What if 'they' stop coming

North County Times ^ | 20 Apr 04 | Raoul Lowery Contreras

[.cnI redruM]

They keep coming, men and women from rural Mexico, to North County to work in the flower fields of Carlsbad, the nurseries of Rainbow, the avocado groves of Fallbrook and sundry jobs throughout the area. Soon, however, we will see fewer of them coming to work. Wishful thinking? No. The supply of Mexican emigres to the United States will shrink in coming years. Hooray, some say. Others, "Be careful what you wish for; it may come true."

In a Wall Street Journal, Joel Millman writes about the plunging Mexican birth rate, a Mexican export industry fueled by the North American Free Trade Agreement, international capital rushing into Mexico and economic growth spreading south from the prosperous U.S.-Mexico border.

The declining Mexico City birth rate is spreading through the rural areas of Mexico that have long supplied the migration of young men to the north. The average of six births per Mexican mother in 1994 dropped to less than three by 1996. This is the result of a 20-year long rural birth control program hustled in every village by the Mexican government. Despite superficial opposition from the Catholic Church, the government has persisted and its efforts have worked.

The birth rate decline started in Mexico City, as much from urban crowding as from the pill. As Mexico City became perhaps the largest city in the world, birth rates dropped, as they have in other large cities where people have to work hard to survive. Women, who traditionally have not worked in many societies, such as the United States and Mexico, have to work in modern economies, and as they enter the work

force in large numbers, national fertility rates decline.

As Mexico's economy grows and modernizes, it creates more jobs. As the number of young people becomes smaller, fewer people will bid for more jobs. Wages will rise. Thus, the promise of NAFTA is

becoming real in Mexico. Mexicans will have all the jobs they can fill in Mexico and they won't have to come here looking for work. At least, that's the theory.

"For 15 years, the number of working-age Mexicans entering the labor force has stayed about the same, and we needed emigration to help our people find work," says Mexican demographer Agustin Escobar. "But now that we see growth of that working-age cohort is slowing, we can also see that the future is going to be quite different from what we saw in the 1980s and 1990s."

Escobar says that by 2010, Mexican emigrants to the United States will decline to a small number.

"In the next 15 years, (Mexicans) aren't going to cross the border just to get a job, but to get a better job, or to compete for a higher salary," says Jose Pescador Osuna, a deputy secretary in Mexico's Foreign Ministry.

What will happen then to the flower fields of Carlsbad, the nurseries of Rainbow, the groves of Fallbrook and the palatial gardens of Rancho Santa Fe and Fairbanks? Who will do the work in North County, pack the beef in Omaha, cut tobacco in Kentucky and pluck the chickens in North Carolina?

The work must be done. Will we have to bring in Chinese, like we did to build the railroad? Or will a new president next year construct a viable guest-worker program, a program that will legalize people willing to come north for better jobs and higher wages?

[.cnI redruM]

No one in fast food nation is going to be motivated.

[No_Outcome_But_Victory]

This statement would likely be found in some of the pro-slavery literature of the late 1850s.

Yes... I think if conservatives would better frame the argument against illegal immigration on these terms, we could win it.

[Modernman]

Rich, white liberals don't live in THAT America.

Of course, the dirty little secret is that rich, white conservatives also hire and/or benefit from the hiring of illegals. How many rich conservatives check whether their maid, nanny or gardener is here illegally? How many conservative meat-packing plant owners, construction contractors, landscapers etc. check their employees' papers?

Illegal immigration is a lot like illegal drugs: you'll never end either of them by targetting the supply. Only when the demand goes away will the supply dwindle. Certainly, border control is important, but the best way to deal with illegal immigration is to start enforcing the laws against hiring illegals.

Target the big companies that hire illegals and stick them with massive fines (IIRC, you can get up to $10,000 in fines for each illegal you knowingly hire). Start going after regular Americans who knowingly hire illegals- that illegal nanny stops being such a good deal if you have to pay a $10 K fine for hiring her.

[No_Outcome_But_Victory]

I'm 35. I would do a fast food job, or mow lawns if I had to. (And I just might since I've been a stay at home dad for a few years).

[Modernman]

The question is whether Americans are still willing to get dirt on their hands.

They don't have to be- if labor is too expensive, American companies will invest more money in labor-saving devices. Look at the auto industry- when labor costs got too high, the car-makers invested a ton of money in automated factories and robotics.

[.cnI redruM]

Very true. Robots and computers were invented to make up for the shortcomes inherent in hiring a human being.

[douglas1]

MY husband and I were living in the tri cities area of WASHINGTON STATE, we were both looking for better wages one cannot live on a military retirement alone, and we both were to young for social security ,so we have, and we will both work, but when we went to a meat packing plant right outside the tri cities area that was hiring and the wages were great and we put our applications in we looked around and seen alllllll hispanics, as you have probably guessed we were not hired, probably not given any consideration neither these employers love these people they can treat them like kaka and there will be no complaining because they are here illegaly anyway.

[.cnI redruM]

I always had fill out an I9 when I applied for work. I've never been allowed to take a job where my citizenship wasn't at least notionally vetted.

[Modernman]

employers love these people they can treat them like kaka and there will be no complaining because they are here illegaly anyway.

Bingo. Low wage workers who you can treat like crap. It's like the promised land for employers.

[Truth29]

Bump your reply for emphasis. Also, unfortunately, "they" won't stop coming, even if the birth rate in Mexico drops off. We are already seeing more and more illegals from countries south of Mexico coming into the US. They are basically being transshipped across Mexico. The tide of illegals won't stop until we get serious and both control our borders and punish those who hire illegals.

[spectre]

So I guess there goes the argument "Hispanics take jobs Americans don't want"..

Talk about discrimination. You experienced it first hand.

sw

[Modernman]

There's plenty of employers who don't bother with checking their employees' status. If you're a contractor, for example, you hire a bunch of illegals and pay them in cash. You then list them as "sub-contractors," rather than as "employees" when doing your paperwork. You don't have to check the immigration status of a sub-contractor.

Other companies just don't bother checking their employees' immigration background. They don't need to- there is a very small chance that they will get caught by the INS. Big corporations exert pressure on Senators and Congressmen (of both parties), who exert pressure on the INS to not do many raids on those corporations.

[.cnI redruM]

I would think this would have been all over '60 Minutes' or the 'O'Really Factor' years ago. It would be painfully easy to expose. Hire a guy to pose as a recent immigrant.\, have him wear a wire and record every step of the hiring process in 5 or 6 different suspected companies.

[Modernman]

I've seen a couple of stories like that over the last decade or so. The problem is, the media doesn't seem to have much interest in illegal immigration. Neither do our politicians including, seemingly, the President. This is one of those issues that the public and the elites are completely disconnected on, much like in Europe (until very recently).

[ExGeeEye]

I, for one, am. I require monetary compensation, however. A lot of business owners (including my present employer) balk at that. Perhaps supply (shortage) and demand will bring some around; the rest will fail.

[EagleMamaMT]

"The question is whether Americans are still willing to get dirt on their hands."

How many blue-collar workers do you know? I know plenty of them. I have two brothers who own their own small concrete curb-and-gutter business. They've been virtually driven out of business by illegals or other contractors that hire illegals so they can bid their jobs dirt cheap. I can assure there are plenty of Americans willing to get their hands dirty - they're just not willing to live 15 or 20 in a 2-bedroom house and work for $3 or $4 dollars an hour.

[TexasRepublic]

Wouldn't that be wonderful!