Posted on 04/21/2004 5:41:47 PM PDT by shhrubbery!
Today: April 21, 2004 at 13:06:17 PDT
WYOMISSING, Pa. (AP) - Fourteen months ago, a conservative congressman set out on a seemingly quixotic quest to retire four-term Sen. Arlen Specter. The challenger had little money, scant name recognition and no support from party leaders.
Now, with less than a week to go before the state's April 27 Senate primary, Rep. Pat Toomey has come within striking distance of defeating Specter in what has become one of the nation's most closely watched GOP contests this year.
"I really believe we're going to win - despite pretty tough odds and pretty tough circumstances," Toomey, 42, said Wednesday at a Chamber of Commerce breakfast in the heart of Pennsylvania Dutch country.
This week, a poll showed Toomey trailing Specter, 74, by a mere 5 percentage points, compared with 15 points three weeks earlier.
From the start, Toomey has portrayed himself as an energetic, Harvard-educated former banker taking on a weathered senator; a firebrand conservative intent on retiring an old-guard moderate.
After bucking party bosses who urged him to drop his bid, the three-term Toomey has had to scrape up as much support as possible from like-minded conservatives who consider Specter a "RINO" - a Republican In Name Only - whose politics have strayed too far from the party line.
Specter has outspent Toomey more than 3-to-1 in the last 15 weeks, buying $7 million in TV ads. On Monday, he brought in President Bush to help him fend off Toomey in what even the senator admits could be the toughest primary battle of his career.
Specter was first elected to the Senate in 1980, after a career that included a year as assistant counsel on the Warren Commission and eight years as the Philadelphia district attorney.
He has long had a maverick streak that made him a target for Democrats and conservative Republicans alike. Specter's tough questioning of Anita Hill during the Clarence Thomas confirmation hearings in 1991, for example, put him on the hit list of liberal women's groups.
He has been challenged during every election - and generally cedes 35 percent of the vote, no matter who his opponents are.
The tightening race puts "all my supporters on notice that I've got a fight, which is what I've been saying all the time. The biggest problem I have is that my supporters think I have no problem," said Specter, who spent Wednesday rushing around Pennsylvania to tout his accomplishments - including the hundreds of millions of federal dollars he earmarks annually for state projects as chairman of a Senate Appropriations subcommittee.
Political experts say Specter is battling his own independent ideology as he seeks an unprecedented fifth term.
"Nobody should be surprised, in a state as conservative as Pennsylvania, that somebody such as Arlen Specter would be in a competitive primary race," said Pittsburgh-based GOP consultant John Brabender.
"Year after year, Arlen's strength is not necessarily within the Republican Party, but among independent and middle-of-the-road voters."
Toomey has galvanized conservatives by zeroing in on Specter's support for abortion rights and by describing the senator's spending habits as "pork" that bloats the federal deficit.
Still, Specter's politics have long been in line with Pennsylvania's tradition of electing moderates to statewide office. The late Sen. H. John Heinz III, also a Republican, showed a similar independent streak.
Toomey also faces another hurdle: a consensus that Specter would be a better GOP candidate in the general election.
"Most people agree that if Republicans want to hold this seat, Arlen Specter has the best chance of doing that," Brabender said.
The winner of the GOP primary will face three-term Rep. Joe Hoeffel; Democratic voters narrowly outnumber Republicans statewide.
Even Specter's supporters are unsure whether the senator can pull off a victory in a primary in which conservatives are expected to rally behind Toomey. Conservatives make up perhaps one-third of the state's 3.2 million Republican voters and generally outpoll moderates in GOP primaries.
"I think it's close," said Specter supporter Ben Barton, a 23-year old political science major at the University of Pittsburgh. "I've seen a lot of signs out for Toomey. I think it's a lot closer than Specter wants it to be."
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Specter campaign: http://specter2004.com
Toomey campaign: http://www.pattoomey.org
Then last weekend was in suburban Allentown area. Again saw quite a few Toomey signs.
I don't usually take a preponderance of yard signs as a harbinger of victory, but the AP seems to be worried!
Polls had the slippery-tongued Mario leading by a wide margin -- then he was beaten by the unknown, George Pataki. (Sadly Pataki was a RINO, but was at least a tad better than Mario.)
Heh. Thanks for the history. I thought it was coined here in NJ for the likes of Christie Todd Witless (Whitman).
That might have helped him in general elections, but I can't imagine that the hard-core union vote is a significant factor in GOP primaries.
I'm not from PA but have twice sent donations to Toomey's campaign.
Bush supporting Sphincter? Those RINOs really stick together.
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