U.S. Jews, Arabs in vote flip-flop?

Post-Gazette ^ | 4-19-04 | Ann McFeatters

[veronica]

WASHINGTON -- In the 2000 presidential election, a majority of Jewish voters pulled the Democratic lever, and a majority of Arab Americans voted Republican. In 2004, the opposite could occur.

In the Nov. 2 election, which most experts expect to be close, such a seismic shift in voting patterns has political consultants for both candidates biting their nails.

This year many Jewish voters are leaning toward re-electing President Bush, who just broke with 35 years of U.S. policies to endorse a plan for Israel to withdraw from Gaza but maintain disputed Jewish settlements in territory in the West Bank claimed by Palestinians. Bush also rejected the Palestinians "right of return" to disputed territory where they lived before 1949.

[Betaille]

There has been so much inflammatory speculation about this. The fact is... Bush will get a slightly higher percentage of the jewish vote than last time, and probably a slightly lower percentage of arab vote. However this isnt some kind of seismic shift. Jews will still vote majority democrat and arabs will still vote majority republican... the margins will just be slightly smaller.

[Shryke]

The article is accurate; I have been hammering my Jewish liberal friends about his speech, and its ramifications (I know some parts of it are being rejected by Freepers, but that's basically the way it goes around here). Bush may be the most popular Republican president ever among liberal Jews.

[PeoplesRep_of_LA]

Hi veronica, my anti Passion of the Christ friend. Read this on Bennet's site this morning, another Religious Rightist like myself who sees the logic in support the Jews against the Eygptian/Jordanian deceivers. Interesting read;http://www.avot.org/stories/storyReader$65?print-friendly=true

[oceanview]

Bush will never get a majority of jewish votes - 35% would be a phenomenal number for him. In 2000, I believe he got 19%.

[CatoRenasci]

I gotta say that if Bush is popular among liberal jews, not one of the demographic groups with whom I often find myself in agreement on just about anything, it is worrisome.

[thoughtomator]

...among conservative Jews, too!

[ken5050]

Good article..a few observations, if I may:

1. This means that the dems can just about forget about Florida. It makes their electoral math much more difficult.

2. The Arab vote in the US isn't going to Kerry. THose here, other that the few who grab the headlines, know what freedom means..they live it, and they know the importance of what goes on in Iraq now. The idead that the majority of Arab-Americans will favor those who wanted to keep Saddam in power is inane..The Arab-Americans all came here because of terrible conditions..economic and political, back in the Mid-east..

3. Among Jews, it's understood, but unstated, that if you have to proclaim your support for Israel, it's the same thing as saying the "some of my best friends are Jewish"....It means they aren't, and you're really not....

[Tacis]

NEVER HAPPEN!!! Liberal Jewish voters, especially in NYC, will continue to vote for ultra-left wingers, no matter how illogical that may seem with respect to the issue of Israel. Sure, some may say they'll vote Republcan but, for those, check to see to whom they've given the most cash.

It is the same with black voters. The dems have seldom done anything for them but they will continue to vote for them in overwhelming majorities.

[Shryke]

Elucidate please?

[Dan from Michigan]

I expect a minor shift in the Arab vote and Jewish vote, and a major shift in the Muslim vote.

In Michigan, most Arabs are actually Christians and not Muslims. I don't expect major changes there. The Iraquis(both Christian and Muslim) I expect to go heavily for Bush and Muslims heavily for Kerry.

Among the Jewish vote, I think the ticket splitters may come through, but I don't expect 50%. Best scenario I see is 1980.

What will be interesting to see here is changes in Farmington Hills, Huntington Woods, Southfield(although it's mostly black now), and West Bloomfield(winnable) on one side, and Dearborn on the other.

[kimoajax]

Congenital Democrats

[Salman]

NEVER HAPPEN!!! Liberal Jewish voters, especially in NYC, will continue to vote for ultra-left wingers, no matter how illogical that may seem with respect to the issue of Israel. Sure, some may say they'll vote Republcan but, for those, check to see to whom they've given the most cash.

The givers of large amounts of cash are not most liberal Jewish voters in NYC, just some guys with a lot of money. For example Soros is "sort of" Jewish.

Among liberal Jewish voters in NYC who I know (and I am Jewish, from NYC, and used to be liberal), maybe half say they will vote for Bush. Not a scientific poll to be sure, but I say to you, prepare to be pleasantly surprised.

[Truth'sBabyGirl]

While I agree with you that many Arab-Americans support Bush's action in Iraq, I can personally speak for many who are outraged by Bush's siding with Isreal over the West Bank. However, since he probably wasn't depending heavily on the Arab vote in the first place, it probably won't make that much of a difference.
I am pretty upset with Bush over this issue, but since I'll never vote for a pro-choice candidate, he still has my vote this November.

[Torie]

Only about half of the caucasion Muslims in the US are Arab. I don't think the Bush vote will erode much among non Arab Muslims.

[RWR8189]

But the action further solidified Arab-American anger at Bush. Zogby told reporters he is "baffled" as to what Bush gained politically.

What this guy can't understand is that some people act on something because it is the right thing to do, not for political reasons.

[Plutarch]

The three legs of the Democratic financial stool have been Unions, Lawyers and Jews (I heard this on NPR the other day, so it must be true).

The votes matter, as voter turnout amongst Jews is very high, and the population is signficant in several competitive states (e.g. FL, OH, NJ.) But the financial backing is probably more important.

[tkathy]

IMHO Bush would have little to lose by sticking it to moderate Muslims that their best chance for their children is the WOT. Appeasing the terrorists will hurt Muslims far more than anyone else...

[CatoRenasci]

I was being a smarty-pants. But seriously, I rarely agree with liberals and some of the most egregious liberals I know happen to be jews.