What if 'they' stop coming

North County Times ^ | 20 Apr 04 | Raoul Lowery Contreras

[.cnI redruM]

They keep coming, men and women from rural Mexico, to North County to work in the flower fields of Carlsbad, the nurseries of Rainbow, the avocado groves of Fallbrook and sundry jobs throughout the area. Soon, however, we will see fewer of them coming to work. Wishful thinking? No. The supply of Mexican emigres to the United States will shrink in coming years. Hooray, some say. Others, "Be careful what you wish for; it may come true."

In a Wall Street Journal, Joel Millman writes about the plunging Mexican birth rate, a Mexican export industry fueled by the North American Free Trade Agreement, international capital rushing into Mexico and economic growth spreading south from the prosperous U.S.-Mexico border.

The declining Mexico City birth rate is spreading through the rural areas of Mexico that have long supplied the migration of young men to the north. The average of six births per Mexican mother in 1994 dropped to less than three by 1996. This is the result of a 20-year long rural birth control program hustled in every village by the Mexican government. Despite superficial opposition from the Catholic Church, the government has persisted and its efforts have worked.

The birth rate decline started in Mexico City, as much from urban crowding as from the pill. As Mexico City became perhaps the largest city in the world, birth rates dropped, as they have in other large cities where people have to work hard to survive. Women, who traditionally have not worked in many societies, such as the United States and Mexico, have to work in modern economies, and as they enter the work

force in large numbers, national fertility rates decline.

As Mexico's economy grows and modernizes, it creates more jobs. As the number of young people becomes smaller, fewer people will bid for more jobs. Wages will rise. Thus, the promise of NAFTA is

becoming real in Mexico. Mexicans will have all the jobs they can fill in Mexico and they won't have to come here looking for work. At least, that's the theory.

"For 15 years, the number of working-age Mexicans entering the labor force has stayed about the same, and we needed emigration to help our people find work," says Mexican demographer Agustin Escobar. "But now that we see growth of that working-age cohort is slowing, we can also see that the future is going to be quite different from what we saw in the 1980s and 1990s."

Escobar says that by 2010, Mexican emigrants to the United States will decline to a small number.

"In the next 15 years, (Mexicans) aren't going to cross the border just to get a job, but to get a better job, or to compete for a higher salary," says Jose Pescador Osuna, a deputy secretary in Mexico's Foreign Ministry.

What will happen then to the flower fields of Carlsbad, the nurseries of Rainbow, the groves of Fallbrook and the palatial gardens of Rancho Santa Fe and Fairbanks? Who will do the work in North County, pack the beef in Omaha, cut tobacco in Kentucky and pluck the chickens in North Carolina?

The work must be done. Will we have to bring in Chinese, like we did to build the railroad? Or will a new president next year construct a viable guest-worker program, a program that will legalize people willing to come north for better jobs and higher wages?

[.cnI redruM]

Wouldn't that be awful. It would mark first time in twenty years that a white person has mowed a lawn in Beverly Hills.

[Wolfie]

The work must be done. Will we have to bring in Chinese, like we did to build the railroad? Or will a new president next year construct a viable guest-worker program, a program that will legalize people willing to come north for better jobs and higher wages?

Guess we'll have to do something crazy, like let the marketplace rule.

[neutrino]

Who will do the work in North County, pack the beef in Omaha, cut tobacco in Kentucky and pluck the chickens in North Carolina?

Ummm...Americans getting marginally higher pay than they are now? Ooooh, can't have that, now, can we?

[.cnI redruM]

Yeah, that would be a shocker. It amazes me that a country that spent the last year bellyaching about it's high unemployment could possibly have any jobs left for Mexicans to come in and take.

[.cnI redruM]

It amazes me that a country that spent the last year bellyaching about it's high unemployment could possibly have any jobs left for Mexicans to come in and take.

[fishtank]

I predict a host of labor saving devices invented and patented by Americans.

[usnret99]

Let's see how about kicking lazy people off of the Welfare gravy train...

[kaylar]

There are two poultry processing plants here in my town-a Tyson's and a Honeysuckle White. In the 1980s, kids who didn't want to go to college went there after graduation, and got reasonably decent pay and benefits. Starting in the early 1990s, local black and white workers were forced out of the plants by a variety of means, including physical assaults commited by the 'imported' labor (possibly at the behest of the managers, who at the very least turned a blind eye). Today the workforce there is nearly all "Hispanic", which in this case means illegal . The displaced workers have moved on or are trying to survive on Walmart/fast food/service jobs.

Who will do the work in North County, pack the beef in Omaha, cut tobacco in Kentucky and pluck the chickens in North Carolina?

That kind of nonsense makes me homicidal. The workers weren't "too proud or lazy" to do those jobs, they were thrown out like garbage. Any person who says "they only take the jobs Americans don't want" is a liar, and s/he KNOWS it's a lie. When translated , it really means,"anyone who does that kind of work is an illiterate trailer trash redneck, I hate people like that and it makes me happy to see them suffer."

[Wolfie]

I was thinking more along the lines of "If you're not paying enough for legal workers, you need to raise your wages".

[EagleMamaMT]

Boy, have you got these "Jobs Americans won't do" guys' numbers! Your post says it all.

[Marine Inspector]

Ping.

[Modernman]

Wouldn't that be awful. It would mark first time in twenty years that a white person has mowed a lawn in Beverly Hills.

There are many parts of the country where there are few, if any, illegals and lawns somehow still manage to get cut.

[kidd]

Who will do the work in North County, pack the beef in Omaha, cut tobacco in Kentucky and pluck the chickens in North Carolina?

This statement would likely be found in some of the pro-slavery literature of the late 1850s.

[CzarNicky]

"The work must be done. Will we have to bring in Chinese, like we did to build the railroad? Or will a new president next year construct a viable guest-worker program, a program that will legalize people willing to come north for better jobs and higher wages?"

Maybe Americans can do them.

[.cnI redruM]

Rich, white liberals don't live in THAT America.

[Mamzelle]

Dittoes--what has also steamed me about the employers of illegals is the air of charity they put on when they make slaves of them, burden the social services--"Oh, they're so eager to work."

Their eagerness makes the lawbreaking employers feel all warm and runny inside--"I'm so generous, so good to the poor downtrodden wetback..."

I really, honestly hear this sort of thing from people getting their lawns mowed for a disgracefully low sum of money--just because they're willing to break the law.

[Wolfie]

Imagine if it worked the other way. You walk into a Wal-Mart and decide the toasters are too expensive. So you steal it. Hiring illegals because you can't attract legal workers with what you're willing to pay is the same thing.

[.cnI redruM]

The question is whether Americans are still willing to get dirt on their hands.

[No_Outcome_But_Victory]

The question is whether Americans are still willing to get dirt on their hands.

Starvation is a motivator....

[Mamzelle]

Europe is always held up to us as some standard of excellence--well, in Europe you can still make a living (albeit subsidized) by working with your hands. Frankly, if we have to submit to being invaded and destabilized to keep the corporate bigshots happy, make me anti-corporate. How capitalistic is it, anyway, to be taxed to death to pay for workers' social services, so that the corporations can get by with not paying a certain wage?

Consider that a lot of this invasion is also financed by our recent tax cuts for the low-earning. They get a raise straight from Uncle Sam, which also benefits the lawbreaking employers. They pay very few taxes--only Social Security taxes are on a par with the rest of us. If a head of lettuce has to cost twice as much--that's just fine by me.