Poll shows Bush ahead in Oregon

The Register-Guard ^ | April 15, 2004 | Jeff Wright

[Clinging Bitterly]

A couple of other threads have been posted about this, but I didn't see this particular article from the Eugene paper. It's always interesting (at least to me) to see how they report on events that don't especially please them (and this would most certainly be one of those events).

"It's also possible that Kerry's numbers in Oregon have inched upward since the UO survey was completed last Wednesday - before more political bad news that prompted Bush to hold a rare news conference to defend his policies in Iraq and anti-terrorism efforts at home."

Well, they can always hope, I guess. This paper hasn't given it's presidential endorsement yet (they would say it's way too early), but most of us around are are fairly sure of who it will endorse.

But hey as I have said on other threads over the past few months, Oregon is in play this year!

[Mr. Mojo]

Well, Bush has a better chance of winning your state than mine.

(I'm your neighbor to the north).

[TheBigB]

Thoughts?

[Betaille]

"Bush leads among voters between the ages of 18 and 44. Kerry leads among voters 45 and up, and among college-educated voters."
Another Myth about Conservatives debunked. Conservatives do NOT tend to be older... and they do NOT tend to be wealthy. I'm tired of hearing both of those fallacies. The liberal media uses them to paint Republicans in a certain way... and too many conservatives follow along with it.
The reality is that Conservatives today tend to be Younger, more working class/middle class. The wealthy snobs are almost all liberals.

[Smartass]

[TheErnFormerlyKnownAsBig]

If Bush takes Oregon Kerry will be getting steamrolled.

[JLS]

Dales had that poll in his last analysis:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1117618/posts

And as many like to point out, Bush would be further ahead among likely voters compared to this poll of registered voters. So Oregon is in play and probably Bush and Kerry how have about equal shots at it.

[LdSentinal]

The survey didn't mention Nader by name and represents only those who mentioned Nader by name, he said. He didn't include Nader because it's still unclear whether Nader will even appear on the ballot in Oregon, Bloom said.

Well, that explains why Nader is getting ONLY 1% in Oregon of all places

[JLS]

I do think Kerry especially as he refuses to say he will cut and run and want a tax cut for Haliburton etc. is in a dicey situation:

1. He makes it so that Nader will not drop out of the race.

2. He may chase some of his supporters to Nader.

3. If that then causes others to feel he can not win, even more might go over to Nader.

It could go really bad and snowball on Kerry.

[wingster]

Agreed. I have been one of the few thinking this is going to be a landslide of sorts however.

[Lancey Howard]

The survey of 444 registered voters shows Oregonians favoring President Bush over presumptive Democratic Party nominee John Kerry 47 percent to 45 percent - well within the poll's margin of error of 4.7 percent. Only 1 percent favored independent candidate Ralph Nader and 6 percent are undecided.

I believe that, historically, "undecided" tends to go heavily to the incumbent. Bush is looking landslide-ish.

[JLS]

I just noticed that this University of Oregon poll that was in your last weekly EC update posts was conducted between 19 March and 7 April. That is long time to survey 444 registered voters. What do you think?

What do they have 2 undergrads making 11 or 12 calls a night for 20 days in a row? Weird to say the least.

[JohnnyZ]

If Bush takes Oregon Kerry will be getting steamrolled.

Why would it be an indication of a blowout if a state that was a tie in 2000 -- decided by only 7000 votes -- swung the other way in 2004?

[CT]

If 2004 is anything like 2000, Bush will need to win by a bigger margin. That's because despite leading in the last hours before voting in 2000, Bush ultimately lost.

Not that there's anything wrong with Multnomah County leaving their main polling station open past closing. And those cars delivering votes by the bag-full wasn't really suspicious. Nor was Clinton hack and deputy secretary of state (the guy in charge of elections), Padddy McGuire, out of line when he publiclly assured Al Gore he 'would deliver Oregon."

No, if a voter can get past all that, there a lot of hanky panky that takes place here favoring Rats. And other than that, it's a wonderful place to live - now that the liberal infestation of the last decade is complete.

[Dales]

Sounds about right.

There are pros and cons to doing it this way. You get a result that is less a reaction to any single day's events, but you get a result that may already be slightly stale.

[onyx]

Never dreamed yall are living in Bush country.
If Oregon goes for POTUS...
'04 might be looking like a landslide.

[Coop]

Thoughts?

I expected Oregon to be competitive this year. So far no surprises, although I do wonder how Nader would have impacted the results.

[TheErnFormerlyKnownAsBig]

Because the anger on the left is a greater motivator for them than voting for Algore was in 2000. That state is Conservative economically, "moderate" socially, and liberal environmentally.

If Bush wins that state it means he's been successful defining hte election on his terms WoT/Taxes/Kerry's crap record on both. If Kerry wins the election in Oregon then it means the race will be close nationwide IMHO.

[Clinging Bitterly]

Bush is looking landslide-ish.

Maybe, we'll see what happens as events unfold. There are encouraging things in this article, and I particularly liked this tidbit:

"Bush easily beats Kerry in terms of party loyalty: 16 percent of Democrats say they'll vote for Bush, while only 5 percent of Republicans say they'll vote for Kerry."

That goes a long way toward offsetting the Democrats' small advantage in numbers here.

[Lady In Blue]

Thanks! I needed this very much.It sure lifted my spirits this evening!