While Bush and Toomey can get their share of suburban Philly votes because of issues such as national security, our road to victory in PA in 2004 goes through places like Allentown and Scranton and Wilkes-Barre and Erie and the Pittsburgh suburbs, not through Philadelphia and its RINO-infested close-in suburbs. President Bush would benefit if Toomey is nominated because it would guarantee overwhelming turnout from conservatives, while a Specter candidacy would just bring out pro-abortion RINO voters who would likely vote for Kerry.

So the choice is clear. If Pennsylvania Republicans want to win the 2004 elections, they need to support Pat Toomey in his primary challenge to Arlen Specter. GO, PAT, GO!

[hispanichoosier]

I echo the others on this thread who think you're wrong. I was actually in western PA this weekend (drove from Indy) to go door-to-door for Pat. Pat can appeal to blue-collar, conservative Dems in PA. Pat's GE opponent, Joe Hoeffel, was not the PA Dem Party's 1st choice. Hoeffel's pro-abortion, pro-gay, and anti-gun. Additionally, Toomey's got TONS of grassroots support.

[zbigreddogz]

Yet another tombot that doesn't get it.

THERE WAS NO FREAKING PRIMARY IN CALIFORNIA.

Geeze, is that so hard to understand? Really, it seems quite simple to me.

I wouldn't hold a grudge against McClintock supporters if they had backed such a man in the primary, that's understandable (although he still would have lost, say what you will, he proved it by losing TWICE before statewide), but in the freaking general, you wern't anything more then screeching R versions of Naderites.

[zbigreddogz]

If only...

Most of us have been saying that to him for years.

[NittanyLion]

Yet the actual results show McClintock would've won, if only folks like yourself supported the more conservative candidate. Too bad, but I suppose that's California's loss.

[Born to Conserve]

If Spector is elected in the fall, he will become chairman of the judiciary committee, wich means he will preside over the appointment of at least two Supreme Court Justices, perhaps more. If he is not elected, another more conservative republican will preside. It is simple.

I do not believe that the Toomey/Spector race will have a calculatable effect on Senate control, or on the Presidential election. For every argument saying Spector's win in the fall would be likely and positive for these, there is another argument saying Toomey's win in the fall would be likely and positive for them.

Spector is an evil Republican.

[Clintonfatigued]

That race was a cliffhanger, the closest of Specter's career. Here are the final results as of Wednesday at midnight:

Arlen Specter 538,449 50.6%
Patrick Toomey 526,840 49.4%

I'm satisfied. A moderate, pro-life 'Rat (like Bob Casey or Tim Holden) could have picked up disaffected Toomey voters. But Joe Hoeffel is far more appalling than Specter at his worst. So Specter will keep this seat from becoming very competitive this year, allowing Republicans to concentrate their resources elsewhere (like South Dakota). But he'll return as a lame duck who won't win another term in 2010. He can be replaced with a conservative then. Toomey is a force to be reckoned with, and will be heard from again. All in all, everyone comes out ahead from Toomey's near-win, except for the 'Rats and their minions.

[Clintonfatigued]

"In the event that Specter wins, I'm going to be organizing a Conservatives for Hoeffel campaign in the GE"


I hope that's a joke. If the 'Rats were running a pro-life moderate, you'd be justified in your decision. I would support Bob Casey over Specter, for example. But support a Kennedy/Pelosi/Kerry liberal like Joe Hoeffel? That doesn't begin to make sense.