Posted on 04/17/2004 1:06:19 AM PDT by sarcasm
GARRISONVILLE, Va. — When Paddy's Steakhouse & Pub opened in December 2002, a 12-ounce prime rib sold for $15.99. Today, after a run-up in beef prices and a growing clientele, the menu lists that same cut for $19.99.
"You don't want to change your prices because people will think that you're trying to rip them off," said owner Michael Brosnan, who absorbed the higher costs for several months before reprinting the menus. "But you've got to do what you've got to do."
With energy and raw-material costs on the rise and demand for goods and services picking up, gasoline, milk, soybeans, paper products, lodging and clothing all are more expensive this year. As economist Sherry Cooper sees it, there is "a whiff of inflation in the air."
Consumers affected
The ability to increase prices is good news for many U.S. industries after several tough years, but consumers hooked on cheap goods and low-interest rates are in for some disappointment, said Cooper, chief economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns Securities in Chicago.
The Labor Department reported this week that the Consumer Price Index as measure increased 0.5 percent in March, bringing the annual rate of growth for the first three months of the year to 5.1 percent, 2-½ times the rate in 2003.
The data surprised many on Wall Street, sending stock prices down and bond prices higher amid expectations that the Federal Reserve would begin raising short-term interest rates from record lows sooner rather than later.
Shoppers and small-business owners said the government report merely confirmed what they already knew. "Prices have definitely gone up," said Carolyn Parker, 50, who spent her lunch break the other day hunting for bargains at discount retailer Ross Dress For Less in Garrisonville, 40 miles south of the nation's capital. Major department stores such as Hechts and Belk routinely advertise sales, "but the list prices are a lot higher than they used to be," Parker said.
Timothy Baroody, director of economic development for the region, said home values have increased 34 percent since 2002, pushing up property taxes and other costs.
"Folks here have different views on what that means," Baroody said, drawing a distinction between longtime residents and affluent newcomers to this Washington suburb. "It makes me happy because my house is worth that much more. But there are older people living on fixed income, and that hits them differently."
Possible rising interest rates
Baroody said the prospect of increasing interest rates likely will force residential and commercial developers to re-evaluate the pace of growth in the region in the next 12 to 18 months.
When interest rates rise, "it immediately affects my digestion," said John Marshall Cheatwood, who opened a real-estate-services business in Stafford at the start of the year. "It's going to reduce the number of first-time home buyers," he said.
About 125 miles to the south and west of Garrisonville, the prospect of accelerating inflation seems less of a threat to Keith Dunn of Oak Hill Farms, which is enjoying some of the highest prices for soybeans in more than a decade. A year ago, the Sussex County farmer was earning razor-thin profits, hindered by increasing costs for diesel and fertilizer and recent agriculture legislation that made peanuts less profitable. Prices for soybeans and corn now are up more than 50 percent from last year, enabling Oak Hill to absorb those extra costs and earn the kind of money Dunn said he hasn't seen "in several years."
Indeed, the rising costs of soybeans and corn, which are fed to cattle, have made beef more expensive in the grocery and at restaurants such as Paddy's Steakhouse. Similarly, milk prices, which hit a 25-year low in 2003, have rebounded to record highs, as supplies tighten and the cost of feed increases. Nationwide, a gallon of milk averaged $3 at the beginning of April, up 15 cents from the previous month, and the Agriculture Department said dairy products could cost 4 percent to 6 percent more this year.
Even with the recent price increases, the consumer inflation rate remains low. The CPI rose 1.7 percent in the 12 months that ended in March, while the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 1.6 percent.
Economists expect the Federal Reserve to respond to these trends by increasing interest rates this summer.
While this could cause stock prices to retreat and the housing market to lose some steam, the modest inflation percolating nowadays is "a cause for celebration, not consternation," considering that some financial experts were worried a few months ago about deflation, which could put the economy into a tailspin, said Robert Barbera, chief economist at ITG/Hoenig in Rye Brook, N.Y.
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