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Bush-Cheney Strategy Memo on Recent Polls
George W. Bush ^
| April 20, 2004
Posted on 04/20/2004 10:27:34 AM PDT by RWR8189
TO: Campaign Leadership
FROM: Matthew Dowd, BC04 Chief Strategist
RE: Bush-Cheney Strategy Memo on Recent Polls
DATE: 4/20/04
New Polls: President Bush Shows Tremendous Resiliency; Kerry Shows Fundamental Weakness
- Despite pundit speculation that the President had been weakened over the course of the last month, the Presidents ballot position has improved, he shows tremendous strength over Kerry on handling terrorism and Iraq and he has made significant gains on handling the other important issues of the day.
- According to Gallup, the President holds a narrow lead over John Kerry. In yesterday's Gallup poll, the President leads John Kerry, 51% to 46%, among likely voters. Since the beginning of the general election race in early March, the President has gone from trailing Kerry by 8 points to leading him by 5a net increase of 13 points. This turnaround is confirmed by yesterday's ABC News/Washington Post poll which shows the President going from trailing Kerry by 9 points in early March to leading him by 1 point, 49% to 48%.
- The Presidents job approval rating remains strong. In yesterdays Gallup poll, 52% of Americans approve of the job President Bush is doing. This rating is in the same range as President Reagans 54% approval rating in April 1984 and President Clintons 56% approval rating in April 1996. This poll is also confirmed by the National Annenberg Election Survey which shows that the Presidents approval rating at 53%, and yesterdays ABC News/Washington Post poll that shows the Presidents approval rating at 51%.
- Despite the recent violence in Iraq, Americans are firm in their support for the Presidents policies. In yesterdays Gallup poll, a majority of Americans, 57%, support the US sending troops to Iraq. A similar number, 58%, believe the recent events in Iraq mean the US should intensify its military efforts, not scale them back.
- Americans are increasingly confident in President Bushs leadership on the economy. In yesterdays ABC News/Washington Post poll, the Presidents job approval on the economy increased by a net of 5 points since March and the number of Americans who say the economy is getting better increased by a net of 3 points. President Bushs approval on the economy in yesterdays Gallup poll increased to 46%, a net increase of 7 points since late March and exactly the same as President Clintons in the spring of 1996.
- Voters have more confidence in President Bush on the important issues of terrorism and Iraq. The President has retained his commanding 21-point lead over Kerry on terrorism in the ABC News/Washington Post poll. Interestingly, President Bush has gone from trailing Kerry by 1 point on handling Iraq in early March to leading him by 11 points today.
- In fact, as voters get to know John Kerry, they have less confidence in his ability to lead on the issues. Americans trust President Bush over John Kerry to handle the main challenges the nation will face by a margin of 49% to 44%, making for a net increase of 10 points since early March. On individual issues, the President now leads Kerry by 21 points on terrorism, 16 points on same-sex marriage, 11 points on Iraq, and 6 points on taxes.
- The Bush-Cheney campaign has been successful at defining the race. In focus groups recently conducted in Florida, Ohio, and Oregon by Democracy Corps, swing voters cited the Presidents resolve and steady leadership and saw John Kerry as indecisive and ready to raise taxes. Participants noted that:
He [President Bush] performs well under pressure. You know, and hes not afraid to make a tough decision. (Florida, non-college educated man)
He proved himself in a sticky situation and you don't know is this how the next person is going to handle it if it happens again, or something. (Ohio, non-college educated woman)
- Participants could not point to any core convictions that defined Kerry. Democratic pollster Stanley Greenbergs own analysis of the focus groups stated that voters were unable to cite Kerrys basic principles. He also noted that voters language reflected the [Bush] campaigns assertions as many people said Kerry flip flops on issues, is indecisive, and will raise taxes. Individual participants also made the following comments:
Well, he [Kerry] flips back and forth it seems. Initially, he was supposedly for us going to Iraq and now hes screaming for us to get out of there. (Oregon, college educated woman)
I heard that in the past he has voted for a lot of tax raises. (Florida, non-college educated woman)
"You got that vote for the taxes, the gasoline hike and now he switched back here. So, okay, where is he really on the gas hike? (Ohio non-college educated woman)
- Recent national polling confirms that Americans see John Kerry as unprincipled. In yesterdays ABC News/Washington Post survey, 79% of Americans believe that President Bush takes a position and sticks with it, while just 41% say the same of Kerry. The President also leads Kerry by 8 points on the attribute of always truthful in explaining his policies and by 6 points on is honest and trustworthy.
TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: bush43; gwb2004; kerry; polls
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To: proudpapa
You are right. So he was not nominated directly as a Senator. It is even rare that members of Congress even win a major party nomination.
21
posted on
04/20/2004 11:39:39 PM PDT
by
JLS
To: mwl1
You are not only correct, it is especially foolish for any party to nominate a member of the minority party in either Chamber of Congress... we will use the Senate rules to destroy him this summer and fall. A very good point.
22
posted on
04/21/2004 3:08:01 AM PDT
by
Coop
(Freedom isn't free)
To: GraniteStateConservative
I think everyone who had those kind of job approvals by mid-April went on to win. So, pop the cork! Wait a minute. Has it even been 72 hours since you were doomin' 'n gloomin' over his numbers?
I remain in the steady, boring, cautiously optimistic camp. :-)
23
posted on
04/21/2004 3:10:01 AM PDT
by
Coop
(Freedom isn't free)
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